Tarleton State Texans at Weber State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETDee Events Center · at Weber St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tarleton St and Weber St
TAR	This season	WEB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TAR 77–74 · win probability TAR 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WEB has more of the edges

TAR 2, WEB 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WEBBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TAR 31.5%, WEB 31.8%. Defensive: TAR 64.9%, WEB 72.3%

TARBig

TAR offense vs WEB defense

Offense 200th of 366 against a defense 336th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TAR has played the 212th-hardest schedule, WEB the 316th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WEBSmall

Three-pointers

TAR hits 32.5% and allows 34.9%; WEB hits 34.5% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 24.2% and 32.8% of their shots

TARSmall

WEB offense vs TAR defense

Offense 280th of 366 against a defense 186th, on the model’s ratings

WEBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TAR 48.3 and allows 53.6; WEB 51.7 and allows 54.5

WEBSmall

Home court

WEB at home. This season: WEB 0-0 at home, TAR 0-0 away

WEBSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TAR 41.9, WEB 39.1. Allowed: TAR 47.7, WEB 36.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TAR 23%, WEB 9%. Transfers in: TAR 7, WEB 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TAR 19.9%, WEB 15.7%. Forced: TAR 23.5%, WEB 16.3%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TAR plays 71.2 a game (64th fastest), WEB 70.7 (85th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TAR -2.8	—
Total	—	150.3	—
Projected score	—	TAR 76.5 · WEB 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TAR -1.8	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	TAR 36 · WEB 34.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TAR LWLLL	14-14	50%	9-6	—
WEB WWWLL	16-14	53%	8-6	—

Venue/role: TAR away; WEB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TAR OOOUO	15-13	54%	10-18
WEB OOOUO	16-14	53%	14-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TAR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WEB	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tarleton St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ TXSO	W82–71WO
Dec 5	@ PITT	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs MOST	No recent meeting

Weber St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs CSUN	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ CSUF	No recent meeting
Dec 3	@ UTU	L80–82LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TAR 1–0 WEBTAR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TAR 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2022-23	WEB 65 @ TAR 75	TAR -7.5	TAR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tarleton St

28 games played

Straight up

10-18

36% wins

Against the spread

14-14

50% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-13

54% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1836%

L L W W L W L W W W L W L L L L L L L W L W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1450%

W L W W W W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1354%

O O O U O O U O U U O O O O U U U U U U U U O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMU	L 76-96	+21.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 5	@LSU	L 60-96	+15.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsAMCC	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsMRMK	W 76-62	-4.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 14	@BAY	L 81-94	+23.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 20	@RICE	W 90-74	+4.5	W +20.5	146.5	O 164
Dec 1	@CIN	L 58-76	+24.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 16	@MVSU	W 88-64	-17.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	vsFAMU	W 78-54	-14.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 132
Dec 29	@UTA	W 69-63	+2.5	W +8.5	136.5	U 132
Jan 1	vsUVU	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 176
Jan 3	vsCBU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsACU	L 80-84	-4.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 164
Jan 15	@SUU	L 105-106	-3.5	L −4.5	150.5	O 211
Jan 17	@UTU	L 71-75	+3.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 146
Jan 21	@UTA	L 64-71	+3.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 29	vsUVU	L 55-83	+6.5	L −21.5	154.5	U 138
Jan 31	vsUTU	L 59-65	-1.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 5	@CBU	L 55-56	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	@SUU	W 62-59	-1.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 14	@ACU	L 59-73	+3.5	L −10.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 16	vsACU	W 65-62	+1.5	W +4.5	134.5	U 127
Feb 19	vsSUU	W 78-74	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 21	vsUTU	L 72-80	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 152
Feb 26	@UVU	L 72-79	+17.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 28	@CBU	L 67-82	+8.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsUTA	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 11	vsACU	L 78-84	+1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+1.5

LSU

L 60-96

−20.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+4.5

MRMK

W 76-62

+9.5

BAY

L 81-94

+10.5

RICE

W 90-74

+20.5

CIN

L 58-76

+6.5

MVSU

W 88-64

+6.5

FAMU

W 78-54

+9.5

UTA

W 69-63

+8.5

UVU

L 85-91

−0.5

CBU

W 81-76

+3.5

ACU

L 80-84

−8.5

SUU

L 105-106

−4.5

UTU

L 71-75

−0.5

UTA

L 64-71

−3.5

UVU

L 55-83

−21.5

UTU

L 59-65

−7.5

CBU

L 55-56

+9.5

SUU

W 62-59

+1.5

ACU

L 59-73

−10.5

ACU

W 65-62

+4.5

SUU

W 78-74

−0.5

UTU

L 72-80

−9.5

UVU

L 72-79

+10.5

CBU

L 67-82

−6.5

UTA

L 60-65

−6.5

ACU

L 78-84

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 14avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+27.5

