UCF Knights at Vanderbilt Commodores: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETMemorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt

#39UCFUCF

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UCF and Vanderbilt
UCF	This season	VAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 86–78 · win probability VAN 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 164.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

UCF 1, VAN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VANBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UCF 16.0%, VAN 13.5%. Forced: UCF 15.7%, VAN 17.7%

UCFBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UCF 35.0%, VAN 31.2%. Defensive: UCF 71.2%, VAN 68.5%

VANBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1; VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0

VANSmall

VAN offense vs UCF defense

Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings

VANSmall

Home court

VAN at home. This season: VAN 0-0 at home, UCF 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UCF 30.5, VAN 38.1. Allowed: UCF 34.9, VAN 39.5

Even

Three-pointers

UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%; VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 34.8% and 44.2% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

UCF has played the 41st-hardest schedule, VAN the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

UCF offense vs VAN defense

Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UCF 20%, VAN 26%. Transfers in: UCF 7, VAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: UCF plays 71.2 a game (63rd fastest), VAN 70.9 (80th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VAN -7.5	—
Total	—	164.0	—
Projected score	—	UCF 78.2 · VAN 85.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAN -4.3	—
1H total	76.6	—
1H projected score	UCF 36.1 · VAN 40.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LLWLW	16-17	48%	5-5	—
VAN WWLLL	18-18	50%	8-8	—

Venue/role: UCF away; VAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OUUUU	13-20	39%	21-12
VAN UOUUU	17-19	47%	27-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
VAN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UCF

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs BC	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs UGA	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs JAX	W86–66WO

Vanderbilt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ OSU	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs SOU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ ND	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UCF 0–1 VANVAN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UCF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2025-26	VAN 105 @ UCF 93	UCF +10.5	VAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UCF

33 games played

Straight up

21-12

64% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1264%

W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L L W W W L L L W W W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L W W L W L L W W W L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-2039%

O O U U O U O U U U O O U U U U U U O U O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193
Nov 29	vsVMI	W 82-57	-25.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 7	vsTOW	W 86-61	-9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 17	vsMER	W 81-63	-16.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	vsFGCU	W 102-80	-17.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 182
Dec 23	vsFAU	W 85-80	-8.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsKU	W 81-75	+4.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 156
Jan 6	@OKST	L 76-87	+1.5	L −9.5	175.5	U 163
Jan 11	vsCIN	W 73-72	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 14	@KSU	W 82-73	+2.5	W +11.5	170.5	U 155
Jan 17	vsARIZ	L 77-84	+9.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 161
Jan 20	@ISU	L 57-87	+14.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 144
Jan 24	@COLO	W 95-86	+3.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 181
Jan 27	vsASU	W 79-76	-6.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsTTU	W 88-80	+5.5	W +13.5	159.5	O 168
Feb 4	@HOU	L 55-79	+15.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 8	@CIN	L 72-92	+4.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsWVU	L 67-74	-3.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 17	vsTCU	W 82-71	+1.5	W +12.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 21	@UTAH	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 144
Feb 24	@BYU	W 97-84	+14.5	W +27.5	162.5	O 181
Feb 28	vsBAY	L 86-87	-1.5	L −2.5	159.5	O 173
Mar 3	vsOKST	L 104-111	-8.5	L −15.5	167.5	O 215
Mar 6	@WVU	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 139
Mar 11	vsCIN	W 66-65	+3.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsARIZ	L 59-81	+15.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 140
Mar 20	vsUCLA	L 71-75	+5.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

