California Baptist Lancers at UC San Diego Tritons: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 10:30 PM ETLionTree Arena · at UC San Diego · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CA Baptist and UC San Diego
CBU	This season	UCSD
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSD 75–67 · win probability UCSD 77%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

CBU 1, UCSD 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CBUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CBU 37.5%, UCSD 26.1%. Defensive: CBU 72.8%, UCSD 73.0%

UCSDBig

CBU offense vs UCSD defense

Offense 246th of 366 against a defense 110th, on the model’s ratings

UCSDSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CBU 18%, UCSD 68%. Transfers in: CBU 2, UCSD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UCSDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CBU 48.3 and allows 46.3; UCSD 52.6 and allows 48.4

UCSDSmall

Home court

UCSD at home. This season: UCSD 0-0 at home, CBU 0-0 away

UCSDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CBU 18.0%, UCSD 16.5%. Forced: CBU 16.9%, UCSD 16.8%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: CBU plays 68.3 a game (217th fastest), UCSD 69.7 (130th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

CBU hits 33.4% and allows 29.5%; UCSD hits 32.8% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 32.0% and 42.3% of their shots

Even

UCSD offense vs CBU defense

Offense 145th of 366 against a defense 178th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CBU 35.9, UCSD 31.2. Allowed: CBU 36.6, UCSD 29.3

Context

Schedule so far

CBU has played the 202nd-hardest schedule, UCSD the 205th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UCSD -8.4	—
Total	—	141.8	—
Projected score	—	CBU 66.7 · UCSD 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSD -4.9	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	CBU 30.7 · UCSD 35.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CBU WWWWW	20-14	59%	9-6	—
UCSD WLWLL	16-16	50%	5-8	—

Venue/role: CBU away; UCSD home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CBU UOOUU	12-22	35%	25-9
UCSD UUUUU	12-20	38%	21-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CBU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
UCSD	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CA Baptist

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ UCR	W80–57WU
Dec 9	@ UTAH	L85–91LO
Dec 14	@ UCD	No recent meeting

UC San Diego

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ UCI	W71–69WU
Dec 15	@ STMN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CA Baptist

34 games played

Straight up

25-9

74% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-974%

W W W W W W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L L W L W W W W L L W L L W W W W W W W

7 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

O U U U U U O U U O O U U U U O O U U U O O U U O U U U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144
Dec 1	@COLO	L 70-78	+13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 148
Dec 3	@BYU	L 60-91	+18.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 6	@UTAH	L 85-91	+5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 176
Dec 12	@EWU	W 88-83	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 171
Dec 16	vsSOU	W 75-67	-12.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 20	vsSAC	W 74-67	-14.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 141
Dec 29	@UVU	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 1	@UTA	L 51-63	-2.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 114
Jan 3	@TAR	L 76-81	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 157
Jan 8	vsUTU	W 84-72	-7.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 156
Jan 10	vsSUU	W 58-55	-14.5	L −11.5	150.5	U 113
Jan 15	@ACU	W 74-58	+1.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 21	vsUTU	W 73-64	-8.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Jan 24	vsUVU	W 78-71	-1.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 31	@UTA	W 87-77	-1.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 164
Feb 5	vsTAR	W 56-55	-10.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 111
Feb 7	vsACU	W 65-63	-8.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 128
Feb 12	@SUU	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 14	@UTU	L 65-70	-2.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 19	@UVU	L 46-65	+8.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 111
Feb 26	vsUTA	W 68-56	-6.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 28	vsTAR	W 82-67	-8.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 149
Mar 5	vsACU	W 87-48	-9.5	W +29.5	136.5	U 135
Mar 7	@SUU	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 157
Mar 13	vsUTU	W 86-72	-8.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 158
Mar 14	vsUVU	W 63-61	+2.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 124
Mar 20	vsKU	L 60-68	+14.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

