1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. UL @ USC
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at USC Trojans

Galen Center · at USC
#221ULLouisiana
@
#36USCUSC AP #21
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ULThis seasonUSC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USC 87–63 · win probability USC 98%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 149.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USC has more of the edges

UL 1, USC 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
USCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UL 28.7, USC 44.2. Allowed: UL 45.8, USC 33.4
USCBig
UL offense vs USC defense
Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 55th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UL has played the 226th-hardest schedule, USC the 42nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UL plays 64.1 a game (359th fastest), USC 72.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
USCBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UL 47.1 and allows 52.6; USC 50.4 and allows 49.7
USCBig
USC offense vs UL defense
Offense 27th of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings
ULSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UL 16.8%, USC 17.4%. Forced: UL 18.3%, USC 16.4%
USCSmall
Three-pointers
UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%; USC hits 31.7% and allows 30.9%. Threes are 40.5% and 34.1% of their shots
USCSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UL 28.4%, USC 32.4%. Defensive: UL 67.7%, USC 67.8%
USCSmall
Home court
USC at home. This season: USC 0-0 at home, UL 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UL 59%, USC 64%. Transfers in: UL 3, USC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USC -24.4—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—UL 62.5 · USC 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSC -14.4—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreUL 27.7 · USC 42.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

USC has the better starters

Position by position: Louisiana 0, USC 4, even 1
LouisianaBetterUSC
G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40
USCBig
G J. Cox TR18.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 96
G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1
USCBig
G J. Jones15.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49
USCBig
G R. Rice20.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 6 ast Score 97
G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Bruns TR20.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 88
F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
USCBig
F J. Cofie9.8 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 77
LouisianaBetterUSC
UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0
USCBig
USC defense55th of 366 · +1.4
UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4
USCBig
USC offense27th of 366 · +7.0
Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players
USCBig
Backcourt+15.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
USCSmall
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
USCBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUL betterUSC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Louisiana
Guards
D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew
Forwards
J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew
USC
Guards
J. Cox35 min · TRJ. Jones35 minR. Rice34 minI. Bruns32 min · TRK. Lewis30 min · TRA. Hunkin-Claytor28 min · TR
Forwards
J. Cofie31 minJ. Hughes28 min · TRA. RatliffNewC. CollinsNew
Centers
E. Reibe14 min · TRD. RatliffNewO. Joe AguNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ULUSC
Scoring
63.7 #354Points per game77.8 #97
0.99 #333Points per possession1.07 #199
64.1 #359Pace (possessions)72.4 #25
Shooting
47.1 #334Effective FG%50.4 #225
33.6 #1893-point %31.7 #299
40.5 #1603-point attempt rate34.1 #292
28.7 #334Free throw rate44.2 #8
Possessions
16.8 #185Turnover rate17.4 #228
28.4 #251Offensive rebound rate32.4 #113
10.3 #354Assists per game14.9 #92
Defense
70.7 #69Points allowed78.4 #277
1.10 #227Points allowed per possession1.08 #173
52.6 #247Opponent effective FG%49.7 #89
35.6 #286Opponent 3-point %30.9 #31
18.3 #85Turnovers forced16.4 #198
67.7 #272Defensive rebound rate67.8 #269
5.8 #257Steals per game6.2 #217
3.5 #141Blocks per game5.5 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs James Madison72–87
  • Wvs Georgia St84–75
  • L@ Arkansas St58–81
  • L@ Troy59–78
  • Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.

USC

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Washington79–83
  • Lvs UCLA68–89
  • L@ Washington72–91
  • Lvs Nebraska67–82
  • L@ UCLA62–81

A week or more of rest.