Seattle U Redhawks vs UC San Diego Tritons: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 9:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Seattle U and UC San Diego
SEA	This season	UCSD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SEA 70–69 · win probability SEA 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

SEA 2, UCSD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCSDBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SEA 23.7%, UCSD 26.1%. Defensive: SEA 68.2%, UCSD 73.0%

Context

Schedule so far

SEA has played the 114th-hardest schedule, UCSD the 205th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCSDSmall

SEA offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 183rd of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

SEASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SEA 16.7%, UCSD 16.5%. Forced: SEA 21.2%, UCSD 16.8%

SEASmall

UCSD offense vs SEA defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 76th, on the model’s ratings

UCSDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SEA 49.8 and allows 48.4; UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SEA 50%, UCSD 68%. Transfers in: SEA 3, UCSD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: SEA plays 69.1 a game (175th fastest), UCSD 69.7 (130th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

SEA hits 33.7% and allows 32.1%; UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 39.4% and 42.3% of their shots

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SEA 34.2, UCSD 31.2. Allowed: SEA 33.0, UCSD 29.3

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SEA -0.7	—
Total	—	138.4	—
Projected score	—	SEA 69.6 · UCSD 68.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEA -0.6	—
1H total	64.8	—
1H projected score	SEA 32.7 · UCSD 32.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SEA WLLWW	15-18	45%	1-3	—
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	4-2	—

Venue/role: SEA neutral site; UCSD neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OUUUO	13-20	39%	19-14
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Seattle U

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UCI	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs NORF	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ SJSU	No recent meeting

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs LMU	W67–57WU
Dec 3	vs CBU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ UCI	W71–69WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SEA 4–0 UCSDSEA leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · SEA has won the last 4 meetings · SEA 4-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	SEA 84 @ UCSD 71	UCSD -7.5	SEA W
Nov 26, 2023-24	UCSD 67 @ SEA 79	SEA -8.5	SEA W
Nov 7, 2022-23	SEA 85 @ UCSD 71	UCSD +3.5	SEA W
Dec 12, 2021-22	UCSD 51 @ SEA 73	SEA -4	SEA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Seattle U

33 games played

Straight up

19-14

58% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1458%

W L W W W W L W W W W L W L L L W L W L L W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

O U O O U U O O O U U U U U O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEN	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsCP	L 71-73	-10.5	L −12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	vsEWU	W 94-67	-8.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 15	vsIDST	W 83-74	-11.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 21	@STAN	W 77-69	+10.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 28	vsTXST	W 66-52	-7.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 118
Nov 29	vsUCSB	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 145
Dec 7	vsUTEP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 17	@UCD	W 79-78	-2.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Dec 19	vsWASH	W 70-66	+7.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 136
Dec 22	@UTSA	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSF	L 59-67	-2.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsWSU	W 69-55	-6.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 2	@GONZ	L 72-80	+24.5	W +16.5	155.5	U 152
Jan 4	@SMC	L 76-93	+11.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 8	@ORST	L 55-68	-4.5	L −17.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 15	vsUSD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsGONZ	L 50-71	+9.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 121
Jan 21	vsLMU	W 69-59	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 24	@PAC	L 54-56	+1.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 110
Jan 28	@WSU	L 58-70	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 128
Feb 4	vsPEPP	W 83-81	-12.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 7	@PORT	L 53-54	-3.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 107
Feb 11	@SCU	L 72-84	+12.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 15	vsORST	W 60-50	-6.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 110
Feb 18	vsSMC	L 70-72	+9.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	vsPORT	W 71-59	-7.5	W +4.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 25	@PEPP	W 87-80	-7.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 167
Feb 28	@LMU	W 71-66	+1.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 6	vsUSD	W 58-56	-8.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 114
Mar 7	vsPAC	L 58-61	+1.5	L −1.5	129.5	U 119
Mar 17	vsSTMN	W 67-52	-2.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 119
Mar 22	@AUB	L 85-91	+14.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

