Southern Jaguars at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 5:00 PM ETPinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern and Nebraska
SOU	This season	NEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 90–58 · win probability NEB 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

SOU 0, NEB 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEBBig

SOU offense vs NEB defense

Offense 296th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

NEBBig

NEB offense vs SOU defense

Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 309th, on the model’s ratings

NEBBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SOU 49.1 and allows 53.2; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1

Context

Schedule so far

SOU has played the 269th-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NEBBig

Three-pointers

SOU hits 34.8% and allows 36.7%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 32.0% and 51.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: SOU plays 72.3 a game (28th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points

NEBSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SOU 2%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: SOU 8, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

NEBSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SOU 16.6%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: SOU 18.6%, NEB 18.9%

NEBSmall

Home court

NEB at home. This season: NEB 0-0 at home, SOU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SOU 39.8, NEB 26.2. Allowed: SOU 42.9, NEB 25.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SOU 31.4%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: SOU 68.7%, NEB 72.6%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEB -32.5	—
Total	—	148.4	—
Projected score	—	SOU 57.9 · NEB 90.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -19.2	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	SOU 25.1 · NEB 44.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SOU WWLWL	12-19	39%	8-11	—
NEB WLWWL	19-16	54%	8-10	—

Venue/role: SOU away; NEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SOU UOOOU	20-11	65%	14-17
NEB OUUUO	11-24	31%	28-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ VAN	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ FRES	No recent meeting

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs OSU	W72–69WU
Dec 5	@ CREI	W71–50WU
Dec 8	@ PSU	W87–64WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SOU 0–2 NEBNEB leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · NEB has won the last 2 meetings · SOU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 30, 2024-25	SOU 43 @ NEB 77	NEB -21.5	NEB W
Nov 21, 2021-22	SOU 59 @ NEB 82	NEB -16	NEB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L L L W L L L L L W L L W W L W L W W W W L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

L W W L L L W W L L W L L W W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1165%

O O O U O O O U O U O O U U U U O O O O U O U O O O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ARK	L 77-109	+26.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 5	@MARQ	L 82-100	+24.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 18	@WASH	L 93-99	+23.5	W +17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 21	@SJSU	L 66-80	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 29	@NWST	W 75-73	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 8	@TEX	L 69-95	+22.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 164
Dec 10	@TXST	L 83-86	+3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 169
Dec 16	@CBU	L 67-75	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 21	@BAY	L 67-111	+26.5	L −17.5	169.5	O 178
Dec 29	@ILL	L 55-90	+33.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsTXSO	W 84-73	-6.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 5	vsPV	L 85-89	-7.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 174
Jan 10	@FAMU	L 59-67	-4.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 126
Jan 12	@BCU	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 150
Jan 17	@GRAM	W 71-53	+1.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 124
Jan 24	vsUAPB	L 74-75	-9.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 149
Jan 28	vsMVSU	W 80-69	-20.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 31	@ALCN	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 2	@JKST	W 96-91	-5.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 187
Feb 7	vsAAMU	W 81-68	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	vsALST	W 69-68	-6.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 137
Feb 14	@PV	W 87-82	-5.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 16	@TXSO	L 73-74	-4.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147
Feb 21	vsGRAM	W 87-73	-5.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 160
Feb 26	vsFAMU	L 71-82	-8.5	L −19.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 28	vsBCU	L 79-82	-2.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 161
Mar 3	@ALST	W 71-64	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 135
Mar 5	@AAMU	W 88-85	-1.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsUAPB	W 84-81	-4.5	L −1.5	151.5	O 165
Mar 13	vsFAMU	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 143
Mar 14	vsPV	L 66-72	-3.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARK

