San José State Spartans vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 11:59 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: San José St and Loyola Chicago
SJSU	This season	LUC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LUC 74–72 · win probability LUC 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

SJSU 2, LUC 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SJSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SJSU 15.1%, LUC 19.8%. Forced: SJSU 17.4%, LUC 12.9%

LUCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SJSU 29.3%, LUC 30.5%. Defensive: SJSU 63.5%, LUC 70.3%

SJSUBig

Three-pointers

SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%; LUC hits 31.7% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 38.3% and 47.7% of their shots

LUCSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1; LUC 49.8 and allows 52.0

LUCSmall

SJSU offense vs LUC defense

Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 90th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SJSU 33.4, LUC 34.8. Allowed: SJSU 35.4, LUC 33.6

Context

Schedule so far

SJSU has played the 85th-hardest schedule, LUC the 112th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

LUC offense vs SJSU defense

Offense 132nd of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SJSU 24%, LUC 22%. Transfers in: SJSU 6, LUC 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: SJSU plays 66.0 a game (315th fastest), LUC 66.1 (309th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LUC -1.9	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	SJSU 71.8 · LUC 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LUC -1.0	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	SJSU 33.5 · LUC 34.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SJSU LLLWW	16-16	50%	3-1	—
LUC WWWWW	13-20	39%	3-3	—

Venue/role: SJSU neutral site; LUC neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OUOOO	21-11	66%	8-24
LUC UUUOU	15-18	45%	9-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
LUC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San José St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ UVU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs SEA	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs LBSU	W89–83LO

Loyola Chicago

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ MASS	W74–51WU
Dec 10	@ HOW	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs IUIN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SJSU 1–1 LUCSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · SJSU 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2025-26	SJSU 63 vs LUC 51	LUC +1.5	SJSU W
Mar 19, 2024-25	LUC 73 @ SJSU 70	SJSU +3.5	SJSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San José St

32 games played

Straight up

8-24

25% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2425%

L L L W L W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L W W L W L W L W L L W L L W L L W L W W W L W W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O O U U U U U O O O O O O U U O U O U O O U O O O O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UTAH	L 75-84	+11.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 8	@UCSB	L 74-85	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 13	@MSU	L 60-79	+24.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 21	vsSOU	W 80-66	-5.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 25	vsTLSA	L 51-81	+5.5	L −24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsLUC	W 63-51	-1.5	W +10.5	136.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsUCI	L 63-72	+3.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 5	vsUSD	W 86-69	-6.5	W +10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsLBSU	W 89-83	-7.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 13	vsSTAN	L 82-86	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 168
Dec 20	@UNM	L 65-88	+16.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	vsSDSU	L 68-81	+11.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 3	@USU	L 78-96	+22.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 174
Jan 6	vsFRES	L 55-70	+1.5	L −13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@GCU	L 58-76	+16.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 134
Jan 13	vsAF	W 70-62	-5.5	W +2.5	128.5	O 132
Jan 17	vsUNLV	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 20	@NEV	L 54-87	+16.5	L −16.5	137.5	O 141
Jan 24	@WYO	L 62-66	+13.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsBOIS	L 58-89	+12.5	L −18.5	141.5	O 147
Jan 31	vsUNM	L 80-90	+15.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 7	@CSU	L 57-65	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@UNLV	L 75-82	+12.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsGCU	L 79-94	+11.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 173
Feb 17	vsNEV	W 87-71	+10.5	W +26.5	141.5	O 158
Feb 21	@BOIS	L 69-84	+18.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 24	@AF	W 86-80	-6.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 166
Feb 28	vsCSU	L 73-85	+4.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 3	@FRES	L 68-82	+7.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	vsWYO	L 78-88	+6.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsBOIS	W 84-74	+14.5	W +24.5	146.5	O 158
Mar 12	vsUNM	L 77-93	+16.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+2.5

