West Florida Argonauts at Northwestern State Demons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 25, 12:00 AM ETPrather Coliseum · at N'Western St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Florida and N'Western St
UWF	This season	NWST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NWST 74–71 · win probability NWST 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NWST has more of the edges

UWF 0, NWST 2 · Before any stats

NWSTSmall

Home court

NWST at home. This season: NWST 0-0 at home, UWF 0-0 away

NWSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UWF 0%, NWST 28%. Transfers in: UWF 2, NWST 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NWST -3.1	—
Total	—	145.3	—
Projected score	—	UWF 71.1 · NWST 74.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NWST -1.7	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	UWF 33.1 · NWST 34.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UWF	—	—	—	—
NWST WWLLL	17-13	57%	8-4	—

Venue/role: UWF away; NWST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UWF	—	—	—
NWST UUUUU	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NWST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs FSU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ USF	No recent meeting
Dec 13	vs NAVY	No recent meeting

N'Western St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ LAM	W70–68WO
Dec 8	@ GCU	L72–85WO
Dec 14	@ UTM	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Florida has no 2025-26 games yet.

N'Western St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U O O O O O O O U U U O O U O O U U U U U O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TA&M	L 68-98	+21.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 166
Nov 6	@UNT	L 53-80	+11.5	L −15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 11	@UNA	L 83-87	+6.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 18	@SF	L 64-84	+16.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 148
Nov 21	@GCU	L 72-85	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 29	vsSOU	L 73-75	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 5	@MCN	L 54-92	+19.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 146
Dec 7	@SELA	W 76-68	+7.5	W +15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@CAL	L 70-79	+19.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsLAM	L 61-76	+3.5	L −11.5	138.5	U 137
Dec 31	vsSFA	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 138
Jan 3	vsNOLA	W 74-68	+1.5	W +7.5	149.5	U 142
Jan 5	@NICH	L 72-74	+8.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	vsAMCC	W 79-78	+5.5	W +6.5	138.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsRGV	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	@UIW	L 74-76	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 19	@HCU	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 27	@SFA	L 67-69	+14.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 31	@NOLA	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 139
Feb 2	vsNICH	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 4	vsETAM	L 68-74	-3.5	L −9.5	143.5	U 142
Feb 7	@ETAM	L 48-52	+1.5	L −2.5	140.5	U 100
Feb 9	@LAM	W 70-68	+6.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsSELA	W 69-66	-1.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	vsMCN	L 64-75	+14.5	W +3.5	138.5	O 139
Feb 21	vsHCU	W 71-53	-2.5	W +15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	vsUIW	W 54-49	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 103
Feb 28	@AMCC	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	134.5	U 130
Mar 2	@RGV	L 62-74	+9.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 8	vsNICH	L 47-61	+1.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

−8.5

UNT

L 53-80

−15.5

UNA

L 83-87

+2.5

L 64-84

−3.5

GCU

L 72-85

+5.5

SOU

L 73-75

+1.5

MCN

L 54-92

−18.5

SELA

W 76-68

+15.5

CAL

L 70-79

+10.5

LAM

L 61-76

−11.5

SFA

L 64-74

−1.5

NOLA

W 74-68

+7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+6.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+6.5

RGV

W 64-63

+3.5

UIW

L 74-76

+6.5

HCU

L 80-82

+0.5

SFA

L 67-69

+12.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−6.5

NICH

L 58-61

−1.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−9.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−2.5

LAM

W 70-68

+8.5

SELA

W 69-66

+1.5

MCN

L 64-75

+3.5

HCU

W 71-53

+15.5

UIW

W 54-49

+3.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−6.5

RGV

L 62-74

−2.5

NICH

L 47-61

−12.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TA&M

L 68-98

+12.5

UNT

L 53-80

−4.5

UNA

L 83-87

+27.5

L 64-84

+4.5

GCU

L 72-85

+9.5

SOU

L 73-75

+3.5

MCN

L 54-92

+6.5

SELA

W 76-68

+10.5

CAL

L 70-79

+3.5

LAM

L 61-76

−1.5

SFA

L 64-74

−0.5

NOLA

W 74-68

−7.5

NICH

L 72-74

+1.5

AMCC

W 79-78

+18.5

RGV

W 64-63

−16.5

UIW

L 74-76

+8.5

HCU

L 80-82

+22.5

SFA

L 67-69

−5.5

NOLA

L 64-75

−14.5

NICH

L 58-61

−28.5

ETAM

L 68-74

−1.5

ETAM

L 48-52

−40.5

LAM

W 70-68

+2.5

SELA

W 69-66

+3.5

MCN

L 64-75

+0.5

HCU

W 71-53

−10.5

UIW

W 54-49

−35.5

AMCC

L 59-71

−4.5

RGV

L 62-74

−3.5

NICH

L 47-61

−30.5

over 15under 15avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: West Florida 1, N'Western St 1, even 3

West FloridaBetterN'Western St

G E. Wali TR5.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 9

NWSTBig

G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57

G C. Monroe NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1

F D. Dickerson TR5.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 63

UWFBig

F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

F I. Alexander NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22

F T. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34

West FloridaBetterN'Western St

UWF offense263rd of 366 · -8.1

Even

NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2

UWF defense341st of 366 · -9.1

Even

NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5

Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.2 · 3 players

UWFBig

Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestUWF betterNWST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Florida

Guards

E. Wali26 min · TRC. MonroeNewJ. KingNewA. GodleyNewC. ValarezoNewR. FariasNew

Forwards

D. Dickerson14 min · TRI. AlexanderNewT. HallNewS. RutatikaNewJ. SamuelNewT. ThompsonNew

N'Western St

Guards

I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew

Forwards

D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26, 0 games in · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UWF—

NWST66.1 #346

Points per possession

UWF—

NWST1.01 #315

Pace (possessions)

UWF—

NWST65.4 #334

Shooting

Effective FG%

UWF—

NWST48.6 #301

3-point %

UWF—

NWST33.2 #218

3-point attempt rate

UWF—

NWST33.9 #298

Free throw rate

UWF—

NWST40.1 #58

Possessions

Turnover rate

UWF—

NWST18.3 #286

Offensive rebound rate

UWF—

NWST26.1 #321

Assists per game

UWF—

NWST11.3 #322

Defense

Points allowed

UWF—

NWST72.9 #129

Points allowed per possession

UWF—

NWST1.12 #262

Opponent effective FG%

UWF—

NWST53.0 #270

Opponent 3-point %

UWF—

NWST35.5 #278

Turnovers forced

UWF—

NWST16.9 #160

Defensive rebound rate

UWF—

NWST67.4 #286

Steals per game

UWF—

NWST6.2 #215

Blocks per game

UWF—

NWST2.3 #321

UWF		NWST
Scoring
—	Points per game	66.1 #346
—	Points per possession	1.01 #315
—	Pace (possessions)	65.4 #334
Shooting
—	Effective FG%	48.6 #301
—	3-point %	33.2 #218
—	3-point attempt rate	33.9 #298
—	Free throw rate	40.1 #58
Possessions
—	Turnover rate	18.3 #286
—	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #321
—	Assists per game	11.3 #322
Defense
—	Points allowed	72.9 #129
—	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #262
—	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #270
—	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #278
—	Turnovers forced	16.9 #160
—	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #286
—	Steals per game	6.2 #215
—	Blocks per game	2.3 #321

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Florida

0-0 in 2025-26 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

No games yet

A week or more of rest.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nicholls47–61
L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

West Florida Argonauts at Northwestern State Demons

What could decide it: NWST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N'Western St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Florida

N'Western St