1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. TAR @ TXSO
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Tarleton State Texans at Texas Southern Tigers

H&PE Arena · at Texas Southern
#185TARTarleton St
@
#322TXSOTexas Southern
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TARThis seasonTXSO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TAR 77–71 · win probability TAR 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TAR has more of the edges

TAR 3, TXSO 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TARBig
TXSO offense vs TAR defense
Offense 311th of 366 against a defense 186th, on the model’s ratings
TARBig
TAR offense vs TXSO defense
Offense 200th of 366 against a defense 323rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
TAR has played the 212th-hardest schedule, TXSO the 329th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TARSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TAR 19.9%, TXSO 18.5%. Forced: TAR 23.5%, TXSO 16.5%
TXSOSmall
Home court
TXSO at home. This season: TXSO 0-0 at home, TAR 0-0 away
TXSOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TAR 48.3 and allows 53.6; TXSO 49.7 and allows 52.5
Even
Three-pointers
TAR hits 32.5% and allows 34.9%; TXSO hits 33.1% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 24.2% and 32.5% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TAR 23%, TXSO 37%. Transfers in: TAR 7, TXSO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TAR 41.9, TXSO 38.2. Allowed: TAR 47.7, TXSO 44.0
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TAR 31.5%, TXSO 28.8%. Defensive: TAR 64.9%, TXSO 68.8%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: TAR plays 71.2 a game (64th fastest), TXSO 71.8 (40th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TAR -6.3—
Total—147.9—
Projected score—TAR 77.1 · TXSO 70.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTAR -3.9—
1H total69.2—
1H projected scoreTAR 36.5 · TXSO 32.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Tarleton St has the better starters

Position by position: Tarleton St 3, Texas Southern 0, even 2
Tarleton StBetterTexas Southern
G C. Blackwell TR10.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 52
TARSmall
G K. Bilal TR5.6 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 23
G F. Emmou TR7.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 36
No call
G C. Patterson6.4 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
G L. Kelly5.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 41
No call
G B. Vungo TR3.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
G T. Cope TR8.3 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 47
TARBig
F A. Andrews2.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 7
F I. Harrell TR7.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 23
TARSmall
C J. Gorecki2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5
Tarleton StBetterTexas Southern
TAR offense200th of 366 · -6.3
TARSmall
TXSO defense323rd of 366 · -8.4
TAR defense186th of 366 · -4.3
TARSmall
TXSO offense311th of 366 · -9.7
Backcourt-3.3 · 4 players
TXSOSmall
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
TARSmall
Frontcourt-4.1 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 5 players
TARBig
Bench-4.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTAR betterTXSO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tarleton St
Guards
C. Blackwell31 min · TRF. Emmou23 min · TRL. Kelly21 minT. Cope21 min · TRK. Douglas16 minJ. Martinez2 min
Forwards
I. Harrell26 min · TRJ. Daniel19 min · TRJ. Hayes13 min · TRJ. Mani12 min · TRM. Vrabel7 minE. CarterNew
Texas Southern
Guards
K. Bilal21 min · TRC. Patterson16 minB. Vungo12 min · TRA. Nedal12 minJ. Hamilton7 minJ. Kimbrough4 min · TR
Forwards
A. Andrews13 minJ. Akpovwa9 minX. Wedlow3 min · TRJ. FarmerNew
Centers
J. Gorecki17 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TARTXSO
Scoring
72.5 #231Points per game73.9 #204
1.01 #309Points per possession1.03 #293
71.2 #64Pace (possessions)71.8 #40
Shooting
48.3 #306Effective FG%49.7 #251
32.5 #2563-point %33.1 #224
24.2 #3653-point attempt rate32.5 #324
41.9 #33Free throw rate38.2 #96
Possessions
19.9 #348Turnover rate18.5 #297
31.5 #141Offensive rebound rate28.8 #237
10.5 #349Assists per game11.1 #332
Defense
75.8 #211Points allowed80.0 #318
1.07 #130Points allowed per possession1.12 #260
53.6 #285Opponent effective FG%52.5 #240
34.9 #244Opponent 3-point %34.1 #190
23.5 #2Turnovers forced16.5 #188
64.9 #340Defensive rebound rate68.8 #211
9.7 #3Steals per game6.6 #167
3.1 #206Blocks per game3.3 #173
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tarleton St

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Abilene Chrstn78–84
  • Lvs UT Arlington60–65
  • L@ CA Baptist67–82
  • L@ Utah Valley72–79
  • Lvs Utah Tech72–80

A week or more of rest.

Texas Southern

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alabama A&M74–85
  • Lvs Prairie View59–70
  • Wvs Jackson St82–57
  • Wvs Alcorn St92–87
  • L@ Miss Valley St71–72

A week or more of rest.