1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. ALCN vs TXST
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Alcorn State Braves vs Texas State Bobcats

Thomas Assembly Center · Neutral site
#360ALCNAlcorn St
vs
#103TXSTTexas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ALCNThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 84–63 · win probability TXST 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

ALCN 1, TXST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TXSTBig
TXST offense vs ALCN defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ALCN 26.9%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: ALCN 64.5%, TXST 71.6%
TXSTBig
ALCN offense vs TXST defense
Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
ALCNBig
Three-pointers
ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 33.7% and 24.6% of their shots
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ALCN 11%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: ALCN 5, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TXSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ALCN plays 69.7 a game (138th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
ALCN has played the 266th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ALCN 31.8, TXST 34.0. Allowed: ALCN 39.4, TXST 39.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ALCN 19.6%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: ALCN 18.1%, TXST 18.5%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -20.5—
Total—147.1—
Projected score—ALCN 63.3 · TXST 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -12.0—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreALCN 28.4 · TXST 40.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Alcorn St 0, Texas St 2, even 3
Alcorn StBetterTexas St
G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4
TXSTBig
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45
TXSTBig
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
Alcorn StBetterTexas St
ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5
TXSTBig
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9
TXSTBig
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
TXSTBig
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestALCN betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Alcorn St
Guards
T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew
Forwards
M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew
Centers
C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ALCNTXST
Scoring
66.9 #335Points per game71.9 #247
0.96 #352Points per possession1.06 #230
69.7 #138Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
47.7 #320Effective FG%50.0 #238
33.3 #2093-point %32.2 #271
33.7 #3033-point attempt rate24.6 #364
31.8 #259Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
19.6 #340Turnover rate18.7 #309
26.9 #297Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
11.1 #333Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
80.2 #322Points allowed72.5 #117
1.15 #324Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
55.0 #330Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
33.0 #120Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
18.1 #92Turnovers forced18.5 #75
64.5 #347Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
7.7 #63Steals per game7.9 #41
3.4 #162Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Prairie View56–65
  • Wvs Alabama St77–65
  • Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
  • Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
  • L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.