−2.5

L 71-73

−12.5

EWU

W 94-67

+18.5

IDST

W 83-74

−2.5

STAN

W 77-69

+18.5

TXST

W 66-52

+6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

−5.5

UTEP

W 75-68

−5.5

UCD

W 79-78

−1.5

WASH

W 70-66

+11.5

UTSA

W 71-68

−7.5

L 59-67

−10.5

WSU

W 69-55

+7.5

GONZ

L 72-80

+16.5

SMC

L 76-93

−5.5

ORST

L 55-68

−17.5

USD

W 75-64

+1.5

GONZ

L 50-71

−11.5

LMU

W 69-59

+5.5

PAC

L 54-56

−0.5

WSU

L 58-70

−10.5

PEPP

W 83-81

−10.5

PORT

L 53-54

−4.5

SCU

L 72-84

+0.5

ORST

W 60-50

+3.5

SMC

L 70-72

+7.5

PORT

W 71-59

+4.5

PEPP

W 87-80

−0.5

LMU

W 71-66

+6.5

USD

W 58-56

−6.5

PAC

L 58-61

−1.5

STMN

W 67-52

+12.5

AUB

L 85-91

+8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

+20.5

L 71-73

−20.5

EWU

W 94-67

+12.5

IDST

W 83-74

+18.5

STAN

W 77-69

−6.5

TXST

W 66-52

−18.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+2.5

UTEP

W 75-68

+6.5

UCD

W 79-78

+13.5

WASH

W 70-66

−15.5

UTSA

W 71-68

−9.5

L 59-67

−20.5

WSU

W 69-55

−20.5

GONZ

L 72-80

−3.5

SMC

L 76-93

+29.5

ORST

L 55-68

−16.5

USD

W 75-64

−8.5

GONZ

L 50-71

−29.5

LMU

W 69-59

−13.5

PAC

L 54-56

−27.5

WSU

L 58-70

−14.5

PEPP

W 83-81

+24.5

PORT

L 53-54

−36.5

SCU

L 72-84

+8.5

ORST

W 60-50

−26.5

SMC

L 70-72

+8.5

PORT

W 71-59

−10.5

PEPP

W 87-80

+21.5

LMU

W 71-66

+0.5

USD

W 58-56

−25.5

PAC

L 58-61

−10.5

STMN

W 67-52

−26.5

AUB

L 85-91

+30.5

over 13under 20avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Seattle U 1, UC San Diego 1, even 3

Seattle UBetterUC San Diego

G T. Boston TR14.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 76

SEASmall

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

G M. Arington4.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 4 ast Score 41

UCSDSmall

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

F J. Yeo12.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 45

Even

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

F W. Heimbrodt12.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.3 ast Score 72

Even

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

F T. Thrastarson TR9.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 54

Even

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

Seattle UBetterUC San Diego

SEA offense183rd of 366 · -5.7

UCSDSmall

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

SEA defense76th of 366 · +0.6

SEASmall

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

Backcourt-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.6 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench+0.1 · 3 players

SEABig

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSEA betterUCSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Seattle U

Guards

T. Boston33 min · TRM. Arington31 minK. HansenNewM. WilliamsNewJ. WhiteNewJ. HarshmanNew

Forwards

J. Yeo32 minW. Heimbrodt32 minT. Thrastarson23 min · TRY. Kawashima3 minR. Adams2 min

Centers

H. Dzellat8 min · TRL. CoulibalyNew

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SEA70.1 #283

UCSD74.5 #179

Points per possession

SEA1.01 #312

UCSD1.07 #211

Pace (possessions)

SEA69.1 #175

UCSD69.7 #130

Shooting

Effective FG%

SEA49.8 #249

UCSD52.6 #124

3-point %

SEA33.7 #186

UCSD32.8 #241

3-point attempt rate

SEA39.4 #185

UCSD42.3 #131

Free throw rate

SEA34.2 #201

UCSD31.2 #277

Possessions

Turnover rate

SEA16.7 #178

UCSD16.5 #165

Offensive rebound rate

SEA23.7 #347

UCSD26.1 #320

Assists per game

SEA13.2 #201

UCSD14.9 #94

Defense

Points allowed

SEA68.2 #34

UCSD70.5 #63

Points allowed per possession

SEA0.99 #20

UCSD1.01 #35

Opponent effective FG%

SEA48.4 #46

UCSD48.4 #45

Opponent 3-point %

SEA32.1 #69

UCSD31.6 #45

Turnovers forced

SEA21.2 #9

UCSD16.8 #165

Defensive rebound rate

SEA68.2 #249

UCSD73.0 #38

Steals per game

SEA7.8 #52

UCSD7.4 #94

Blocks per game

SEA4.9 #20

UCSD2.6 #299

SEA		UCSD
Scoring
70.1 #283	Points per game	74.5 #179
1.01 #312	Points per possession	1.07 #211
69.1 #175	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #130
Shooting
49.8 #249	Effective FG%	52.6 #124
33.7 #186	3-point %	32.8 #241
39.4 #185	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #131
34.2 #201	Free throw rate	31.2 #277
Possessions
16.7 #178	Turnover rate	16.5 #165
23.7 #347	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #320
13.2 #201	Assists per game	14.9 #94
Defense
68.2 #34	Points allowed	70.5 #63
0.99 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #35
48.4 #46	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #45
32.1 #69	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #45
21.2 #9	Turnovers forced	16.8 #165
68.2 #249	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #38
7.8 #52	Steals per game	7.4 #94
4.9 #20	Blocks per game	2.6 #299

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Seattle U

19-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Auburn85–91
Wvs St Thomas67–52
Lvs Pacific58–61
Wvs San Diego58–56
W@ LMU71–66

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

Seattle U Redhawks vs UC San Diego Tritons

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Seattle U

UC San Diego

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Seattle U

UC San Diego