L 77-109

−5.5

MARQ

L 82-100

+6.5

WASH

L 93-99

+17.5

SJSU

L 66-80

−8.5

NWST

W 75-73

−1.5

TEX

L 69-95

−3.5

TXST

L 83-86

+0.5

CBU

L 67-75

+4.5

BAY

L 67-111

−17.5

ILL

L 55-90

−1.5

TXSO

W 84-73

+4.5

L 85-89

−11.5

FAMU

L 59-67

−12.5

BCU

W 77-73

+7.5

GRAM

W 71-53

+19.5

UAPB

L 74-75

−10.5

MVSU

W 80-69

−9.5

ALCN

L 73-78

−12.5

JKST

W 96-91

−0.5

AAMU

W 81-68

+6.5

ALST

W 69-68

−5.5

W 87-82

−0.5

TXSO

L 73-74

−5.5

GRAM

W 87-73

+8.5

FAMU

L 71-82

−19.5

BCU

L 79-82

−5.5

ALST

W 71-64

+8.5

AAMU

W 88-85

+1.5

UAPB

W 84-81

−1.5

FAMU

W 73-70

+1.5

L 66-72

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARK

L 77-109

+35.5

MARQ

L 82-100

+26.5

WASH

L 93-99

+34.5

SJSU

L 66-80

−4.5

NWST

W 75-73

+3.5

TEX

L 69-95

+5.5

TXST

L 83-86

+26.5

CBU

L 67-75

−13.5

BAY

L 67-111

+8.5

ILL

L 55-90

−18.5

TXSO

W 84-73

+3.5

L 85-89

+13.5

FAMU

L 59-67

−27.5

BCU

W 77-73

−1.5

GRAM

W 71-53

−29.5

UAPB

L 74-75

−5.5

MVSU

W 80-69

+7.5

ALCN

L 73-78

+3.5

JKST

W 96-91

+34.5

AAMU

W 81-68

+5.5

ALST

W 69-68

−12.5

W 87-82

+9.5

TXSO

L 73-74

−4.5

GRAM

W 87-73

+17.5

FAMU

L 71-82

+5.5

BCU

L 79-82

+7.5

ALST

W 71-64

−18.5

AAMU

W 88-85

+27.5

UAPB

W 84-81

+13.5

FAMU

W 73-70

+1.5

L 66-72

−7.5

over 20under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nebraska

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W W L W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L W L W L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsWIN	W 80-73	-14.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsUPST	W 72-63	-25.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCREI	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 10	vsWIS	W 90-60	-1.5	W +28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 13	@ILL	W 83-80	+9.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsUND	W 78-55	-29.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 133
Dec 30	vsUNH	W 86-55	-31.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsMSU	W 58-56	-2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	@OSU	W 72-69	+2.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 10	@IU	W 83-77	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsORE	W 90-55	-10.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	@NU	W 77-58	-4.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsWASH	W 76-66	-10.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 24	@MINN	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 27	@MICH	L 72-75	+11.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 147
Feb 1	vsILL	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 7	@RUTG	W 80-68	-12.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 10	vsPUR	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsNU	W 68-49	-13.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 17	@IOWA	L 52-57	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 21	vsPSU	W 87-64	-17.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 25	vsMD	W 74-61	-16.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 28	@USC	W 82-67	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 3	@UCLA	L 52-72	+1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsIOWA	W 84-75	-4.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPUR	L 58-74	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsTROY	W 76-47	-13.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 21	vsVAN	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 26	vsIOWA	L 71-77	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

WIN

W 80-73

−7.5

UPST

W 72-63

−16.5

CREI

W 71-50

+15.5

WIS

W 90-60

+28.5

ILL

W 83-80

+12.5

UND

W 78-55

−6.5

UNH

W 86-55

−0.5

MSU

W 58-56

−0.5

OSU

W 72-69

+5.5

W 83-77

+10.5

ORE

W 90-55

+24.5

W 77-58

+14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−0.5

MINN

W 76-57

+14.5

MICH

L 72-75

+8.5

ILL

L 69-78

−10.5

RUTG

W 80-68

−0.5

PUR

L 77-80

−5.5

W 68-49

+5.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−3.5

PSU

W 87-64

+5.5

W 74-61

−3.5

USC

W 82-67

+9.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−18.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+4.5

PUR

L 58-74

−11.5

TROY

W 76-47

+15.5

VAN

W 74-72

+3.5

IOWA

L 71-77

−7.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

WIN

W 80-73

−13.5

UPST

W 72-63

−22.5

CREI

W 71-50

−34.5

WIS

W 90-60

−8.5

ILL

W 83-80

+6.5

UND

W 78-55

−18.5

UNH

W 86-55

−5.5

MSU

W 58-56

−32.5

OSU

W 72-69

−14.5

W 83-77

+9.5

ORE

W 90-55

−1.5

W 77-58

−14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−10.5

MINN

W 76-57

−7.5

MICH

L 72-75

−10.5

ILL

L 69-78

−7.5

RUTG

W 80-68

+2.5

PUR

L 77-80

+10.5

W 68-49

−29.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−30.5

PSU

W 87-64

+3.5

W 74-61

−7.5

USC

W 82-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−20.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+22.5