COLO

L 70-78

+5.5

BYU

L 60-91

−12.5

UTAH

L 85-91

−0.5

EWU

W 88-83

+1.5

SOU

W 75-67

−4.5

SAC

W 74-67

−7.5

UVU

L 66-73

+0.5

UTA

L 51-63

−14.5

TAR

L 76-81

−3.5

UTU

W 84-72

+4.5

SUU

W 58-55

−11.5

ACU

W 74-58

+17.5

UTU

W 73-64

+0.5

UVU

W 78-71

+5.5

UTA

W 87-77

+8.5

TAR

W 56-55

−9.5

ACU

W 65-63

−6.5

SUU

W 83-66

+11.5

UTU

L 65-70

−7.5

UVU

L 46-65

−10.5

UTA

W 68-56

+5.5

TAR

W 82-67

+6.5

ACU

W 87-48

+29.5

SUU

W 82-75

+0.5

UTU

W 86-72

+5.5

UVU

W 63-61

+4.5

L 60-68

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

COLO

L 70-78

−2.5

BYU

L 60-91

−2.5

UTAH

L 85-91

+30.5

EWU

W 88-83

+17.5

SOU

W 75-67

−13.5

SAC

W 74-67

−17.5

UVU

L 66-73

−9.5

UTA

L 51-63

−20.5

TAR

L 76-81

+9.5

UTU

W 84-72

+11.5

SUU

W 58-55

−37.5

ACU

W 74-58

−8.5

UTU

W 73-64

−6.5

UVU

W 78-71

+1.5

UTA

W 87-77

+29.5

TAR

W 56-55

−27.5

ACU

W 65-63

−7.5

SUU

W 83-66

+1.5

UTU

L 65-70

−8.5

UVU

L 46-65

−31.5

UTA

W 68-56

−10.5

TAR

W 82-67

+9.5

ACU

W 87-48

−1.5

SUU

W 82-75

+8.5

UTU

W 86-72

+13.5

UVU

W 63-61

−15.5

L 60-68

−14.5

over 12under 22avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC San Diego

32 games played

Straight up

21-11

66% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1166%

W W W W W W L W W W L L W L W L W W L L L W L W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W W W W W W L L W W L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2038%

U O U O O O U O O U O U O U U O U O U U U O U U U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsHCU	W 78-60	-7.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 12	@FRES	W 78-73	+1.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsIDHO	W 75-67	-5.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 142
Nov 24	vsTEM	W 91-76	+1.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 167
Nov 25	vsBRAD	W 87-77	+1.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsTOW	W 87-73	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	O 160
Dec 2	@NEV	L 70-76	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	U 146
Dec 6	@LBSU	W 80-74	-8.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 13	vsTULN	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 16	@LMU	W 67-57	-1.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 19	vsUSD	L 80-82	-12.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 162
Jan 1	@CP	L 65-67	-8.5	L −10.5	174.5	U 132
Jan 3	vsHAW	W 83-73	-2.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 8	vsCSUF	L 71-88	-13.5	L −30.5	166.5	U 159
Jan 10	@UCR	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 15	vsCSUN	L 79-84	-7.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	@CSUB	W 83-62	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 22	@UCD	W 80-74	-1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 154
Jan 24	vsUCI	L 59-61	-2.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 120
Jan 29	vsUCSB	L 48-62	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 110
Jan 31	@CSUN	L 64-81	-1.5	L −18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	vsLBSU	W 77-74	-10.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 7	@HAW	L 67-72	+6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	vsUCD	W 68-51	-5.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 119
Feb 14	vsUCR	W 72-66	-11.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 21	@UCI	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	vsCSUB	W 84-72	-14.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 156
Feb 28	vsCP	W 80-64	-7.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 144
Mar 5	@CSUF	L 71-75	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 7	@UCSB	W 64-63	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsCP	W 72-69	-4.5	L −1.5	162.5	U 141
Mar 12	vsCSUN	L 70-80	-1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

+10.5

FRES

W 78-73

+6.5

IDHO

W 75-67

+2.5

TEM

W 91-76

+16.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+11.5

TOW

W 87-73

+12.5

NEV

L 70-76

−0.5

LBSU

W 80-74

−2.5

TULN

W 93-67

+20.5

LMU

W 67-57

+8.5

USD

L 80-82

−14.5

L 65-67

−10.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−30.5

UCR

W 69-66

−7.5

CSUN

L 79-84

−12.5

CSUB

W 83-62

+12.5

UCD

W 80-74

+4.5

UCI

L 59-61

−4.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−18.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−18.5

LBSU

W 77-74

−7.5

HAW

L 67-72

+1.5

UCD

W 68-51

+11.5

UCR

W 72-66

−5.5

UCI

W 71-69

+5.5

CSUB

W 84-72

−2.5

W 80-64

+8.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−6.5

UCSB

W 64-63

+3.5

W 72-69

−1.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−11.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HCU

W 78-60

−3.5

FRES

W 78-73

+2.5

IDHO

W 75-67

−6.5

TEM

W 91-76

+18.5

BRAD

W 87-77

+18.5

TOW

W 87-73

+21.5

NEV

L 70-76

−3.5

LBSU

W 80-74

+8.5

TULN

W 93-67

+10.5

LMU

W 67-57

−26.5

USD

L 80-82

+5.5

L 65-67

−42.5

HAW

W 83-73

+7.5

CSUF

L 71-88

−7.5

UCR

W 69-66

−14.5

CSUN

L 79-84

+3.5

CSUB

W 83-62

−2.5

UCD

W 80-74

+1.5

UCI

L 59-61

−26.5

UCSB

L 48-62

−35.5

CSUN

L 64-81

−15.5

LBSU

W 77-74

+6.5

HAW

L 67-72

−10.5

UCD

W 68-51

−31.5

UCR

W 72-66

−9.5

UCI

W 71-69

−3.5

CSUB

W 84-72

+7.5

W 80-64

−20.5

CSUF

L 71-75

−10.5

UCSB

W 64-63

−14.5

W 72-69

−21.5

CSUN

L 70-80

−3.5

over 12under 20avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: CA Baptist 1, UC San Diego 1, even 3

