Kentucky Wildcats vs Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETLucas Oil Stadium · Neutral site

#19UKKentucky AP #23

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kentucky and Indiana
UK	This season	IU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UK 81–77 · win probability UK 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 157.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

UK 1, IU 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UKSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UK 33.2%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: UK 70.0%, IU 70.8%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: UK plays 69.9 a game (123rd fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

UK has played the 5th-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UK 37.4, IU 35.0. Allowed: UK 36.4, IU 37.0

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UK 53.4 and allows 48.9; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0

Even

Three-pointers

UK hits 34.2% and allows 31.8%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 39.7% and 50.5% of their shots

Even

UK offense vs IU defense

Offense 13th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UK 26%, IU 19%. Transfers in: UK 6, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

IU offense vs UK defense

Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 32nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UK 15.4%, IU 15.1%. Forced: UK 15.5%, IU 15.1%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UK -4.3	—
Total	—	157.2	—
Projected score	—	UK 80.8 · IU 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -2.7	—
1H total	73.5	—
1H projected score	UK 38.1 · IU 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UK LWWWL	18-18	50%	4-4	—
IU LLWLL	14-18	44%	1-2	—

Venue/role: UK neutral site; IU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOUOU	18-18	50%	22-14
IU UUUOU	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
IU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs WICH	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ UVA	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs APP	No recent meeting

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs JAX	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs BGSU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs RUTG	W82–59WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UK 1–0 IUUK leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UK 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	IU 60 @ UK 72	UK -3.5	UK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kentucky

36 games played

Straight up

22-14

61% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-18

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1461%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W W L L L W W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L L W L W L L L W W W W L W W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1850%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O U O O U U O O U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163
Jan 7	vsMIZ	L 68-73	-12.5	L −17.5	150.5	U 141
Jan 10	vsMSST	W 92-68	-10.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 14	@LSU	W 75-74	-3.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Jan 17	@TENN	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsTEX	W 85-80	-7.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsMISS	W 72-63	-11.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 27	@VAN	L 55-80	+5.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	@ARK	W 85-77	+6.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 162
Feb 4	vsOU	W 94-78	-8.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 172
Feb 7	vsTENN	W 74-71	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 145
Feb 14	@FLA	L 83-92	+12.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsUGA	L 78-86	-6.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	@AUB	L 74-75	+3.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 24	@SC	W 72-63	-7.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsVAN	W 91-77	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@TA&M	L 85-96	+1.5	L −9.5	162.5	O 181
Mar 7	vsFLA	L 77-84	+5.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 11	vsLSU	W 87-82	-8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsMIZ	W 78-72	-2.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsFLA	L 63-71	+10.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 20	vsSCU	W 89-84	-3.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 22	vsISU	L 63-82	+5.5	L −13.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−17.5

MSST

W 92-68

+13.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+8.5

TEX

W 85-80

−2.5

MISS

W 72-63

−2.5

VAN

L 55-80

−19.5

ARK

W 85-77

+14.5

W 94-78

+7.5

TENN

W 74-71

+1.5

FLA

L 83-92

+3.5

UGA

L 78-86

−14.5

AUB

L 74-75

+2.5

W 72-63

+1.5

VAN

W 91-77

+12.5

TA&M

L 85-96

−9.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

−3.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+3.5

FLA

L 63-71

+2.5

SCU

W 89-84

+1.5

ISU

L 63-82

−13.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

MIZ

L 68-73

−9.5

MSST

W 92-68

+7.5

LSU

W 75-74

−2.5

TENN

W 80-78

+12.5

TEX

W 85-80

+12.5

MISS

W 72-63

−10.5

VAN

L 55-80

−20.5

ARK

W 85-77

+2.5

W 94-78

+19.5

TENN

W 74-71

−2.5

FLA

L 83-92

+20.5

UGA

L 78-86

+2.5

AUB

L 74-75

−4.5

W 72-63

−16.5

VAN

W 91-77

+10.5

TA&M

L 85-96

+18.5

FLA

L 77-84

−1.5

LSU

W 87-82

+17.5

MIZ

W 78-72

+1.5

FLA

L 63-71

−27.5

SCU

W 89-84

+15.5

ISU

L 63-82

−1.5

over 18under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W L L L L W W W L W W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L W W W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O U U U O U O O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 25	vsKSU	W 86-69	-10.5	W +6.5	164.5	U 155
Nov 29	vsBCU	W 100-56	-29.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 3	@MINN	L 64-73	-7.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLOU	L 78-87	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 9	vsPSU	W 113-72	-14.5	W +26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	@UK	L 60-72	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsCHST	W 78-58	-38.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsSIE	W 81-60	-21.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 4	vsWASH	W 90-80	-9.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@MD	W 84-66	-7.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsNEB	L 77-83	-4.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	@MSU	L 60-81	+6.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsIOWA	L 57-74	-3.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 20	@MICH	L 72-86	+15.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 23	@RUTG	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 27	vsPUR	W 72-67	+4.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 31	@UCLA	W 98-97	+3.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 195
Feb 3	@USC	L 75-81	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 156
Feb 7	vsWIS	W 78-77	-3.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 9	vsORE	W 92-74	-10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 166
Feb 15	@ILL	L 51-71	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 20	@PUR	L 64-93	+11.5	L −17.5	150.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsNU	L 68-72	-9.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 1	vsMSU	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsMINN	W 77-47	-7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 124
Mar 7	@OSU	L 78-91	+3.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsNU	L 61-74	-6.5	L −19.5	142.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

