1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. UIW @ GCU
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Grand Canyon Lopes

Global Credit Union Arena · at Grand Canyon
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#80GCUGrand Canyon
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonGCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GCU 84–63 · win probability GCU 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GCU has more of the edges

UIW 0, GCU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GCUBig
UIW offense vs GCU defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings
GCUBig
GCU offense vs UIW defense
Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, GCU the 107th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4
GCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, GCU 31.3%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, GCU 74.7%
GCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, GCU 39.5. Allowed: UIW 41.6, GCU 39.0
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), GCU 69.3 (166th). Faster games mean more points
GCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, GCU 51%. Transfers in: UIW 5, GCU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
GCUSmall
Home court
GCU at home. This season: GCU 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 39.1% and 38.9% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, GCU 17.6%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, GCU 17.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GCU -20.8—
Total—147.5—
Projected score—UIW 63.3 · GCU 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGCU -12.2—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreUIW 28.4 · GCU 40.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Grand Canyon has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, Grand Canyon 2, even 3
Incarnate WordBetterGrand Canyon
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
Even
G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
GCUBig
G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
GCUBig
G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
Incarnate WordBetterGrand Canyon
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
GCUBig
GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
GCUBig
GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
GCUBig
Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
GCUBig
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
GCUSmall
Bench+2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
Grand Canyon
Guards
J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR
Forwards
B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew
Centers
E. Demirel23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWGCU
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game75.6 #153
1.07 #206Points per possession1.09 #158
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)69.3 #166
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%51.7 #162
36.1 #543-point %31.8 #286
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate38.9 #192
34.0 #210Free throw rate39.5 #67
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate17.6 #245
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate31.3 #150
10.8 #342Assists per game12.8 #230
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed68.7 #42
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession0.99 #22
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%47.4 #28
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %31.9 #60
15.8 #233Turnovers forced17.4 #129
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate74.7 #12
5.1 #329Steals per game6.6 #165
2.4 #310Blocks per game3.6 #123
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada80–84
  • Wvs Fresno St85–60
  • W@ Air Force86–60
  • L@ Utah State69–74
  • Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.