Alcorn State Braves at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ETMcCamish Pavilion · at Georgia Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alcorn St and Georgia Tech
ALCN	This season	GT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GT 89–63 · win probability GT 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GT has more of the edges

ALCN 1, GT 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GTBig

GT offense vs ALCN defense

Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings

GTBig

ALCN offense vs GT defense

Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, GT the 78th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; GT 50.0 and allows 49.9

GTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, GT 29.9%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, GT 69.3%

GTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, GT 33.3. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, GT 34.2

ALCNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, GT 18.6%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, GT 15.6%

GTSmall

Home court

GT at home. This season: GT 0-0 at home, ALCN 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), GT 71.9 (38th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 33.7% and 33.1% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, GT 16%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, GT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GT -26.1	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	ALCN 62.7 · GT 88.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GT -15.4	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	ALCN 27.7 · GT 43.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN LLLWL	18-14	56%	11-9	—
GT LWLLW	13-18	42%	5-14	—

Venue/role: ALCN away; GT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN UUUOU	15-17	47%	9-23
GT OUUUO	18-13	58%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
GT	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alcorn St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ ISU	L68–132LO
Dec 13	@ FGCU	No recent meeting

Georgia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ MSST	L73–85LO
Dec 6	vs MUR	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs CIT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

32 games played

Straight up

9-23

28% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2328%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

L W L W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O U O U O U O O O O U O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@JKST	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@AAMU	W 64-62	+9.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	@ALST	L 66-81	+9.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsTXSO	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	vsPV	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 151
Jan 24	@FAMU	L 58-66	+8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	@BCU	L 73-82	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsSOU	W 78-73	+7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 2	vsGRAM	L 50-74	+5.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 7	@UAPB	L 77-84	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 161
Feb 9	@MVSU	W 74-66	-5.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	vsBCU	W 57-55	+8.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 112
Feb 16	vsFAMU	L 78-86	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsJKST	W 83-65	+1.5	W +19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@TXSO	L 87-92	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	@PV	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 123
Mar 3	vsMVSU	W 67-64	-9.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	vsUAPB	L 48-83	+1.5	L −33.5	145.5	U 131
Mar 9	vsALST	W 77-65	+7.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 10	vsPV	L 56-65	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

JKST

L 86-89

+2.5

AAMU

W 64-62

+11.5

ALST

L 66-81

−5.5

TXSO

L 71-72

+0.5

W 76-75

+3.5

FAMU

L 58-66

+0.5

BCU

L 73-82

+4.5

SOU

W 78-73

+12.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−18.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+0.5

MVSU

W 74-66

+2.5

BCU

W 57-55

+10.5

FAMU

L 78-86

−5.5

JKST

W 83-65

+19.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+0.5

L 51-72

−16.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−6.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−33.5

ALST

W 77-65

+19.5

L 56-65

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

JKST

L 86-89

+29.5

AAMU

W 64-62

−14.5

ALST

L 66-81

−4.5

TXSO

L 71-72

−3.5

W 76-75

−1.5

FAMU

L 58-66

−17.5

BCU

L 73-82

+7.5

SOU

W 78-73

+3.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−19.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+15.5

MVSU

W 74-66

−0.5

BCU

W 57-55

−32.5

FAMU

L 78-86

+26.5

JKST

W 83-65

−1.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+33.5

L 51-72

−27.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−8.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−14.5

ALST

W 77-65

+0.5

L 56-65

−21.5

over 15under 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia Tech

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W W W L W L W L W L W L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 31	@DUKE	L 79-85	+27.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsBC	W 65-53	-6.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsSYR	L 72-82	+2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@MIA	L 81-91	+15.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 14	vsPITT	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	@NCSU	W 78-74	+17.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 24	vsCLEM	L 63-77	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 27	@VT	L 65-71	+9.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNC	L 75-91	+9.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 4	@CAL	L 85-90	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	@STAN	L 72-95	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	vsWAKE	L 67-83	+3.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	@ND	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 18	vsUVA	L 68-94	+13.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	@LOU	L 70-87	+23.5	W +6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 28	vsFSU	L 71-80	+5.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	vsCAL	L 65-76	+2.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@CLEM	L 76-79	+15.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+21.5

