Norfolk State Spartans at Washington Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 29, 7:30 PM ETAlaska Airlines Arena · at Washington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Norfolk St and Washington
NORF	This season	WASH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WASH 88–60 · win probability WASH 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WASH has more of the edges

NORF 1, WASH 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NORF has played the 343rd-hardest schedule, WASH the 46th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WASHBig

NORF offense vs WASH defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 48th, on the model’s ratings

WASHBig

WASH offense vs NORF defense

Offense 57th of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

NORFBig

Three-pointers

NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%; WASH hits 31.5% and allows 33.6%. Threes are 30.6% and 34.6% of their shots

WASHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NORF 32.5%, WASH 34.6%. Defensive: NORF 67.7%, WASH 71.5%

WASHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7; WASH 51.2 and allows 50.1

WASHSmall

Home court

WASH at home. This season: WASH 0-0 at home, NORF 0-0 away

WASHSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NORF 8%, WASH 34%. Transfers in: NORF 4, WASH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NORF 18.7%, WASH 15.3%. Forced: NORF 18.8%, WASH 14.4%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NORF 43.5, WASH 30.1. Allowed: NORF 45.3, WASH 31.0

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NORF plays 69.1 a game (172nd fastest), WASH 68.8 (196th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	WASH -28.5	—
Total	—	147.7	—
Projected score	—	NORF 59.6 · WASH 88.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WASH -16.8	—
1H total	69.1	—
1H projected score	NORF 26.1 · WASH 43	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	8-7	—
WASH LWLWW	20-13	61%	9-7	—

Venue/role: NORF away; WASH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17
WASH OOOOO	15-18	45%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
WASH	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ SEA	No recent meeting
Dec 4	vs FAMU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ CAM	No recent meeting

Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ USC	W83–79WO
Dec 8	vs SUU	W105–69WO
Dec 13	vs UCLA	L73–77WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Washington

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

20-13

61% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W L W W W L L W W L W W L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1361%

W L L W L W L W W W L W L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

U O U U O O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U U O O U U U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 27	vsNEV	W 83-66	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	O 149
Nov 28	vsCOLO	L 68-81	-2.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 149
Dec 3	vsUCLA	L 80-82	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 6	@USC	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 160
Dec 13	vsSUU	W 105-69	-25.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 174
Dec 19	@SEA	L 66-70	-7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	vsUSD	W 86-56	-18.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 142
Dec 29	vsUTAH	W 74-65	-12.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 139
Jan 4	@IU	L 80-90	+9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 7	@PUR	L 73-81	+16.5	W +8.5	154.5	U 154
Jan 11	vsOSU	W 81-74	-1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 155
Jan 14	vsMICH	L 72-82	+12.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 154
Jan 17	vsMSU	L 63-80	+3.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 143
Jan 21	@NEB	L 66-76	+10.5	W +0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 25	vsORE	W 72-57	-7.5	W +7.5	143.5	U 129
Jan 29	@ILL	L 66-75	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 141
Jan 31	@NU	W 76-62	+1.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsIOWA	L 74-84	+2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 7	@UCLA	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 150
Feb 11	vsPSU	L 60-63	-12.5	L −15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	vsMINN	W 69-57	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 126
Feb 21	@MD	L 60-64	-4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 24	@RUTG	W 79-72	-4.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsWIS	L 73-90	+1.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 4	vsUSC	W 91-72	-5.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 163
Mar 7	@ORE	L 79-85	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 164
Mar 11	vsUSC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 12	vsWIS	L 82-85	+6.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