VMI

W 82-57

−0.5

TOW

W 86-61

+15.5

MER

W 81-63

+1.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+4.5

FAU

W 85-80

−3.5

W 81-75

+10.5

OKST

L 76-87

−9.5

CIN

W 73-72

−1.5

KSU

W 82-73

+11.5

ARIZ

L 77-84

+2.5

ISU

L 57-87

−15.5

COLO

W 95-86

+12.5

ASU

W 79-76

−3.5

TTU

W 88-80

+13.5

HOU

L 55-79

−8.5

CIN

L 72-92

−15.5

WVU

L 67-74

−10.5

TCU

W 82-71

+12.5

UTAH

W 73-71

+0.5

BYU

W 97-84

+27.5

BAY

L 86-87

−2.5

OKST

L 104-111

−15.5

WVU

L 62-77

−10.5

CIN

W 66-65

+4.5

ARIZ

L 59-81

−6.5

UCLA

L 71-75

+1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

VMI

W 82-57

−20.5

TOW

W 86-61

−1.5

MER

W 81-63

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+20.5

FAU

W 85-80

+2.5

W 81-75

−1.5

OKST

L 76-87

−12.5

CIN

W 73-72

−5.5

KSU

W 82-73

−15.5

ARIZ

L 77-84

−4.5

ISU

L 57-87

−12.5

COLO

W 95-86

+21.5

ASU

W 79-76

−6.5

TTU

W 88-80

+8.5

HOU

L 55-79

−12.5

CIN

L 72-92

+17.5

WVU

L 67-74

+0.5

TCU

W 82-71

−1.5

UTAH

W 73-71

−10.5

BYU

W 97-84

+18.5

BAY

L 86-87

+13.5

OKST

L 104-111

+47.5

WVU

L 62-77

−3.5

CIN

W 66-65

−18.5

ARIZ

L 59-81

−19.5

UCLA

L 71-75

−5.5

over 13under 20avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vanderbilt

36 games played

Straight up

27-9

75% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-975%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W W W L L L W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O O U O O U O O U U U O O U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIP	W 105-61	-26.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 8	@UCF	W 105-93	-10.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 12	vsEKU	W 92-62	-28.5	W +1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsUAPB	W 104-75	-41.5	L −12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 20	vsTXSO	W 109-74	-36.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsWKU	W 83-78	-18.5	L −13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsVCU	W 89-74	-6.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsSMC	W 96-71	-4.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	vsSMU	W 88-69	-10.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 157
Dec 13	vsCARK	W 83-72	-36.5	L −25.5	158.5	U 155
Dec 17	@MEM	W 77-70	-9.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 21	@WAKE	W 98-67	-5.5	W +25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 29	vsNHVN	W 96-53	-39.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 3	@SC	W 83-71	-9.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 7	vsALA	W 96-90	-3.5	W +2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsLSU	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	@TEX	L 64-80	-3.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsFLA	L 94-98	+1.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	@ARK	L 68-93	+1.5	L −23.5	173.5	U 161
Jan 24	@MSST	W 88-56	-7.5	W +24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 27	vsUK	W 80-55	-5.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsMISS	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsOU	L 91-92	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 10	@AUB	W 84-76	+3.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	vsTA&M	W 82-69	-7.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 151
Feb 18	@MIZ	L 80-81	-3.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsTENN	L 65-69	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 25	vsUGA	W 88-80	-7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 168
Feb 28	@UK	L 77-91	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@MISS	W 89-86	-7.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	@TENN	W 86-82	+2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 13	vsTENN	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsFLA	W 91-74	+7.5	W +24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 15	vsARK	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 161
Mar 19	vsMCN	W 78-68	-12.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 146
Mar 21	vsNEB	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+17.5

UCF

W 105-93

+1.5

EKU

W 92-62

+1.5

UAPB

W 104-75

−12.5

TXSO

W 109-74

−1.5

WKU

W 83-78

−13.5

VCU

W 89-74

+8.5

SMC

W 96-71

+20.5

SMU

W 88-69

+8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−25.5

MEM

W 77-70

−2.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+25.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

+2.5

ALA

W 96-90

+2.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

−2.5

ARK

L 68-93

−23.5

MSST

W 88-56

+24.5

W 80-55

+19.5

MISS

W 71-68

−7.5

L 91-92

−12.5

AUB

W 84-76

+11.5

TA&M

W 82-69

+5.5

MIZ

L 80-81

−4.5

TENN

L 65-69

−6.5

UGA

W 88-80

+0.5

L 77-91

−12.5

MISS

W 89-86

−4.5

TENN

W 86-82

+6.5

TENN

W 75-68

+8.5

FLA

W 91-74

+24.5

ARK

L 75-86

−13.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+11.5

UCF

W 105-93

+31.5

EKU

W 92-62

−14.5

UAPB

W 104-75

+6.5

TXSO

W 109-74

+18.5

WKU

W 83-78

−7.5

VCU

W 89-74

+1.5

SMC

W 96-71

+17.5

SMU

W 88-69

−8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−3.5

MEM

W 77-70

−12.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+0.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