UCSB

L 74-85

−1.5

MSU

L 60-79

+5.5

SOU

W 80-66

+8.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−24.5

LUC

W 63-51

+10.5

UCI

L 63-72

−5.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

−1.5

STAN

L 82-86

+4.5

UNM

L 65-88

−6.5

SDSU

L 68-81

−1.5

USU

L 78-96

+4.5

FRES

L 55-70

−13.5

GCU

L 58-76

−1.5

W 70-62

+2.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−6.5

NEV

L 54-87

−16.5

WYO

L 62-66

+9.5

BOIS

L 58-89

−18.5

UNM

L 80-90

+5.5

CSU

L 57-65

+7.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+5.5

GCU

L 79-94

−3.5

NEV

W 87-71

+26.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+3.5

W 86-80

−0.5

CSU

L 73-85

−7.5

FRES

L 68-82

−6.5

WYO

L 78-88

−3.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+24.5

UNM

L 77-93

+0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 75-84

+12.5

UCSB

L 74-85

+12.5

MSU

L 60-79

−4.5

SOU

W 80-66

−4.5

TLSA

L 51-81

−17.5

LUC

W 63-51

−22.5

UCI

L 63-72

−4.5

USD

W 86-69

+10.5

LBSU

W 89-83

+30.5

STAN

L 82-86

+22.5

UNM

L 65-88

+0.5

SDSU

L 68-81

+7.5

USU

L 78-96

+22.5

FRES

L 55-70

−24.5

GCU

L 58-76

−7.5

W 70-62

+3.5

UNLV

L 62-76

−8.5

NEV

L 54-87

+3.5

WYO

L 62-66

−13.5

BOIS

L 58-89

+5.5

UNM

L 80-90

+21.5

CSU

L 57-65

−16.5

UNLV

L 75-82

+7.5

GCU

L 79-94

+33.5

NEV

W 87-71

+16.5

BOIS

L 69-84

+6.5

W 86-80

+20.5

CSU

L 73-85

+6.5

FRES

L 68-82

−1.5

WYO

L 78-88

+17.5

BOIS

W 84-74

+11.5

UNM

L 77-93

+15.5

over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Loyola Chicago

33 games played

Straight up

9-24

27% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2427%

W L L L L L L L W W L L W W L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W W L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1845%

O U U O U U U U O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCLE	W 91-88	-17.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 6	vsMERC	L 65-73	-21.5	L −29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsUNT	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 13	@WICH	L 74-95	+5.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 16	vsCSU	L 67-80	+3.5	L −9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsNIU	L 59-76	-13.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	vsUNI	L 51-72	+8.5	L −12.5	134.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsSJSU	L 51-63	+1.5	L −10.5	136.5	U 114
Dec 2	vsCMU	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 155
Dec 6	vsPRIN	W 73-68	-6.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 14	vsCHST	L 75-84	-15.5	L −24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 17	@SF	L 71-85	+11.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsSCU	W 80-78	+15.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 31	@URI	W 61-57	+9.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsDAY	L 68-70	+7.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 7	vsDAV	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	@GW	L 66-101	+14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 13	vsGMU	L 74-82	+11.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 16	@DAY	L 51-78	+16.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 20	@SBU	L 70-84	+10.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsDUQ	L 59-71	+5.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 27	vsJOES	L 64-85	+1.5	L −19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 30	@VCU	L 75-89	+18.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 164
Feb 3	vsLAS	W 71-61	-2.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 6	@DAV	L 64-84	+9.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 13	vsSLU	L 59-86	+17.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 145
Feb 18	@FOR	L 59-62	+8.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 121
Feb 21	@JOES	L 61-75	+9.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 28	vsRICH	W 69-66	+2.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 135
Mar 4	@SLU	L 65-79	+21.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 144
Mar 7	vsGW	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 11	vsRICH	W 75-67	+4.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 12	vsDAV	L 59-64	+5.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