LSU

L 60-96

+7.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+19.5

MRMK

W 76-62

−4.5

BAY

L 81-94

+25.5

RICE

W 90-74

+17.5

CIN

L 58-76

−8.5

MVSU

W 88-64

+9.5

FAMU

W 78-54

−13.5

UTA

W 69-63

−4.5

UVU

L 85-91

+31.5

CBU

W 81-76

+9.5

ACU

L 80-84

+23.5

SUU

L 105-106

+60.5

UTU

L 71-75

−4.5

UTA

L 64-71

−7.5

UVU

L 55-83

−16.5

UTU

L 59-65

−25.5

CBU

L 55-56

−27.5

SUU

W 62-59

−28.5

ACU

L 59-73

−2.5

ACU

W 65-62

−7.5

SUU

W 78-74

+7.5

UTU

L 72-80

+11.5

UVU

L 72-79

+9.5

CBU

L 67-82

+9.5

UTA

L 60-65

−11.5

ACU

L 78-84

+27.5

over 15under 13avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Weber St

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L L L W L W W L W L L L W W W W L L L W L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W W W L W W L L L L L W W W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

O U U O U U O U U O O O O U U O U U O O O U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UTAH	L 89-92	+15.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 12	@USU	L 73-83	+22.5	W +12.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 15	@UCI	L 70-79	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsCAM	W 91-85	-1.5	W +4.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 22	vsUTA	L 73-74	-2.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 147
Nov 29	vsKC	W 82-61	-10.5	W +10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsORU	W 92-66	-7.5	W +18.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 7	@STMN	L 65-88	+7.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 10	@KC	W 64-60	-7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 17	@UVU	L 74-90	+15.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsUTU	L 80-82	-5.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 1	vsPRST	L 90-95	+1.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 185
Jan 3	vsSAC	W 95-82	-6.5	W +6.5	168.5	O 177
Jan 8	@NAU	W 78-65	-2.5	W +10.5	149.5	U 143
Jan 10	@UNCO	W 76-71	+6.5	W +11.5	162.5	U 147
Jan 15	vsEWU	W 91-80	-3.5	W +7.5	158.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsIDHO	L 67-75	+1.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 142
Jan 22	@MONT	L 65-81	+4.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 146
Jan 24	@MTST	L 88-91	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsIDST	W 81-79	-2.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 160
Feb 2	@SAC	L 90-104	+1.5	L −12.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 5	vsUNCO	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	162.5	U 162
Feb 7	vsNAU	W 72-53	-7.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 125
Feb 12	@IDHO	W 83-72	+5.5	W +16.5	153.5	O 155
Feb 14	@EWU	L 66-84	+3.5	L −14.5	154.5	U 150
Feb 19	vsMTST	W 82-79	-1.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsMONT	W 92-72	-2.5	W +17.5	152.5	O 164
Feb 28	@IDST	W 83-73	+2.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 2	@PRST	L 60-84	+4.5	L −19.5	144.5	U 144
Mar 9	vsEWU	L 79-84	+3.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+12.5

USU

L 73-83

+12.5

UCI

L 70-79

+2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+4.5

UTA

L 73-74

−3.5

W 82-61

+10.5

ORU

W 92-66

+18.5

STMN

L 65-88

−15.5

W 64-60

−3.5

UVU

L 74-90

−0.5

UTU

L 80-82

−7.5

PRST

L 90-95

−3.5

SAC

W 95-82

+6.5

NAU

W 78-65

+10.5

UNCO

W 76-71

+11.5

EWU

W 91-80

+7.5

IDHO

L 67-75

−6.5

MONT

L 65-81

−11.5

MTST

L 88-91

+3.5

IDST

W 81-79

−0.5

SAC

L 90-104

−12.5

UNCO

L 74-88

−12.5

NAU

W 72-53

+11.5

IDHO

W 83-72

+16.5

EWU

L 66-84

−14.5

MTST

W 82-79

+1.5

MONT

W 92-72

+17.5

IDST

W 83-73

+12.5

PRST

L 60-84

−19.5

EWU

L 79-84

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+32.5

USU

L 73-83

−0.5

UCI

L 70-79

−2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+16.5

UTA

L 73-74

−2.5

W 82-61

−12.5

ORU

W 92-66

+0.5

STMN

L 65-88

−1.5

W 64-60

−26.5

UVU

L 74-90

+15.5

UTU

L 80-82

+9.5

PRST

L 90-95

+36.5

SAC

W 95-82

+8.5

NAU

W 78-65

−6.5

UNCO

W 76-71

−15.5

EWU

W 91-80

+12.5

IDHO

L 67-75

−16.5

MONT

L 65-81

−11.5

MTST

L 88-91

+31.5

IDST

W 81-79

+8.5

SAC

L 90-104

+31.5

UNCO

L 74-88

−0.5

NAU

W 72-53

−25.5

IDHO

W 83-72

+1.5

EWU

L 66-84

−4.5

MTST

W 82-79

+12.5

MONT

W 92-72

+11.5

IDST

W 83-73

+3.5

PRST

L 60-84

−0.5

EWU

L 79-84

+8.5

over 16under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tarleton St has the better starters

