1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. SC vs USC
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

South Carolina Gamecocks vs USC Trojans

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#79SCSouth Carolina
vs
#36USCUSC AP #21
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SCThis seasonUSC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 81–73 · win probability USC 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

SC 0, USC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USCSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SC 13%, USC 64%. Transfers in: SC 6, USC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SC plays 68.8 a game (195th fastest), USC 72.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
USCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SC 27.2%, USC 32.4%. Defensive: SC 67.9%, USC 67.8%
USCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SC 36.7, USC 44.2. Allowed: SC 34.0, USC 33.4
USCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SC 50.3 and allows 51.6; USC 50.4 and allows 49.7
Even
SC offense vs USC defense
Offense 98th of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SC 14.4%, USC 17.4%. Forced: SC 14.6%, USC 16.4%
Even
USC offense vs SC defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 53rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
SC hits 31.1% and allows 31.8%; USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 44.4% and 34.1% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SC has played the 54th-hardest schedule, USC the 42nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USC -7.4—
Total—154.1—
Projected score—SC 73.4 · USC 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSC -4.3—
1H total72.0—
1H projected scoreSC 33.9 · USC 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: South Carolina 0, USC 4, even 1
South CarolinaBetterUSC
G S. Blakeney TR14.3 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 71
USCSmall
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
G K. Mincy TR14.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.9 ast Score 81
Even
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
F J. Necas TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 46
USCBig
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
F C. Heide TR5.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
USCBig
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
F A. Bieliauskas TR4.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 36
USCBig
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
South CarolinaBetterUSC
SC offense98th of 366 · -0.8
Even
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
SC defense53rd of 366 · +1.6
Even
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt+2.5 · 2 players
USCBig
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 3 players
USCBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
USCBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSC betterUSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Carolina
Guards
S. Blakeney34 min · TRK. Mincy34 min · TRG. Polk13 minD. Hannah13 min · TRE. Sparkman4 minM. JohnsonNew
Forwards
J. Necas25 min · TRC. Heide23 min · TRA. Bieliauskas20 min · TRH. Assemian10 minH. LopezNewJ. FernandezNew
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SCUSC
Scoring
74.9 #165Points per game77.8 #97
1.09 #161Points per possession1.07 #199
68.8 #195Pace (possessions)72.4 #25
Shooting
50.3 #226Effective FG%50.4 #225
31.1 #3173-point %31.7 #299
44.4 #803-point attempt rate34.1 #292
36.7 #137Free throw rate44.2 #8
Possessions
14.4 #39Turnover rate17.4 #228
27.2 #289Offensive rebound rate32.4 #113
13.3 #190Assists per game14.9 #92
Defense
76.5 #228Points allowed78.4 #277
1.11 #252Points allowed per possession1.08 #173
51.6 #188Opponent effective FG%49.7 #89
31.8 #56Opponent 3-point %30.9 #31
14.6 #314Turnovers forced16.4 #198
67.9 #263Defensive rebound rate67.8 #269
5.5 #295Steals per game6.2 #217
2.4 #317Blocks per game5.5 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Carolina

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma74–86
  • W@ Ole Miss64–61
  • Lvs Tennessee59–78
  • L@ Georgia68–87
  • Lvs Kentucky63–72

A week or more of rest.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.