1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. SMU vs USU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

SMU Mustangs vs Utah State Aggies

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#55SMUSMU
vs
#58USUUtah State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SMUThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 78–77 · win probability USU 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SMU 2, USU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SMU 15.8%, USU 15.1%. Forced: SMU 16.8%, USU 20.2%
SMUSmall
Three-pointers
SMU hits 37.1% and allows 34.1%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 35.9% and 40.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SMU plays 71.1 a game (68th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
SMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SMU 35.4%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: SMU 68.4%, USU 67.2%
USUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SMU 55.6 and allows 51.6; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SMU 30.4, USU 38.8. Allowed: SMU 32.1, USU 39.2
Even
USU offense vs SMU defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 69th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SMU has played the 70th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
SMU offense vs USU defense
Offense 45th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SMU 20%, USU 26%. Transfers in: SMU 7, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USU -0.8—
Total—155.4—
Projected score—SMU 77.3 · USU 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -0.3—
1H total72.6—
1H projected scoreSMU 36.2 · USU 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

SMU has the better starters

Position by position: SMU 3, Utah State 1, even 1
SMUBetterUtah State
G R. Brumbaugh TR19.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 95
SMUSmall
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
G D. Terrell TR13.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.9 ast Score 89
Even
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
G O. Sellers TR10.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 78
SMUSmall
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
G J. Patrick TR7.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 59
SMUSmall
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
F J. Munch TR7.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1 ast Score 69
USUSmall
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
SMUBetterUtah State
SMU offense45th of 366 · +4.2
Even
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
SMU defense69th of 366 · +0.8
Even
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt+8.2 · 4 players
SMUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 1 player
USUSmall
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
USUBig
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestSMU betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SMU
Guards
R. Brumbaugh36 min · TRD. Terrell33 min · TRO. Sellers29 min · TRJ. Patrick20 min · TRN. Kalischer-Stork1 minG. NormandNew
Forwards
J. Munch21 min · TRJ. Toombs20 minJ. Stewart16 min · TRN. Codie16 min · TRJ. O'Neal15 minN. Walls3 min
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SMUUSU
Scoring
84.1 #19Points per game81.3 #43
1.19 #26Points per possession1.19 #24
71.1 #68Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
55.6 #27Effective FG%56.3 #18
37.1 #273-point %34.3 #155
35.9 #2523-point attempt rate40.8 #152
30.4 #301Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
15.8 #119Turnover rate15.1 #72
35.4 #37Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
16.9 #27Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
77.9 #265Points allowed71.2 #78
1.09 #199Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
51.6 #189Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
34.1 #188Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
16.8 #171Turnovers forced20.2 #18
68.4 #237Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
7.0 #129Steals per game8.5 #17
3.6 #132Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SMU

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami OH79–89
  • Lvs Louisville58–62
  • Wvs Syracuse86–69
  • L@ Florida St78–91
  • Lvs Miami69–77

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.