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  2. Wed, Nov 25
  3. NORF @ NCSU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 25

Norfolk State Spartans at NC State Wolfpack

Lenovo Center · at NC State
#319NORFNorfolk St
@
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NORFThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 91–61 · win probability NCSU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

NORF 0, NCSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
NORF has played the 343rd-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
NCSUBig
NCSU offense vs NORF defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings
NCSUBig
NORF offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NORF 18.7%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: NORF 18.8%, NCSU 18.2%
NCSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
NCSUSmall
Home court
NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, NORF 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NORF 8%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: NORF 4, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 30.6% and 43.4% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: NORF plays 69.1 a game (172nd fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NORF 32.5%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: NORF 67.7%, NCSU 69.5%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NORF 43.5, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: NORF 45.3, NCSU 36.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -30.1—
Total—152.3—
Projected score—NORF 61.1 · NCSU 91.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -17.8—
1H total71.2—
1H projected scoreNORF 26.7 · NCSU 44.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: Norfolk St 0, NC State 4, even 1
Norfolk StBetterNC State
G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51
NCSUSmall
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12
NCSUBig
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22
NCSUBig
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
NCSUBig
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56
Even
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
Norfolk StBetterNC State
NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1
NCSUBig
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7
NCSUBig
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
NCSUSmall
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNORF betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Norfolk St
Guards
B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew
Forwards
J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew
Centers
J. JordanNew
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NORFNCSU
Scoring
71.6 #257Points per game83.2 #25
1.04 #274Points per possession1.18 #30
69.1 #172Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
49.3 #277Effective FG%55.0 #35
34.2 #1573-point %38.8 #6
30.6 #3473-point attempt rate43.4 #104
43.5 #13Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
18.7 #311Turnover rate13.1 #7
32.5 #108Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
11.3 #326Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
74.7 #181Points allowed76.3 #224
1.08 #160Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
51.7 #196Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
32.0 #61Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
18.8 #58Turnovers forced18.2 #90
67.7 #270Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
6.5 #180Steals per game8.1 #37
2.8 #264Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SC State82–88
  • Lvs Howard76–84
  • L@ Morgan St84–90
  • W@ Coppin St75–69
  • Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.