Loyola Marymount Lions at UC San Diego Tritons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 28, 10:00 PM ETLionTree Arena · at UC San Diego

#121LMULMU

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: LMU and UC San Diego
LMU	This season	UCSD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSD 73–69 · win probability UCSD 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

LMU 0, UCSD 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UCSDSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LMU 26.7%, UCSD 26.1%. Defensive: LMU 68.0%, UCSD 73.0%

UCSDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LMU 22%, UCSD 68%. Transfers in: LMU 8, UCSD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

LMU has played the 131st-hardest schedule, UCSD the 205th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UCSDSmall

Home court

UCSD at home. This season: UCSD 0-0 at home, LMU 0-0 away

Even

LMU offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 152nd of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LMU 17.4%, UCSD 16.5%. Forced: LMU 16.6%, UCSD 16.8%

Even

UCSD offense vs LMU defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 104th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

LMU hits 34.8% and allows 34.6%; UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 40.4% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LMU 31.1, UCSD 31.2. Allowed: LMU 32.5, UCSD 29.3

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LMU plays 68.9 a game (185th fastest), UCSD 69.7 (130th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LMU 51.9 and allows 48.9; UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCSD -3.8	—
Total	—	141.8	—
Projected score	—	LMU 69 · UCSD 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSD -2.1	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	LMU 32.1 · UCSD 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LMU LWLLL	14-17	45%	5-6	—
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	5-8	—

Venue/role: LMU away; UCSD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LMU OUUOU	15-16	48%	14-17
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

LMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 4	vs HAW	No recent meeting
Dec 7	vs FGCU	No recent meeting
Dec 9	@ NEV	W68–64WU

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs CBU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ UCI	W71–69WU
Dec 15	@ STMN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LMU 0–1 UCSDUCSD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LMU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2025-26	UCSD 67 @ LMU 57	LMU +1.5	UCSD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LMU

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W W W W L W L L L W W L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

L W W W W L W L L L W W W W W L W L L L L L L W W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U O U U O U U O O U O U O O O U O O O U U U O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsEWU	W 70-62	-9.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsUAPB	W 94-72	-19.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@UTEP	W 71-58	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 14	vsTROY	W 74-63	-4.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 17	@UCSB	W 78-74	+3.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 24	vsFAU	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsOHIO	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 128
Nov 28	vsSTBK	L 68-71	-10.5	L −13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 2	vsSLU	L 70-91	+7.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 16	vsUCSD	L 57-67	+1.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUNA	W 91-57	-10.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 23	vsMORG	W 83-56	-23.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 28	vsSMC	L 73-78	+9.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsPAC	W 80-71	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 2	@WSU	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 154
Jan 4	@GONZ	L 47-82	+25.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 129
Jan 8	vsSF	W 84-82	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 166
Jan 10	@SCU	L 72-103	+11.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 175
Jan 14	@ORST	L 70-76	-1.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsPORT	L 58-71	-8.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 21	@SEA	L 59-69	+4.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 28	vsORST	L 69-72	-5.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 141
Jan 31	vsSCU	L 73-104	+8.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 4	@SF	W 84-75	+8.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsUSD	W 83-63	-6.5	W +13.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 11	@PAC	L 59-65	+5.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Feb 14	@PEPP	L 89-90	-5.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 179
Feb 21	@USD	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Feb 25	vsWSU	W 67-66	-1.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 133
Feb 28	vsSEA	L 66-71	-1.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 5	vsUSD	L 62-66	-5.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−1.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+2.5