KSU

W 86-69

+6.5

BCU

W 100-56

+14.5

MINN

L 64-73

−16.5

LOU

L 78-87

−5.5

PSU

W 113-72

+26.5

L 60-72

−8.5

CHST

W 78-58

−18.5

SIE

W 81-60

−0.5

WASH

W 90-80

+0.5

W 84-66

+10.5

NEB

L 77-83

−10.5

MSU

L 60-81

−14.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−20.5

MICH

L 72-86

+1.5

RUTG

W 82-59

+15.5

PUR

W 72-67

+9.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+4.5

USC

L 75-81

−7.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+7.5

ILL

L 51-71

−11.5

PUR

L 64-93

−17.5

L 68-72

−13.5

MSU

L 64-77

−10.5

MINN

W 77-47

+22.5

OSU

L 78-91

−9.5

L 61-74

−19.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

KSU

W 86-69

−9.5

BCU

W 100-56

+7.5

MINN

L 64-73

−7.5

LOU

L 78-87

+2.5

PSU

W 113-72

+32.5

L 60-72

−24.5

CHST

W 78-58

−16.5

SIE

W 81-60

−4.5

WASH

W 90-80

+17.5

W 84-66

+2.5

NEB

L 77-83

+9.5

MSU

L 60-81

−4.5

IOWA

L 57-74

−15.5

MICH

L 72-86

−5.5

RUTG

W 82-59

−6.5

PUR

W 72-67

−11.5

UCLA

W 98-97

+50.5

USC

L 75-81

+2.5

WIS

W 78-77

−2.5

ORE

W 92-74

+22.5

ILL

L 51-71

−31.5

PUR

L 64-93

+6.5

L 68-72

−5.5

MSU

L 64-77

−3.5

MINN

W 77-47

−14.5

OSU

L 78-91

+20.5

L 61-74

−7.5

over 14under 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Kentucky 2, Indiana 2, even 1

KentuckyBetterIndiana

G A. Wilkins TR18.2 pts · 2 reb · 4.7 ast Score 81

IUSmall

G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98

G Z. Diallo TR15.7 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96

UKSmall

G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75

G J. Morton TR7.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 48

IUSmall

G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65

F M. Momcilovic TR16.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 97

Even

F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98

F J. McBride TR15.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 87

UKSmall

C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64

KentuckyBetterIndiana

UK offense13th of 366 · +9.5

Even

IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0

UK defense32nd of 366 · +3.5

Even

IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8

Backcourt+4.9 · 3 players

IUSmall

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+8.1 · 2 players

UKSmall

Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players

Bench+5.1 · 4 players

UKBig

Bench+0.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUK betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kentucky

Guards

A. Wilkins30 min · TRZ. Diallo30 min · TRJ. Morton25 min · TRK. Williams19 minM. WilliamsNewZ. HawthorneNew

Forwards

M. Momcilovic30 min · TRJ. McBride27 min · TRT. Noah11 minR. PotterNewO. N'DiayeNewB. HawthorneNew

Centers

F. Kepnang23 min · TRM. Moreno23 min

Indiana

Guards

M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min

Forwards

A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew

Centers

S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UK80.5 #55

IU78.2 #93

Points per possession

UK1.15 #57

IU1.16 #46

Pace (possessions)

UK69.9 #123

IU67.4 #260

Shooting

Effective FG%

UK53.4 #87

IU56.1 #22

3-point %

UK34.2 #158

IU34.7 #138

3-point attempt rate

UK39.7 #180

IU50.5 #14

Free throw rate

UK37.4 #119

IU35.0 #179

Possessions

Turnover rate

UK15.4 #98

IU15.1 #71

Offensive rebound rate

UK33.2 #84

IU26.9 #300

Assists per game

UK15.9 #50

IU16.6 #34

Defense

Points allowed

UK74.3 #167

IU72.2 #109

Points allowed per possession

UK1.06 #115

IU1.07 #131

Opponent effective FG%

UK48.9 #63

IU49.0 #68

Opponent 3-point %

UK31.8 #55

IU33.1 #128

Turnovers forced

UK15.5 #248

IU15.1 #284

Defensive rebound rate

UK70.0 #158

IU70.8 #122

Steals per game

UK7.0 #123

IU4.7 #348

Blocks per game

UK4.6 #33

IU2.7 #278

UK		IU
Scoring
80.5 #55	Points per game	78.2 #93
1.15 #57	Points per possession	1.16 #46
69.9 #123	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #260
Shooting
53.4 #87	Effective FG%	56.1 #22
34.2 #158	3-point %	34.7 #138
39.7 #180	3-point attempt rate	50.5 #14
37.4 #119	Free throw rate	35.0 #179
Possessions
15.4 #98	Turnover rate	15.1 #71
33.2 #84	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #300
15.9 #50	Assists per game	16.6 #34
Defense
74.3 #167	Points allowed	72.2 #109
1.06 #115	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #131
48.9 #63	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #68
31.8 #55	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #128
15.5 #248	Turnovers forced	15.1 #284
70.0 #158	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #122
7.0 #123	Steals per game	4.7 #348
4.6 #33	Blocks per game	2.7 #278

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kentucky

22-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State63–82
Wvs Santa Clara89–84
Lvs Florida63–71
Wvs Missouri78–72
Wvs LSU87–82

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern61–74
L@ Ohio State78–91
Wvs Minnesota77–47
Lvs Michigan St64–77
Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.

Kentucky Wildcats vs Indiana Hoosiers

What could decide it: UK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kentucky

Indiana

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kentucky

Indiana