1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. MVSU @ ARK
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Arkansas Razorbacks

Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
#366MVSUMiss Valley St
@
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MVSUThis seasonARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 103–54 · win probability ARK 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

MVSU 0, ARK 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARKBig
ARK offense vs MVSU defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, ARK the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARKBig
MVSU offense vs ARK defense
Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
Three-pointers
MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 30.2% and 33.0% of their shots
ARKBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8
ARKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, ARK 32.0%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, ARK 69.1%
ARKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, ARK 35.9. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, ARK 31.2
ARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, ARK 12.2%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, ARK 15.5%
ARKSmall
Home court
ARK at home. This season: ARK 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), ARK 73.8 (12th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, ARK 19%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, ARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -49.3—
Total—157.3—
Projected score—MVSU 54 · ARK 103.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -29.2—
1H total73.5—
1H projected scoreMVSU 22.1 · ARK 51.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, Arkansas 1, even 4
Miss Valley StBetterArkansas
G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
ARKBig
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
Miss Valley StBetterArkansas
MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5
ARKBig
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3
ARKBig
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players
ARKBig
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestMVSU betterARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miss Valley St
Guards
T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew
Forwards
T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew
Centers
T. WuNew
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MVSUARK
Scoring
63.2 #356Points per game90.2 #2
0.90 #364Points per possession1.23 #3
70.2 #111Pace (possessions)73.8 #12
Shooting
45.2 #359Effective FG%56.4 #16
29.5 #3463-point %38.2 #16
30.2 #3513-point attempt rate33.0 #315
33.9 #215Free throw rate35.9 #155
Possessions
21.9 #361Turnover rate12.2 #1
26.4 #313Offensive rebound rate32.0 #121
11.9 #296Assists per game17.2 #20
Defense
83.7 #353Points allowed81.0 #333
1.20 #355Points allowed per possession1.09 #213
55.5 #341Opponent effective FG%51.8 #201
37.2 #346Opponent 3-point %31.8 #54
17.1 #142Turnovers forced15.5 #246
64.5 #346Defensive rebound rate69.1 #197
7.1 #119Steals per game7.3 #96
2.6 #300Blocks per game5.2 #12
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Grambling52–77
  • L@ Jackson St77–85
  • L@ Alcorn St64–67
  • W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
  • L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.