UTEP

W 71-58

+14.5

TROY

W 74-63

+6.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+7.5

FAU

L 65-76

−7.5

OHIO

W 70-58

+8.5

STBK

L 68-71

−13.5

SLU

L 70-91

−13.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−8.5

UNA

W 91-57

+23.5

MORG

W 83-56

+3.5

SMC

L 73-78

+4.5

PAC

W 80-71

+5.5

WSU

L 76-78

+1.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−9.5

W 84-82

+0.5

SCU

L 72-103

−19.5

ORST

L 70-76

−7.5

PORT

L 58-71

−21.5

SEA

L 59-69

−5.5

ORST

L 69-72

−8.5

SCU

L 73-104

−22.5

W 84-75

+17.5

USD

W 83-63

+13.5

PAC

L 59-65

−0.5

PEPP

L 89-90

−6.5

USD

W 77-65

+9.5

WSU

W 67-66

−0.5

SEA

L 66-71

−6.5

USD

L 62-66

−9.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 70-62

−21.5

UAPB

W 94-72

+8.5

UTEP

W 71-58

−15.5

TROY

W 74-63

−3.5

UCSB

W 78-74

+6.5

FAU

L 65-76

−3.5

OHIO

W 70-58

−16.5

STBK

L 68-71

+0.5

SLU

L 70-91

+10.5

UCSD

L 57-67

−26.5

UNA

W 91-57

+7.5

MORG

W 83-56

−5.5

SMC

L 73-78

+7.5

PAC

W 80-71

+11.5

WSU

L 76-78

+11.5

GONZ

L 47-82

−25.5

W 84-82

+24.5

SCU

L 72-103

+21.5

ORST

L 70-76

+5.5

PORT

L 58-71

−19.5

SEA

L 59-69

−13.5

ORST

L 69-72

−0.5

SCU

L 73-104

+23.5

W 84-75

+13.5

USD

W 83-63

−5.5

PAC

L 59-65

−17.5

PEPP

L 89-90

+31.5

USD

W 77-65

−7.5

WSU

W 67-66

−16.5

SEA

L 66-71

+0.5

USD

L 62-66

−17.5

over 15under 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC San Diego has the better starters

Position by position: LMU 1, UC San Diego 2, even 2

LMUBetterUC San Diego

G Z. Sensley TR10.5 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 72

LMUSmall

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

G A. Wright TR7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 2 ast Score 59

Even

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

F C. Humphrey-Rembert TR7.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 24

UCSDSmall

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

F A. McBride7.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

UCSDSmall

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

F D. Rivers TR8.6 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 48

Even

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

LMUBetterUC San Diego

LMU offense152nd of 366 · -4.6

Even

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

LMU defense104th of 366 · -1.0

Even

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

Backcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players

UCSDSmall

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench+1.1 · 5 players

LMUBig

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLMU betterUCSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

LMU

Guards

Z. Sensley25 min · TRA. Wright22 min · TRA. Thomas14 minJ. Miles10 min · TRM. Mosley7 min · TRC. Smith2 min

Forwards

C. Humphrey-Rembert31 min · TRA. McBride27 minD. Rivers20 min · TRJ. Porter17 min · TRA. Sigiscar16 min · TRG. Tupy2 min

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LMU72.2 #236

UCSD74.5 #179

Points per possession

LMU1.04 #263

UCSD1.07 #211

Pace (possessions)

LMU68.9 #185

UCSD69.7 #130

Shooting

Effective FG%

LMU51.9 #152

UCSD52.6 #124

3-point %

LMU34.8 #130

UCSD32.8 #241

3-point attempt rate

LMU40.4 #162

UCSD42.3 #131

Free throw rate

LMU31.1 #280

UCSD31.2 #277

Possessions

Turnover rate

LMU17.4 #234

UCSD16.5 #165

Offensive rebound rate

LMU26.7 #307

UCSD26.1 #320

Assists per game

LMU12.7 #234

UCSD14.9 #94

Defense

Points allowed

LMU72.7 #122

UCSD70.5 #63

Points allowed per possession

LMU1.06 #103

UCSD1.01 #35

Opponent effective FG%

LMU48.9 #60

UCSD48.4 #45

Opponent 3-point %

LMU34.6 #225

UCSD31.6 #45

Turnovers forced

LMU16.6 #178

UCSD16.8 #165

Defensive rebound rate

LMU68.0 #258

UCSD73.0 #38

Steals per game

LMU6.0 #236

UCSD7.4 #94

Blocks per game

LMU3.9 #81

UCSD2.6 #299

LMU		UCSD
Scoring
72.2 #236	Points per game	74.5 #179
1.04 #263	Points per possession	1.07 #211
68.9 #185	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #130
Shooting
51.9 #152	Effective FG%	52.6 #124
34.8 #130	3-point %	32.8 #241
40.4 #162	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #131
31.1 #280	Free throw rate	31.2 #277
Possessions
17.4 #234	Turnover rate	16.5 #165
26.7 #307	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #320
12.7 #234	Assists per game	14.9 #94
Defense
72.7 #122	Points allowed	70.5 #63
1.06 #103	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #35
48.9 #60	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #45
34.6 #225	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #45
16.6 #178	Turnovers forced	16.8 #165
68.0 #258	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #38
6.0 #236	Steals per game	7.4 #94
3.9 #81	Blocks per game	2.6 #299

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

LMU

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs San Diego62–66
Lvs Seattle U66–71
Wvs Washington St67–66
W@ San Diego77–65
L@ Pepperdine89–90

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

Loyola Marymount Lions at UC San Diego Tritons

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

LMU

UC San Diego

UC San Diego has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

LMU

UC San Diego