NEV

W 83-66

+13.5

COLO

L 68-81

−15.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+0.5

USC

W 84-76

+12.5

SUU

W 105-69

+10.5

SEA

L 66-70

−11.5

USD

W 86-56

+11.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−3.5

L 80-90

−0.5

PUR

L 73-81

+8.5

OSU

W 81-74

+5.5

MICH

L 72-82

+2.5

MSU

L 63-80

−13.5

NEB

L 66-76

+0.5

ORE

W 72-57

+7.5

ILL

L 66-75

+3.5

W 76-62

+15.5

IOWA

L 74-84

−7.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+0.5

PSU

L 60-63

−15.5

MINN

W 69-57

+5.5

L 60-64

−8.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+2.5

WIS

L 73-90

−15.5

USC

W 91-72

+13.5

ORE

L 79-85

−7.5

USC

W 83-79

+0.5

WIS

L 82-85

+3.5

covered 20didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

NEV

W 83-66

+3.5

COLO

L 68-81

−2.5

UCLA

L 80-82

+20.5

USC

W 84-76

+5.5

SUU

W 105-69

+20.5

SEA

L 66-70

−15.5

USD

W 86-56

−17.5

UTAH

W 74-65

−18.5

L 80-90

+17.5

PUR

L 73-81

−0.5

OSU

W 81-74

−0.5

MICH

L 72-82

−11.5

MSU

L 63-80

−2.5

NEB

L 66-76

−10.5

ORE

W 72-57

−14.5

ILL

L 66-75

−12.5

W 76-62

−8.5

IOWA

L 74-84

+16.5

UCLA

L 73-77

+5.5

PSU

L 60-63

−30.5

MINN

W 69-57

−12.5

L 60-64

−19.5

RUTG

W 79-72

+11.5

WIS

L 73-90

+9.5

USC

W 91-72

+12.5

ORE

L 79-85

+18.5

USC

W 83-79

+7.5

WIS

L 82-85

+9.5

over 15under 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Washington has the better starters

Position by position: Norfolk St 0, Washington 4, even 1

Norfolk StBetterWashington

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

WASHSmall

G R. Beasley TR13.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 84

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

WASHBig

G W. Yates12.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 68

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

WASHBig

G L. Watts TR11.8 pts · 6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 87

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

WASHBig

G P. Friedrichsen TR10.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

Even

G T. Comer TR11 pts · 1.8 reb · 3.6 ast Score 68

Norfolk StBetterWashington

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

WASHBig

WASH defense48th of 366 · +2.2

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

WASHBig

WASH offense57th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

WASHBig

Backcourt+5.8 · 5 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

NORFSmall

Bench-1.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNORF betterWASH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

Washington

Guards

R. Beasley34 min · TRW. Yates31 minL. Watts27 min · TRP. Friedrichsen26 min · TRT. Comer25 min · TRH. Zrno19 min · TR

Forwards

N. Dzepina11 minJ. Rencher9 minM. TraoreNewW. BragaNew

Centers

L. Sommerville15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NORF71.6 #257

WASH77.1 #114

Points per possession

NORF1.04 #274

WASH1.12 #103

Pace (possessions)

NORF69.1 #172

WASH68.8 #196

Shooting

Effective FG%

NORF49.3 #277

WASH51.2 #187

3-point %

NORF34.2 #157

WASH31.5 #307

3-point attempt rate

NORF30.6 #347

WASH34.6 #284

Free throw rate

NORF43.5 #13

WASH30.1 #308

Possessions

Turnover rate

NORF18.7 #311

WASH15.3 #81

Offensive rebound rate

NORF32.5 #108

WASH34.6 #56

Assists per game

NORF11.3 #326

WASH13.9 #152

Defense

Points allowed

NORF74.7 #181

WASH73.6 #146

Points allowed per possession

NORF1.08 #160

WASH1.07 #140

Opponent effective FG%

NORF51.7 #196

WASH50.1 #108

Opponent 3-point %

NORF32.0 #61

WASH33.6 #163

Turnovers forced

NORF18.8 #58

WASH14.4 #325

Defensive rebound rate

NORF67.7 #270

WASH71.5 #84

Steals per game

NORF6.5 #180

WASH5.7 #271

Blocks per game

NORF2.8 #264

WASH4.2 #58

NORF		WASH
Scoring
71.6 #257	Points per game	77.1 #114
1.04 #274	Points per possession	1.12 #103
69.1 #172	Pace (possessions)	68.8 #196
Shooting
49.3 #277	Effective FG%	51.2 #187
34.2 #157	3-point %	31.5 #307
30.6 #347	3-point attempt rate	34.6 #284
43.5 #13	Free throw rate	30.1 #308
Possessions
18.7 #311	Turnover rate	15.3 #81
32.5 #108	Offensive rebound rate	34.6 #56
11.3 #326	Assists per game	13.9 #152
Defense
74.7 #181	Points allowed	73.6 #146
1.08 #160	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #140
51.7 #196	Opponent effective FG%	50.1 #108
32.0 #61	Opponent 3-point %	33.6 #163
18.8 #58	Turnovers forced	14.4 #325
67.7 #270	Defensive rebound rate	71.5 #84
6.5 #180	Steals per game	5.7 #271
2.8 #264	Blocks per game	4.2 #58

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

Washington

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wisconsin82–85
Wvs USC83–79
L@ Oregon79–85
Wvs USC91–72
Lvs Wisconsin73–90

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk State Spartans at Washington Huskies

What could decide it: WASH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Norfolk St

Washington

Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Norfolk St

Washington