Position by position: Tarleton St 1, Weber St 0, even 4

Tarleton StBetterWeber St

G C. Blackwell TR10.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 52

TARBig

G A. Grayson3.3 pts · 1.2 reb · 1 ast Score 6

G F. Emmou TR7.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 36

No call

F B. Felder TR2.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G L. Kelly5.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 41

No call

F D. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

G T. Cope TR8.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 47

No call

C A. Ekwe TR2.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F I. Harrell TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23

No call

C D. Cutler1.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Tarleton StBetterWeber St

TAR offense200th of 366 · -6.3

TARBig

WEB defense336th of 366 · -8.9

TAR defense186th of 366 · -4.3

TARSmall

WEB offense280th of 366 · -8.6

Backcourt-3.3 · 4 players

WEBSmall

Backcourt-1.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestTAR betterWEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tarleton St

Guards

C. Blackwell31 min · TRF. Emmou23 min · TRL. Kelly21 minT. Cope21 min · TRK. Douglas16 minJ. Martinez2 min

Forwards

I. Harrell26 min · TRJ. Daniel19 min · TRJ. Hayes13 min · TRJ. Mani12 min · TRM. Vrabel7 minE. CarterNew

Weber St

Guards

A. Grayson12 minA. JacksonNewA. PowellNewM. AbittanNewS. Marius JonesNewH. HansenNew

Forwards

B. Felder6 min · TRD. ThompsonNewD. WarlickNewC. BurgessNew

Centers

A. Ekwe10 min · TRD. Cutler6 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TAR72.5 #231

WEB78.8 #82

Points per possession

TAR1.01 #309

WEB1.11 #112

Pace (possessions)

TAR71.2 #64

WEB70.7 #85

Shooting

Effective FG%

TAR48.3 #306

WEB51.7 #163

3-point %

TAR32.5 #256

WEB34.5 #143

3-point attempt rate

TAR24.2 #365

WEB32.8 #320

Free throw rate

TAR41.9 #33

WEB39.1 #76

Possessions

Turnover rate

TAR19.9 #348

WEB15.7 #115

Offensive rebound rate

TAR31.5 #141

WEB31.8 #132

Assists per game

TAR10.5 #349

WEB12.6 #241

Defense

Points allowed

TAR75.8 #211

WEB79.1 #300

Points allowed per possession

TAR1.07 #130

WEB1.12 #269

Opponent effective FG%

TAR53.6 #285

WEB54.5 #316

Opponent 3-point %

TAR34.9 #244

WEB33.5 #160

Turnovers forced

TAR23.5 #2

WEB16.3 #204

Defensive rebound rate

TAR64.9 #340

WEB72.3 #56

Steals per game

TAR9.7 #3

WEB6.9 #133

Blocks per game

TAR3.1 #206

WEB1.5 #360

TAR		WEB
Scoring
72.5 #231	Points per game	78.8 #82
1.01 #309	Points per possession	1.11 #112
71.2 #64	Pace (possessions)	70.7 #85
Shooting
48.3 #306	Effective FG%	51.7 #163
32.5 #256	3-point %	34.5 #143
24.2 #365	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #320
41.9 #33	Free throw rate	39.1 #76
Possessions
19.9 #348	Turnover rate	15.7 #115
31.5 #141	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #132
10.5 #349	Assists per game	12.6 #241
Defense
75.8 #211	Points allowed	79.1 #300
1.07 #130	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #269
53.6 #285	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #316
34.9 #244	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #160
23.5 #2	Turnovers forced	16.3 #204
64.9 #340	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #56
9.7 #3	Steals per game	6.9 #133
3.1 #206	Blocks per game	1.5 #360

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tarleton St

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Abilene Chrstn78–84
Lvs UT Arlington60–65
L@ CA Baptist67–82
L@ Utah Valley72–79
Lvs Utah Tech72–80

A week or more of rest.

Weber St

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs E Washington79–84
L@ Portland St60–84
W@ Idaho St83–73
Wvs Montana92–72
Wvs Montana St82–79

A week or more of rest.

Tarleton State Texans at Weber State Wildcats

What could decide it: WEB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tarleton St

Weber St

Tarleton St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tarleton St

Weber St