South Carolina Upstate Spartans at The Citadel Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 12:00 AM ETMcAlister Field House · at The Citadel

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC Upstate and The Citadel
UPST	This season	CIT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIT 73–72 · win probability CIT 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UPST 1, CIT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: UPST plays 70.5 a game (97th fastest), CIT 66.1 (313th). Faster games mean more points

UPSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0; CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5

CITSmall

Home court

CIT at home. This season: CIT 0-0 at home, UPST 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

UPST has played the 281st-hardest schedule, CIT the 233rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UPST 29.2%, CIT 27.9%. Defensive: UPST 68.6%, CIT 68.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UPST 9%, CIT 18%. Transfers in: UPST 3, CIT 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

UPST offense vs CIT defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%; CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 35.6% and 47.8% of their shots

Even

CIT offense vs UPST defense

Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: UPST 32.8, CIT 30.0. Allowed: UPST 36.0, CIT 33.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UPST 18.1%, CIT 16.3%. Forced: UPST 16.5%, CIT 14.8%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CIT -0.7	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	UPST 72.3 · CIT 73

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CIT -0.3	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	UPST 33.8 · CIT 34.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	7-9	—
CIT LLWWW	15-15	50%	6-6	—

Venue/role: UPST away; CIT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19
CIT OUOOO	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CIT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs WGA	L64–72LU
Dec 2	vs GASO	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ NCCU	W82–67WO

The Citadel

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ HPU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ CHSO	L86–96LO
Dec 5	@ WCU	L49–87LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

The Citadel

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W L W L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L L L L L L W W W L L W L W W W W L W W L W L L W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U U O U O U U O O O U O O U U U U O U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 4	@DAV	L 63-79	+18.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 13	@SC	L 55-71	+22.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 17	@COFC	L 78-82	+17.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 20	@RICH	L 56-80	+18.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 30	vsETSU	L 49-74	+12.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsWOF	L 86-95	+9.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 181
Jan 7	@MER	L 63-101	+16.5	L −21.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsWCU	W 79-77	+6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 15	@UNCG	L 66-69	+9.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	@VMI	W 82-68	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsFUR	W 77-75	+11.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@ETSU	L 55-84	+17.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 29	vsVMI	W 80-56	-2.5	W +21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNCG	W 71-66	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	@SAM	L 64-78	+13.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 142
Feb 7	@UTC	W 78-71	+9.5	W +16.5	142.5	O 149
Feb 11	@WCU	L 49-87	+9.5	L −28.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsMER	L 54-70	+11.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 124
Feb 19	vsSAM	L 75-78	+10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 21	vsUTC	L 72-93	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 25	@FUR	L 51-72	+15.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 123
Feb 28	@WOF	W 93-90	+11.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 183
Mar 6	vsUTC	W 88-85	+7.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsETSU	L 76-83	+14.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

DAV

L 63-79

+2.5

L 55-71

+6.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−5.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−12.5

WOF

L 86-95

+0.5

MER

L 63-101

−21.5

WCU

W 79-77

+8.5

UNCG

L 66-69

+6.5

VMI

W 82-68

+20.5

FUR

W 77-75

+13.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−11.5

VMI

W 80-56

+21.5

UNCG

W 71-66

+7.5

SAM

L 64-78

−0.5

UTC

W 78-71

+16.5

WCU

L 49-87

−28.5

MER

L 54-70

−4.5

SAM

L 75-78

+7.5

UTC

L 72-93

−16.5

FUR

L 51-72

−5.5

WOF

W 93-90

+14.5

UTC

W 88-85

+10.5

ETSU

L 76-83

+7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

DAV

L 63-79

+4.5

L 55-71

−15.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−10.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−17.5

WOF

L 86-95

+36.5

MER

L 63-101

+16.5

WCU

W 79-77

+7.5

UNCG

L 66-69

−13.5

VMI

W 82-68

+6.5

FUR

W 77-75

+9.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−2.5

VMI

W 80-56

−6.5

UNCG

W 71-66

−10.5

SAM

L 64-78

−4.5

UTC

W 78-71

+6.5

WCU

L 49-87

−9.5

MER

L 54-70

−23.5

SAM

L 75-78

+9.5

UTC

L 72-93

+20.5

FUR

L 51-72

−20.5

WOF

W 93-90

+34.5

UTC

W 88-85

+24.5

ETSU

L 76-83

+19.5

over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The Citadel has the better starters

Position by position: SC Upstate 0, The Citadel 1, even 4

SC UpstateBetterThe Citadel

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 13

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

No call

G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 17

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 19

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

CITSmall

F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 32

SC UpstateBetterThe Citadel

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Even

CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

Even

CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

UPSTBig

Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

CITSmall

Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUPST betterCIT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

The Citadel

Guards

E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min

Forwards

R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min

Centers

Y. AnsongNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UPST71.0 #265

CIT68.3 #309

Points per possession

UPST1.00 #324

CIT1.03 #283

Pace (possessions)

UPST70.5 #97

CIT66.1 #313

Shooting

Effective FG%

UPST48.3 #307

CIT49.5 #265

3-point %

UPST31.4 #308

CIT32.0 #283

3-point attempt rate

UPST35.6 #256

CIT47.8 #26

Free throw rate

UPST32.8 #239

CIT30.0 #309

Possessions

Turnover rate

UPST18.1 #274

CIT16.3 #156

Offensive rebound rate

UPST29.2 #231

CIT27.9 #270

Assists per game

UPST11.7 #304

CIT12.2 #272

Defense

Points allowed

UPST75.7 #210

CIT78.9 #293

Points allowed per possession

UPST1.08 #170

CIT1.20 #357

Opponent effective FG%

UPST51.0 #156

CIT57.5 #361

Opponent 3-point %

UPST35.6 #289

CIT36.6 #335

Turnovers forced

UPST16.5 #185

CIT14.8 #306

Defensive rebound rate

UPST68.6 #224

CIT68.5 #227

Steals per game

UPST6.1 #220

CIT5.2 #318

Blocks per game

UPST4.7 #24

CIT2.5 #304

UPST		CIT
Scoring
71.0 #265	Points per game	68.3 #309
1.00 #324	Points per possession	1.03 #283
70.5 #97	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #313
Shooting
48.3 #307	Effective FG%	49.5 #265
31.4 #308	3-point %	32.0 #283
35.6 #256	3-point attempt rate	47.8 #26
32.8 #239	Free throw rate	30.0 #309
Possessions
18.1 #274	Turnover rate	16.3 #156
29.2 #231	Offensive rebound rate	27.9 #270
11.7 #304	Assists per game	12.2 #272
Defense
75.7 #210	Points allowed	78.9 #293
1.08 #170	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #357
51.0 #156	Opponent effective FG%	57.5 #361
35.6 #289	Opponent 3-point %	36.6 #335
16.5 #185	Turnovers forced	14.8 #306
68.6 #224	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #227
6.1 #220	Steals per game	5.2 #318
4.7 #24	Blocks per game	2.5 #304

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

The Citadel

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs ETSU76–83
Wvs Chattanooga88–85
W@ Wofford93–90
L@ Furman51–72
Lvs Chattanooga72–93

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina Upstate Spartans at The Citadel Bulldogs

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SC Upstate

The Citadel

The Citadel has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC Upstate

The Citadel