−1.5

ALA

W 96-90

+9.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

+27.5

ARK

L 68-93

−12.5

MSST

W 88-56

−15.5

W 80-55

−20.5

MISS

W 71-68

−10.5

L 91-92

+23.5

AUB

W 84-76

−1.5

TA&M

W 82-69

−14.5

MIZ

L 80-81

+6.5

TENN

L 65-69

−16.5

UGA

W 88-80

+4.5

L 77-91

+10.5

MISS

W 89-86

+19.5

TENN

W 86-82

+21.5

TENN

W 75-68

−4.5

FLA

W 91-74

+3.5

ARK

L 75-86

−4.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−0.5

over 17under 19avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UCF 1, Vanderbilt 1, even 3

UCFBetterVanderbilt

G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52

VANBig

G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100

G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100

Even

G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86

F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87

UCFSmall

F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55

F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82

Even

F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90

F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70

Even

C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61

UCFBetterVanderbilt

UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0

Even

VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7

UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4

VANSmall

VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6

Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players

VANSmall

Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players

UCFSmall

Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.0 · 5 players

UCFSmall

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUCF betterVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UCF

Guards

C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew

Forwards

L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew

Centers

J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min

Vanderbilt

Guards

T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew

Forwards

S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew

Centers

B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UCF80.7 #53

VAN85.7 #14

Points per possession

UCF1.13 #77

VAN1.21 #9

Pace (possessions)

UCF71.2 #63

VAN70.9 #80

Shooting

Effective FG%

UCF52.6 #123

VAN55.3 #31

3-point %

UCF36.2 #49

VAN35.6 #86

3-point attempt rate

UCF34.8 #281

VAN44.2 #85

Free throw rate

UCF30.5 #295

VAN38.1 #101

Possessions

Turnover rate

UCF16.0 #137

VAN13.5 #15

Offensive rebound rate

UCF35.0 #47

VAN31.2 #158

Assists per game

UCF15.7 #56

VAN16.3 #40

Defense

Points allowed

UCF78.3 #274

VAN75.0 #187

Points allowed per possession

UCF1.10 #219

VAN1.06 #99

Opponent effective FG%

UCF52.1 #221

VAN49.0 #67

Opponent 3-point %

UCF33.9 #176

VAN32.6 #96

Turnovers forced

UCF15.7 #241

VAN17.7 #112

Defensive rebound rate

UCF71.2 #96

VAN68.5 #231

Steals per game

UCF5.6 #285

VAN7.9 #40

Blocks per game

UCF3.0 #225

VAN4.5 #36

UCF		VAN
Scoring
80.7 #53	Points per game	85.7 #14
1.13 #77	Points per possession	1.21 #9
71.2 #63	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #80
Shooting
52.6 #123	Effective FG%	55.3 #31
36.2 #49	3-point %	35.6 #86
34.8 #281	3-point attempt rate	44.2 #85
30.5 #295	Free throw rate	38.1 #101
Possessions
16.0 #137	Turnover rate	13.5 #15
35.0 #47	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #158
15.7 #56	Assists per game	16.3 #40
Defense
78.3 #274	Points allowed	75.0 #187
1.10 #219	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #99
52.1 #221	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #67
33.9 #176	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #96
15.7 #241	Turnovers forced	17.7 #112
71.2 #96	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #231
5.6 #285	Steals per game	7.9 #40
3.0 #225	Blocks per game	4.5 #36

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UCLA71–75
Lvs Arizona59–81
Wvs Cincinnati66–65
L@ West Virginia62–77
Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nebraska72–74
Wvs McNeese78–68
Lvs Arkansas75–86
Wvs Florida91–74
Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.

UCF Knights at Vanderbilt Commodores

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UCF

Vanderbilt

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UCF

Vanderbilt