−14.5

MERC

L 65-73

−29.5

UNT

L 62-64

−3.5

WICH

L 74-95

−15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−9.5

NIU

L 59-76

−30.5

UNI

L 51-72

−12.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−10.5

CMU

W 83-72

+4.5

PRIN

W 73-68

−1.5

CHST

L 75-84

−24.5

L 71-85

−2.5

SCU

W 80-78

+17.5

URI

W 61-57

+13.5

DAY

L 68-70

+5.5

DAV

L 64-79

−13.5

L 66-101

−20.5

GMU

L 74-82

+3.5

DAY

L 51-78

−10.5

SBU

L 70-84

−3.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−6.5

JOES

L 64-85

−19.5

VCU

L 75-89

+4.5

LAS

W 71-61

+7.5

DAV

L 64-84

−10.5

SLU

L 59-86

−9.5

FOR

L 59-62

+5.5

JOES

L 61-75

−4.5

RICH

W 69-66

+5.5

SLU

L 65-79

+7.5

W 68-62

+15.5

RICH

W 75-67

+12.5

DAV

L 59-64

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLE

W 91-88

+27.5

MERC

L 65-73

−6.5

UNT

L 62-64

−12.5

WICH

L 74-95

+15.5

CSU

L 67-80

−4.5

NIU

L 59-76

−13.5

UNI

L 51-72

−11.5

SJSU

L 51-63

−22.5

CMU

W 83-72

+14.5

PRIN

W 73-68

+4.5

CHST

L 75-84

+18.5

L 71-85

+12.5

SCU

W 80-78

+6.5

URI

W 61-57

−27.5

DAY

L 68-70

−2.5

DAV

L 64-79

+6.5

L 66-101

+12.5

GMU

L 74-82

+15.5

DAY

L 51-78

−12.5

SBU

L 70-84

+6.5

DUQ

L 59-71

−22.5

JOES

L 64-85

+5.5

VCU

L 75-89

+13.5

LAS

W 71-61

−8.5

DAV

L 64-84

+7.5

SLU

L 59-86

−10.5

FOR

L 59-62

−14.5

JOES

L 61-75

−6.5

RICH

W 69-66

−11.5

SLU

L 65-79

−11.5

W 68-62

−18.5

RICH

W 75-67

+0.5

DAV

L 59-64

−9.5

over 15under 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Position by position: San José St 0, Loyola Chicago 1, even 4

San José StBetterLoyola Chicago

G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35

LUCSmall

G D. Hand TR12.4 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 58

G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Nessah TR15.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 91

F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G R. Agarwal TR5.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26

F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F E. Ricks TR7.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 53

F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61

Even

F X. Amos11.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 65

San José StBetterLoyola Chicago

SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3

Even

LUC defense90th of 366 · -0.2

SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3

Even

LUC offense132nd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players

LUCSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players

SJSUSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 3 players

Even

Bench+0.6 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSJSU betterLUC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

San José St

Guards

P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew

Forwards

Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew

Centers

M. Dau NyangolNew

Loyola Chicago

Guards

D. Hand31 min · TRD. Nessah28 min · TRR. Agarwal22 min · TRN. Anderson17 minJ. Dawson10 min · TRC. Jeffrey8 min · TR

Forwards

E. Ricks27 min · TRX. Amos26 minE. Rapieque15 min · TRA. WingNew

Centers

J. Schofield17 min · TRM. Diallo7 min · TRR. KreagerNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SJSU70.8 #269

LUC66.8 #337

Points per possession

SJSU1.07 #203

LUC1.01 #313

Pace (possessions)

SJSU66.0 #315

LUC66.1 #309

Shooting

Effective FG%

SJSU49.7 #255

LUC49.8 #246

3-point %

SJSU35.3 #97

LUC31.7 #296

3-point attempt rate

SJSU38.3 #204

LUC47.7 #27

Free throw rate

SJSU33.4 #225

LUC34.8 #188

Possessions

Turnover rate

SJSU15.1 #77

LUC19.8 #343

Offensive rebound rate

SJSU29.3 #225

LUC30.5 #179

Assists per game

SJSU10.3 #353

LUC13.9 #151

Defense

Points allowed

SJSU79.2 #305

LUC75.8 #212

Points allowed per possession

SJSU1.20 #359

LUC1.14 #315

Opponent effective FG%

SJSU57.1 #359

LUC52.0 #214

Opponent 3-point %

SJSU36.0 #305

LUC36.8 #342

Turnovers forced

SJSU17.4 #123

LUC12.9 #357

Defensive rebound rate

SJSU63.5 #354

LUC70.3 #146

Steals per game

SJSU5.8 #259

LUC4.1 #363

Blocks per game

SJSU2.2 #333

LUC3.8 #101

SJSU		LUC
Scoring
70.8 #269	Points per game	66.8 #337
1.07 #203	Points per possession	1.01 #313
66.0 #315	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #309
Shooting
49.7 #255	Effective FG%	49.8 #246
35.3 #97	3-point %	31.7 #296
38.3 #204	3-point attempt rate	47.7 #27
33.4 #225	Free throw rate	34.8 #188
Possessions
15.1 #77	Turnover rate	19.8 #343
29.3 #225	Offensive rebound rate	30.5 #179
10.3 #353	Assists per game	13.9 #151
Defense
79.2 #305	Points allowed	75.8 #212
1.20 #359	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #315
57.1 #359	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #214
36.0 #305	Opponent 3-point %	36.8 #342
17.4 #123	Turnovers forced	12.9 #357
63.5 #354	Defensive rebound rate	70.3 #146
5.8 #259	Steals per game	4.1 #363
2.2 #333	Blocks per game	3.8 #101

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs New Mexico77–93
Wvs Boise St84–74
Lvs Wyoming78–88
L@ Fresno St68–82
Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Chicago

9-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Davidson59–64
Wvs Richmond75–67
Wvs G Washington68–62
L@ Saint Louis65–79
Wvs Richmond69–66

A week or more of rest.

San José State Spartans vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers

What could decide it: LUC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

San José St

Loyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

San José St

Loyola Chicago