CA BaptistBetterUC San Diego

G E. Duncan TR10.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

CBUSmall

G R. Barno TR11.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 5 ast Score 52

G J. Muller4.4 pts · 1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7

UCSDBig

G T. Beattie10.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 71

G J. Dollar1.9 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G C. Wagner TR12 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 50

F R. D'Amelio2.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Eaglestaff TR9.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77

F N. Richart TR0.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F L. Beath11.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 51

CA BaptistBetterUC San Diego

CBU offense246th of 366 · -7.5

UCSDBig

UCSD defense110th of 366 · -1.3

CBU defense178th of 366 · -4.0

Even

UCSD offense145th of 366 · -4.4

Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players

UCSDSmall

Backcourt+0.3 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCBU betterUCSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CA Baptist

Guards

E. Duncan21 min · TRJ. Muller21 minJ. Dollar5 minT. ConerNewJ. StonkusNewO. BlanksonNew

Forwards

R. D'Amelio11 minN. Richart7 min · TRA. MilenkovicNewJ. ZilinskasNewA. SafinNew

Centers

M. KovacNew

UC San Diego

Guards

R. Barno32 min · TRT. Beattie32 minC. Wagner30 min · TRT. Eaglestaff29 min · TRK. Dotson27 min · TRA. Chaikin25 min

Forwards

L. Beath30 minO. Suutela18 min · TRJ. Vance13 minC. Pendleton8 minJ. HolmesNew

Centers

D. Vukicevic7 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CBU72.7 #230

UCSD74.5 #179

Points per possession

CBU1.07 #209

UCSD1.07 #211

Pace (possessions)

CBU68.3 #217

UCSD69.7 #130

Shooting

Effective FG%

CBU48.3 #308

UCSD52.6 #124

3-point %

CBU33.4 #200

UCSD32.8 #241

3-point attempt rate

CBU32.0 #330

UCSD42.3 #131

Free throw rate

CBU35.9 #154

UCSD31.2 #277

Possessions

Turnover rate

CBU18.0 #270

UCSD16.5 #165

Offensive rebound rate

CBU37.5 #13

UCSD26.1 #320

Assists per game

CBU10.2 #355

UCSD14.9 #94

Defense

Points allowed

CBU67.6 #28

UCSD70.5 #63

Points allowed per possession

CBU0.99 #18

UCSD1.01 #35

Opponent effective FG%

CBU46.3 #16

UCSD48.4 #45

Opponent 3-point %

CBU29.5 #5

UCSD31.6 #45

Turnovers forced

CBU16.9 #159

UCSD16.8 #165

Defensive rebound rate

CBU72.8 #41

UCSD73.0 #38

Steals per game

CBU5.5 #296

UCSD7.4 #94

Blocks per game

CBU2.9 #253

UCSD2.6 #299

CBU		UCSD
Scoring
72.7 #230	Points per game	74.5 #179
1.07 #209	Points per possession	1.07 #211
68.3 #217	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #130
Shooting
48.3 #308	Effective FG%	52.6 #124
33.4 #200	3-point %	32.8 #241
32.0 #330	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #131
35.9 #154	Free throw rate	31.2 #277
Possessions
18.0 #270	Turnover rate	16.5 #165
37.5 #13	Offensive rebound rate	26.1 #320
10.2 #355	Assists per game	14.9 #94
Defense
67.6 #28	Points allowed	70.5 #63
0.99 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #35
46.3 #16	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #45
29.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #45
16.9 #159	Turnovers forced	16.8 #165
72.8 #41	Defensive rebound rate	73.0 #38
5.5 #296	Steals per game	7.4 #94
2.9 #253	Blocks per game	2.6 #299

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CA Baptist

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kansas60–68
Wvs Utah Valley63–61
Wvs Utah Tech86–72
W@ Southern Utah82–75
Wvs Abilene Chrstn87–48

A week or more of rest.

UC San Diego

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs CSU Northridge70–80
Wvs Cal Poly72–69
W@ Santa Barbara64–63
L@ Fullerton71–75
Wvs Cal Poly80–64

A week or more of rest.

California Baptist Lancers at UC San Diego Tritons

What could decide it: UCSD has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

CA Baptist

UC San Diego

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CA Baptist

UC San Diego