PUR

L 58-74

−13.5

TROY

W 76-47

−16.5

VAN

W 74-72

−0.5

IOWA

L 71-77

+16.5

over 11under 24avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Southern 0, Nebraska 5, even 0

SouthernBetterNebraska

G J. Page TR12.3 pts · 2.2 reb · 2.5 ast Score 42

NEBBig

G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G D. Dormu TR5.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 2 ast Score 14

NEBBig

F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97

G M. Ferguson TR5.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9

NEBBig

F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77

F R. King TR4.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42

NEBBig

F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86

C I. Olajuwon TR3.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20

NEBBig

F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93

SouthernBetterNebraska

SOU offense296th of 366 · -9.2

NEBBig

NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1

SOU defense309th of 366 · -8.0

NEBBig

NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6

Backcourt-5.4 · 3 players

NEBBig

Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

NEBBig

Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players

Bench-3.3 · 4 players

NEBBig

Bench+1.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSOU betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Southern

Guards

J. Page30 min · TRD. Dormu19 min · TRM. Ferguson17 min · TRL. Larvadain11 min · TRS. Van Dorn3 min · TRJ. HunterNew

Forwards

R. King13 min · TRA. HallNew

Centers

I. Olajuwon14 min · TRN. Boyde11 min · TRL. Bell5 min

Nebraska

Guards

T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew

Forwards

P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SOU76.2 #136

NEB77.0 #116

Points per possession

SOU1.06 #239

NEB1.15 #61

Pace (possessions)

SOU72.3 #28

NEB67.3 #267

Shooting

Effective FG%

SOU49.1 #287

NEB55.5 #28

3-point %

SOU34.8 #129

NEB35.5 #91

3-point attempt rate

SOU32.0 #329

NEB51.1 #9

Free throw rate

SOU39.8 #61

NEB26.2 #356

Possessions

Turnover rate

SOU16.6 #169

NEB14.5 #44

Offensive rebound rate

SOU31.4 #144

NEB26.7 #306

Assists per game

SOU13.9 #156

NEB18.0 #10

Defense

Points allowed

SOU80.2 #324

NEB66.1 #14

Points allowed per possession

SOU1.11 #236

NEB0.98 #13

Opponent effective FG%

SOU53.2 #274

NEB48.1 #40

Opponent 3-point %

SOU36.7 #339

NEB30.5 #19

Turnovers forced

SOU18.6 #67

NEB18.9 #54

Defensive rebound rate

SOU68.7 #217

NEB72.6 #47

Steals per game

SOU8.3 #26

NEB7.1 #112

Blocks per game

SOU3.8 #97

NEB2.5 #303

SOU		NEB
Scoring
76.2 #136	Points per game	77.0 #116
1.06 #239	Points per possession	1.15 #61
72.3 #28	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #267
Shooting
49.1 #287	Effective FG%	55.5 #28
34.8 #129	3-point %	35.5 #91
32.0 #329	3-point attempt rate	51.1 #9
39.8 #61	Free throw rate	26.2 #356
Possessions
16.6 #169	Turnover rate	14.5 #44
31.4 #144	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #306
13.9 #156	Assists per game	18.0 #10
Defense
80.2 #324	Points allowed	66.1 #14
1.11 #236	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #13
53.2 #274	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #40
36.7 #339	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #19
18.6 #67	Turnovers forced	18.9 #54
68.7 #217	Defensive rebound rate	72.6 #47
8.3 #26	Steals per game	7.1 #112
3.8 #97	Blocks per game	2.5 #303

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View66–72
Wvs Florida A&M73–70
Wvs AR-Pine Bluff84–81
W@ Alabama A&M88–85
W@ Alabama St71–64

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa71–77
Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
Wvs Troy76–47
Lvs Purdue58–74
Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.

Southern Jaguars at Nebraska Cornhuskers

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern

Nebraska

Nebraska has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Southern

Nebraska