1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. MVSU @ UNM
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at New Mexico Lobos

The Pit · at New Mexico
#366MVSUMiss Valley St
@
#82UNMNew Mexico
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MVSUThis seasonUNM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 94–56 · win probability UNM 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

MVSU 0, UNM 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNMBig
Three-pointers
MVSU hits 29.5% and allows 37.2%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 30.2% and 41.9% of their shots
UNMBig
UNM offense vs MVSU defense
Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 366th, on the model’s ratings
UNMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MVSU 45.2 and allows 55.5; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5
UNMBig
MVSU offense vs UNM defense
Offense 366th of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MVSU has played the 327th-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MVSU 26.4%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: MVSU 64.5%, UNM 72.3%
UNMBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MVSU 21.9%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: MVSU 17.1%, UNM 19.0%
UNMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MVSU 33.9, UNM 35.8. Allowed: MVSU 50.8, UNM 33.3
UNMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MVSU 0%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: MVSU 2, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UNMSmall
Home court
UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, MVSU 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MVSU plays 70.2 a game (111th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNM -38.5—
Total—149.7—
Projected score—MVSU 55.6 · UNM 94.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNM -22.8—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreMVSU 23.6 · UNM 46.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: Miss Valley St 0, New Mexico 1, even 4
Miss Valley StBetterNew Mexico
G T. Foster TR5.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
UNMBig
G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G T. James TR0.5 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
G E. Pippins NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54
G A. Abrams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93
F T. Williams NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
Miss Valley StBetterNew Mexico
MVSU offense366th of 366 · -17.5
UNMBig
UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9
MVSU defense366th of 366 · -14.3
UNMBig
UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6
Backcourt-2.1 · 4 players
UNMBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestMVSU betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Miss Valley St
Guards
T. Foster20 min · TRT. James3 min · TRE. PippinsNewA. AbramsNewM. AngloNewC. CameronNew
Forwards
T. WilliamsNewQ. PangNewG. MartinezNewH. WilsonNewM. McCoyNew
Centers
T. WuNew
New Mexico
Guards
J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew
Forwards
T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MVSUUNM
Scoring
63.2 #356Points per game80.8 #52
0.90 #364Points per possession1.14 #70
70.2 #111Pace (possessions)70.7 #87
Shooting
45.2 #359Effective FG%53.5 #82
29.5 #3463-point %35.6 #83
30.2 #3513-point attempt rate41.9 #136
33.9 #215Free throw rate35.8 #160
Possessions
21.9 #361Turnover rate14.9 #59
26.4 #313Offensive rebound rate30.6 #176
11.9 #296Assists per game14.8 #104
Defense
83.7 #353Points allowed71.6 #96
1.20 #355Points allowed per possession1.01 #36
55.5 #341Opponent effective FG%49.5 #84
37.2 #346Opponent 3-point %30.5 #20
17.1 #142Turnovers forced19.0 #50
64.5 #346Defensive rebound rate72.3 #57
7.1 #119Steals per game7.9 #43
2.6 #300Blocks per game2.7 #274
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Miss Valley St

2-30 in 2025-26 overall · 2-17 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Grambling52–77
  • L@ Jackson St77–85
  • L@ Alcorn St64–67
  • W@ AR-Pine Bluff70–69
  • L@ Grambling62–83

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa69–74
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
  • Wvs G Washington86–61
  • Wvs Sam Houston107–83
  • Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.