1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. LEM @ MIZ
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Le Moyne Dolphins at Missouri Tigers

Mizzou Arena · at Missouri
#332LEMLe Moyne
@
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LEMThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIZ 88–61 · win probability MIZ 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIZ has more of the edges

LEM 0, MIZ 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
LEM has played the 344th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIZBig
LEM offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
MIZBig
MIZ offense vs LEM defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings
MIZSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LEM 19.1%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: LEM 15.0%, MIZ 16.6%
MIZSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LEM 25.2%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: LEM 71.0%, MIZ 68.3%
MIZSmall
Home court
MIZ at home. This season: MIZ 0-0 at home, LEM 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LEM 24%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: LEM 7, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LEM 39.5, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: LEM 32.7, MIZ 35.5
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: LEM plays 69.2 a game (168th fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 40.8% and 36.4% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIZ -26.9—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—LEM 60.7 · MIZ 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIZ -15.9—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreLEM 26.8 · MIZ 42.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Missouri has the better starters

Position by position: Le Moyne 0, Missouri 3, even 2
Le MoyneBetterMissouri
G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
MIZBig
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
Even
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
MIZBig
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27
MIZBig
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
Le MoyneBetterMissouri
LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8
MIZBig
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0
MIZBig
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
MIZBig
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
MIZBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench-6.1 · 5 players
MIZBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLEM betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Le Moyne
Guards
A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min
Forwards
K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew
Centers
P. Hartman9 min · TR
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LEMMIZ
Scoring
72.3 #234Points per game79.2 #78
1.04 #265Points per possession1.15 #65
69.2 #168Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
52.6 #118Effective FG%55.0 #36
34.3 #1523-point %35.0 #112
40.8 #1513-point attempt rate36.4 #240
39.5 #68Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
19.1 #323Turnover rate17.7 #255
25.2 #337Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
14.0 #149Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
73.9 #154Points allowed75.5 #204
1.07 #132Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
49.3 #75Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
36.0 #303Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
15.0 #289Turnovers forced16.6 #182
71.0 #107Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
5.5 #300Steals per game6.6 #162
3.3 #177Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stonehill71–81
  • L@ New Haven59–66
  • Wvs FDU76–59
  • L@ Stonehill68–77
  • L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.