1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. USA @ SMU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

South Alabama Jaguars at SMU Mustangs

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU
#227USASouth Alabama
@
#55SMUSMU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USAThis seasonSMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMU 86–65 · win probability SMU 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMU has more of the edges

USA 2, SMU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SMUBig
USA offense vs SMU defense
Offense 242nd of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
SMUBig
SMU offense vs USA defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 212th, on the model’s ratings
USABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: USA 38.5, SMU 30.4. Allowed: USA 25.4, SMU 32.1
Context
Schedule so far
USA has played the 223rd-hardest schedule, SMU the 70th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SMUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USA 25.0%, SMU 35.4%. Defensive: USA 68.6%, SMU 68.4%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: USA plays 67.1 a game (277th fastest), SMU 71.1 (68th). Faster games mean more points
USASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USA 13.1%, SMU 15.8%. Forced: USA 18.0%, SMU 16.8%
SMUSmall
Home court
SMU at home. This season: SMU 0-0 at home, USA 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
USA hits 34.5% and allows 33.1%; SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 36.5% and 35.9% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USA 52.6 and allows 50.1; SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USA 21%, SMU 20%. Transfers in: USA 0, SMU 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SMU -21.2—
Total—151.6—
Projected score—USA 65.2 · SMU 86.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSMU -12.5—
1H total70.9—
1H projected scoreUSA 29.2 · SMU 41.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

South Alabama has the better starters

Position by position: South Alabama 2, SMU 0, even 3
South AlabamaBetterSMU
G A. Goldstein NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
G A. Lewis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
G J. Langsy NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
F P. Law13.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
USASmall
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
F S. Williams6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.2 ast Score 84
USASmall
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
South AlabamaBetterSMU
USA offense242nd of 366 · -7.3
SMUBig
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
USA defense212th of 366 · -5.4
SMUBig
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
BackcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 2 players
USASmall
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSA betterSMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Alabama
Guards
A. GoldsteinNewA. LewisNewJ. LangsyNewS. ShoptawNewD. WilliamsNewD. RomanNew
Forwards
P. Law26 minS. Williams15 minL. KunzewitschNewO. KenneyNewR. WilliamsNewD. HueittNew
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USASMU
Scoring
73.2 #218Points per game84.1 #19
1.10 #139Points per possession1.19 #26
67.1 #277Pace (possessions)71.1 #68
Shooting
52.6 #120Effective FG%55.6 #27
34.5 #1463-point %37.1 #27
36.5 #2373-point attempt rate35.9 #252
38.5 #89Free throw rate30.4 #301
Possessions
13.1 #8Turnover rate15.8 #119
25.0 #341Offensive rebound rate35.4 #37
11.9 #287Assists per game16.9 #27
Defense
71.3 #85Points allowed77.9 #265
1.06 #100Points allowed per possession1.09 #199
50.1 #105Opponent effective FG%51.6 #189
33.1 #133Opponent 3-point %34.1 #188
18.0 #96Turnovers forced16.8 #171
68.6 #222Defensive rebound rate68.4 #237
7.9 #46Steals per game7.0 #129
2.2 #330Blocks per game3.6 #132
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Alabama

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Auburn67–78
  • Lvs GA Southern85–94
  • Lvs Southern Miss55–68
  • Wvs UL Monroe89–54
  • Wvs Troy65–54

A week or more of rest.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.