1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. WEB @ USU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Weber State Wildcats at Utah State Aggies

Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · at Utah State
#313WEBWeber St
@
#58USUUtah State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WEBThis seasonUSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USU 90–64 · win probability USU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USU has more of the edges

WEB 1, USU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USUBig
USU offense vs WEB defense
Offense 53rd of 366 against a defense 336th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WEB has played the 316th-hardest schedule, USU the 83rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
USUBig
WEB offense vs USU defense
Offense 280th of 366 against a defense 56th, on the model’s ratings
USUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WEB 51.7 and allows 54.5; USU 56.3 and allows 49.7
USUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WEB 15.7%, USU 15.1%. Forced: WEB 16.3%, USU 20.2%
WEBSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WEB 31.8%, USU 32.7%. Defensive: WEB 72.3%, USU 67.2%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WEB plays 70.7 a game (85th fastest), USU 68.5 (207th). Faster games mean more points
USUSmall
Home court
USU at home. This season: USU 0-0 at home, WEB 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WEB 39.1, USU 38.8. Allowed: WEB 36.4, USU 39.2
Even
Three-pointers
WEB hits 34.5% and allows 33.5%; USU hits 34.3% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 32.8% and 40.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WEB 9%, USU 26%. Transfers in: WEB 2, USU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USU -25.9—
Total—153.6—
Projected score—WEB 63.8 · USU 89.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSU -15.3—
1H total71.8—
1H projected scoreWEB 28.2 · USU 43.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Utah State has the better starters

Position by position: Weber St 0, Utah State 1, even 4
Weber StBetterUtah State
G A. Grayson3.3 pts · 1.2 reb · 1 ast Score 6
USUBig
G A. Bates TR12.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 5.8 ast Score 62
F B. Felder TR2.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Falslev16.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 98
F D. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G D. Hall TR5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 49
C A. Ekwe TR2.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Callaghan TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 33
C D. Cutler1.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F W. Hornseth TR11.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
Weber StBetterUtah State
WEB offense280th of 366 · -8.6
USUBig
USU defense56th of 366 · +1.4
WEB defense336th of 366 · -8.9
USUBig
USU offense53rd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt-1.7 · 1 player
USUBig
Backcourt+2.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players
USUBig
Frontcourt+2.6 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+3.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWEB betterUSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Weber St
Guards
A. Grayson12 minA. JacksonNewA. PowellNewM. AbittanNewS. Marius JonesNewH. HansenNew
Forwards
B. Felder6 min · TRD. ThompsonNewD. WarlickNewC. BurgessNew
Centers
A. Ekwe10 min · TRD. Cutler6 min
Utah State
Guards
A. Bates34 min · TRM. Falslev33 minD. Hall28 min · TRS. Callaghan28 min · TRB. BoeNewA. ReiserNew
Forwards
W. Hornseth27 min · TRC. Turnbull21 min · TRK. Templin19 minC. Mulholland17 min · TRK. TosiNew
Centers
S. FeltsNewB. RobertsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WEBUSU
Scoring
78.8 #82Points per game81.3 #43
1.11 #112Points per possession1.19 #24
70.7 #85Pace (possessions)68.5 #207
Shooting
51.7 #163Effective FG%56.3 #18
34.5 #1433-point %34.3 #155
32.8 #3203-point attempt rate40.8 #152
39.1 #76Free throw rate38.8 #83
Possessions
15.7 #115Turnover rate15.1 #72
31.8 #132Offensive rebound rate32.7 #97
12.6 #241Assists per game17.1 #21
Defense
79.1 #300Points allowed71.2 #78
1.12 #269Points allowed per possession1.04 #72
54.5 #316Opponent effective FG%49.7 #87
33.5 #160Opponent 3-point %34.5 #222
16.3 #204Turnovers forced20.2 #18
72.3 #56Defensive rebound rate67.2 #290
6.9 #133Steals per game8.5 #17
1.5 #360Blocks per game2.9 #252
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Weber St

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs E Washington79–84
  • L@ Portland St60–84
  • W@ Idaho St83–73
  • Wvs Montana92–72
  • Wvs Montana St82–79

A week or more of rest.

Utah State

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 18-5 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona66–78
  • Wvs Villanova86–76
  • Wvs San Diego St73–62
  • Wvs Nevada79–66
  • Wvs UNLV80–60

A week or more of rest.