W 65-53

+5.5

SYR

L 72-82

−7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+5.5

PITT

L 66-89

−21.5

NCSU

W 78-74

+21.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−5.5

L 65-71

+3.5

UNC

L 75-91

−6.5

CAL

L 85-90

+2.5

STAN

L 72-95

−13.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−12.5

L 74-89

−9.5

UVA

L 68-94

−12.5

LOU

L 70-87

+6.5

FSU

L 71-80

−3.5

CAL

L 65-76

−8.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+10.5

W 65-53

−27.5

SYR

L 72-82

+7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+15.5

PITT

L 66-89

+9.5

NCSU

W 78-74

−2.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−2.5

L 65-71

−19.5

UNC

L 75-91

+5.5

CAL

L 85-90

+22.5

STAN

L 72-95

+15.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−8.5

L 74-89

+12.5

UVA

L 68-94

+11.5

LOU

L 70-87

−10.5

FSU

L 71-80

−7.5

CAL

L 65-76

−13.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+9.5

over 18under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Georgia Tech 1, even 4

Alcorn StBetterGeorgia Tech

G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87

G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98

G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4

GTBig

F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74

C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45

No call

F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked

Alcorn StBetterGeorgia Tech

ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5

GTBig

GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1

ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9

GTBig

GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players

GTBig

Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

GTBig

Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Even

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestALCN betterGT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alcorn St

Guards

T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew

Forwards

M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew

Centers

C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew

Georgia Tech

Guards

N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew

Forwards

V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew

Centers

C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ALCN66.9 #335

GT73.8 #208

Points per possession

ALCN0.96 #352

GT1.03 #292

Pace (possessions)

ALCN69.7 #138

GT71.9 #38

Shooting

Effective FG%

ALCN47.7 #320

GT50.0 #234

3-point %

ALCN33.3 #209

GT35.1 #109

3-point attempt rate

ALCN33.7 #303

GT33.1 #313

Free throw rate

ALCN31.8 #259

GT33.3 #229

Possessions

Turnover rate

ALCN19.6 #340

GT18.6 #306

Offensive rebound rate

ALCN26.9 #297

GT29.9 #203

Assists per game

ALCN11.1 #333

GT15.8 #55

Defense

Points allowed

ALCN80.2 #322

GT77.4 #247

Points allowed per possession

ALCN1.15 #324

GT1.08 #148

Opponent effective FG%

ALCN55.0 #330

GT49.9 #94

Opponent 3-point %

ALCN33.0 #120

GT33.1 #134

Turnovers forced

ALCN18.1 #92

GT15.6 #244

Defensive rebound rate

ALCN64.5 #347

GT69.3 #189

Steals per game

ALCN7.7 #63

GT6.1 #229

Blocks per game

ALCN3.4 #162

GT3.9 #80

ALCN		GT
Scoring
66.9 #335	Points per game	73.8 #208
0.96 #352	Points per possession	1.03 #292
69.7 #138	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #38
Shooting
47.7 #320	Effective FG%	50.0 #234
33.3 #209	3-point %	35.1 #109
33.7 #303	3-point attempt rate	33.1 #313
31.8 #259	Free throw rate	33.3 #229
Possessions
19.6 #340	Turnover rate	18.6 #306
26.9 #297	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #203
11.1 #333	Assists per game	15.8 #55
Defense
80.2 #322	Points allowed	77.4 #247
1.15 #324	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #148
55.0 #330	Opponent effective FG%	49.9 #94
33.0 #120	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #134
18.1 #92	Turnovers forced	15.6 #244
64.5 #347	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #189
7.7 #63	Steals per game	6.1 #229
3.4 #162	Blocks per game	3.9 #80

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View56–65
Wvs Alabama St77–65
Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Clemson76–79
Lvs California65–76
Lvs Florida St71–80
L@ Louisville70–87
Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Alcorn State Braves at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

What could decide it: GT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alcorn St

Georgia Tech