1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. BELL @ NKU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Bellarmine Knights at Northern Kentucky Norse

Truist Arena · at N Kentucky
#295BELLBellarmine
@
#230NKUN Kentucky
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BELLThis seasonNKU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NKU 81–73 · win probability NKU 75%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NKU has more of the edges

BELL 2, NKU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NKUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BELL 22.4%, NKU 32.2%. Defensive: BELL 65.8%, NKU 68.4%
NKUBig
NKU offense vs BELL defense
Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 345th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BELL plays 66.7 a game (288th fastest), NKU 71.5 (55th). Faster games mean more points
NKUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BELL 15.4%, NKU 16.3%. Forced: BELL 15.1%, NKU 18.6%
BELLSmall
Three-pointers
BELL hits 38.1% and allows 40.4%; NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 41.2% and 44.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
BELL has played the 229th-hardest schedule, NKU the 289th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BELLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BELL 56%, NKU 26%. Transfers in: BELL 1, NKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NKUSmall
Home court
NKU at home. This season: NKU 0-0 at home, BELL 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BELL 35.0, NKU 35.9. Allowed: BELL 34.3, NKU 37.2
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: BELL 59.4 and allows 59.4; NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2
Even
BELL offense vs NKU defense
Offense 239th of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NKU -7.5—
Total—154.2—
Projected score—BELL 73.3 · NKU 80.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNKU -4.4—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreBELL 33.9 · NKU 38.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

N Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: Bellarmine 1, N Kentucky 2, even 2
BellarmineBetterN Kentucky
G K. Goodin11.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 31
BELLSmall
G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3
G T. Doyle10 pts · 2.9 reb · 4 ast Score 35
Even
G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38
F S. Donald6.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
NKUBig
F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68
F J. Wassler3.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.3 ast Score 4
NKUBig
F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
F T. Tornatta TR3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
Even
F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
BellarmineBetterN Kentucky
BELL offense239th of 366 · -7.3
Even
NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5
BELL defense345th of 366 · -9.2
NKUBig
NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-3.8 · 2 players
BELLSmall
Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-4.9 · 3 players
NKUBig
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Even
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestBELL betterNKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Bellarmine
Guards
K. Goodin33 minT. Doyle28 minG. Whitaker7 minG. Neal3 minT. Clark2 minJ. GizziNew
Forwards
S. Donald27 minJ. Wassler12 minT. Tornatta9 min · TRA. McAfeeNewB. KlopfensteinNewE. HarrellNew
N Kentucky
Guards
E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew
Forwards
N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BELLNKU
Scoring
78.9 #80Points per game80.9 #47
1.18 #34Points per possession1.13 #81
66.7 #288Pace (possessions)71.5 #55
Shooting
59.4 #3Effective FG%53.2 #93
38.1 #173-point %33.6 #193
41.2 #1453-point attempt rate44.9 #71
35.0 #178Free throw rate35.9 #158
Possessions
15.4 #100Turnover rate16.3 #158
22.4 #354Offensive rebound rate32.2 #117
14.8 #98Assists per game15.5 #65
Defense
83.3 #350Points allowed78.7 #284
1.25 #365Points allowed per possession1.10 #225
59.4 #365Opponent effective FG%54.2 #305
40.4 #364Opponent 3-point %36.6 #333
15.1 #277Turnovers forced18.6 #66
65.8 #320Defensive rebound rate68.4 #236
5.8 #255Steals per game8.3 #25
1.7 #356Blocks per game3.5 #134
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bellarmine

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs C Arkansas73–86
  • Wvs Jacksonville82–79
  • Wvs Austin Peay111–97
  • L@ North Alabama68–73
  • Lvs E Kentucky92–95

A week or more of rest.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St90–103
  • Wvs Green Bay96–76
  • W@ Oakland85–84
  • Lvs Wright St91–92
  • W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.