1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. BELL @ BTLR
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Bellarmine Knights at Butler Bulldogs

Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler
#295BELLBellarmine
@
#72BTLRButler
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BELLThis seasonBTLR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BTLR 90–68 · win probability BTLR 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 157.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges

BELL 1, BTLR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BTLRBig
BTLR offense vs BELL defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings
BTLRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BELL 22.4%, BTLR 34.5%. Defensive: BELL 65.8%, BTLR 70.0%
Context
Schedule so far
BELL has played the 229th-hardest schedule, BTLR the 56th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BTLRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: BELL 35.0, BTLR 42.1. Allowed: BELL 34.3, BTLR 24.9
BTLRBig
BELL offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BELL plays 66.7 a game (288th fastest), BTLR 71.1 (69th). Faster games mean more points
BELLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BELL 56%, BTLR 22%. Transfers in: BELL 1, BTLR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
BTLRSmall
Home court
BTLR at home. This season: BTLR 0-0 at home, BELL 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4; BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BELL 15.4%, BTLR 15.9%. Forced: BELL 15.1%, BTLR 15.1%
Even
Three-pointers
BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%; BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 41.2% and 35.0% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BTLR -21.6—
Total—157.9—
Projected score—BELL 68.1 · BTLR 89.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBTLR -12.7—
1H total73.8—
1H projected scoreBELL 30.5 · BTLR 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Butler has the better starters

Position by position: Bellarmine 0, Butler 4, even 1
BellarmineBetterButler
G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31
BTLRBig
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35
No call
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
BTLRSmall
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4
BTLRBig
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
BTLRBig
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
BellarmineBetterButler
BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3
BTLRBig
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2
BTLRBig
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players
BTLRBig
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players
BTLRBig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
BTLRSmall
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestBELL betterBTLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bellarmine
Guards
K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew
Forwards
S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELLBTLR
Scoring
78.9 #80Points per game79.4 #75
1.18 #34Points per possession1.12 #106
66.7 #288Pace (possessions)71.1 #69
Shooting
59.4 #3Effective FG%50.9 #199
38.1 #173-point %32.7 #242
41.2 #1453-point attempt rate35.0 #276
35.0 #178Free throw rate42.1 #29
Possessions
15.4 #100Turnover rate15.9 #131
22.4 #354Offensive rebound rate34.5 #58
14.8 #98Assists per game15.5 #64
Defense
83.3 #350Points allowed77.5 #252
1.25 #365Points allowed per possession1.09 #195
59.4 #365Opponent effective FG%51.9 #208
40.4 #364Opponent 3-point %33.3 #142
15.1 #277Turnovers forced15.1 #272
65.8 #320Defensive rebound rate70.0 #163
5.8 #255Steals per game6.5 #178
1.7 #356Blocks per game3.2 #191
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bellarmine

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas73–86
  • Wvs Jacksonville82–79
  • Wvs Austin Peay111–97
  • L@ North Alabama68–73
  • Lvs E Kentucky92–95

A week or more of rest.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.