1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. NDSU @ CSU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

North Dakota State Bison at Colorado State Rams

Moby Arena · at Colorado St
#213NDSUN Dakota St
@
#87CSUColorado St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NDSUThis seasonCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSU 80–66 · win probability CSU 89%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

NDSU 2, CSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, CSU the 96th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NDSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, CSU 18.5%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, CSU 15.4%
CSUBig
NDSU offense vs CSU defense
Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings
NDSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, CSU 30.0%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, CSU 70.8%
CSUSmall
CSU offense vs NDSU defense
Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), CSU 64.4 (355th). Faster games mean more points
CSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, CSU 67%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, CSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, CSU 39.4. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, CSU 34.2
CSUSmall
Home court
CSU at home. This season: CSU 0-0 at home, NDSU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 42.8% and 49.1% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CSU -13.9—
Total—145.2—
Projected score—NDSU 65.7 · CSU 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCSU -8.1—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreNDSU 29.9 · CSU 38—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Colorado St has the better starters

Position by position: N Dakota St 0, Colorado St 3, even 2
N Dakota StBetterColorado St
G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19
CSUBig
G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79
G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42
CSUSmall
G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64
G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79
Even
G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67
G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87
F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31
CSUBig
F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90
N Dakota StBetterColorado St
NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5
CSUBig
CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2
NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3
CSUSmall
CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2
Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players
CSUBig
Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
CSUBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.7 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNDSU betterCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Dakota St
Guards
M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR
Forwards
K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew
Colorado St
Guards
J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew
Forwards
K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew
Centers
J. ClarkNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NDSUCSU
Scoring
78.7 #87Points per game74.8 #169
1.14 #76Points per possession1.16 #44
69.2 #169Pace (possessions)64.4 #355
Shooting
53.2 #92Effective FG%57.5 #12
35.4 #933-point %38.6 #9
42.8 #1223-point attempt rate49.1 #19
30.6 #289Free throw rate39.4 #69
Possessions
15.6 #108Turnover rate18.5 #298
32.9 #89Offensive rebound rate30.0 #198
14.8 #97Assists per game15.6 #62
Defense
71.4 #90Points allowed71.6 #95
1.03 #63Points allowed per possession1.11 #241
52.0 #215Opponent effective FG%52.9 #263
33.9 #173Opponent 3-point %34.2 #196
18.7 #62Turnovers forced15.4 #255
74.5 #15Defensive rebound rate70.8 #123
7.7 #64Steals per game5.2 #320
2.8 #265Blocks per game2.1 #338
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan St67–92
  • Wvs North Dakota70–62
  • Wvs Omaha74–50
  • Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
  • Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
  • Lvs San Diego St62–71
  • Wvs Fresno St67–63
  • Lvs Boise St67–78
  • W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.