1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. TXST @ LT
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Thomas Assembly Center · at Louisiana Tech
#103TXSTTexas St
@
#244LTLouisiana Tech
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TXSTThis seasonLT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 75–68 · win probability TXST 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

TXST 4, LT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TXSTBig
LT offense vs TXST defense
Offense 302nd of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TXST 69%, LT 11%. Transfers in: TXST 5, LT 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
TXST has played the 298th-hardest schedule, LT the 197th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TXSTSmall
TXST offense vs LT defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 184th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: TXST plays 68.2 a game (223rd fastest), LT 65.5 (332nd). Faster games mean more points
TXSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TXST 33.9%, LT 36.4%. Defensive: TXST 71.6%, LT 68.4%
LTSmall
Home court
LT at home. This season: LT 0-0 at home, TXST 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0; LT 47.4 and allows 48.7
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TXST 34.0, LT 33.1. Allowed: TXST 39.0, LT 36.3
Even
Three-pointers
TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%; LT hits 28.6% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 24.6% and 33.4% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TXST 18.7%, LT 18.2%. Forced: TXST 18.5%, LT 17.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -7.4—
Total—143.5—
Projected score—TXST 75.4 · LT 68

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -4.5—
1H total67.1—
1H projected scoreTXST 35.8 · LT 31.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas St 1, Louisiana Tech 0, even 4
Texas StBetterLouisiana Tech
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
TXSTSmall
G J. Fenner5.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
No call
G D. Bates NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
No call
G K. Tilley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
No call
F E. Blackmon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
No call
F L. Rowe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Texas StBetterLouisiana Tech
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
TXSTSmall
LT defense184th of 366 · -4.3
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
TXSTBig
LT offense302nd of 366 · -9.4
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestTXST betterLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
Louisiana Tech
Guards
J. Fenner22 minD. BatesNewK. TilleyNewJ. TylerNewJ. SandersonNewA. BoydNew
Forwards
E. BlackmonNewL. RoweNewB. WengerNewI. EmelifeNewI. FrancisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TXSTLT
Scoring
71.9 #247Points per game67.8 #318
1.06 #230Points per possession1.03 #284
68.2 #223Pace (possessions)65.5 #332
Shooting
50.0 #238Effective FG%47.4 #329
32.2 #2713-point %28.6 #359
24.6 #3643-point attempt rate33.4 #310
34.0 #211Free throw rate33.1 #234
Possessions
18.7 #309Turnover rate18.2 #283
33.9 #68Offensive rebound rate36.4 #21
12.7 #239Assists per game11.9 #297
Defense
72.5 #117Points allowed67.8 #30
1.06 #106Points allowed per possession1.04 #75
52.0 #210Opponent effective FG%48.7 #51
35.7 #293Opponent 3-point %33.9 #178
18.5 #75Turnovers forced17.9 #102
71.6 #81Defensive rebound rate68.4 #232
7.9 #41Steals per game6.8 #144
3.6 #120Blocks per game4.6 #31
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana Tech

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kennesaw St60–71
  • Wvs Missouri St69–66
  • Wvs MTSU80–69
  • W@ Delaware81–38
  • W@ Liberty76–71

A week or more of rest.