Pennsylvania Quakers at Saint Joseph's Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 6:30 PM ETMichael J. Hagan '85 Arena · at Saint Joseph's

#137PENNPenn

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Penn and Saint Joseph's
PENN	This season	JOES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JOES 76–70 · win probability JOES 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PENN 4, JOES 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PENNBig

Three-pointers

PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%; JOES hits 30.8% and allows 31.7%. Threes are 35.4% and 45.1% of their shots

PENNBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PENN 15.4%, JOES 16.8%. Forced: PENN 17.3%, JOES 15.0%

PENNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PENN 83%, JOES 40%. Transfers in: PENN 1, JOES 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

JOESSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1; JOES 49.2 and allows 47.6

JOESSmall

Home court

JOES at home. This season: JOES 0-0 at home, PENN 0-0 away

PENNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PENN 33.9, JOES 29.7. Allowed: PENN 27.5, JOES 26.9

JOESSmall

PENN offense vs JOES defense

Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 91st, on the model’s ratings

JOESSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PENN 30.0%, JOES 31.4%. Defensive: PENN 68.7%, JOES 69.4%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: PENN plays 69.3 a game (158th fastest), JOES 68.4 (208th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

PENN has played the 126th-hardest schedule, JOES the 102nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

JOES offense vs PENN defense

Offense 134th of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	JOES -5.8	—
Total	—	145.6	—
Projected score	—	PENN 69.9 · JOES 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JOES -3.3	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	PENN 32.4 · JOES 35.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PENN WWWWL	20-9	69%	9-4	—
JOES WLWWL	20-14	59%	8-6	—

Venue/role: PENN away; JOES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PENN UUUOO	8-21	28%	17-12
JOES UUUUU	11-23	32%	22-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PENN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
JOES	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Penn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ LAS	W73–71WU
Nov 24	vs DREX	W84–68WU
Nov 27	vs TOW	L74–80LO

Saint Joseph's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	vs WAG	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ DREX	W76–65WO
Nov 28	@ MONM	L75–87LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PENN 1–4 JOESJOES leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · PENN 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2025-26	JOES 74 @ PENN 83	PENN +5.5	PENN W
Nov 15, 2024-25	JOES 86 @ PENN 69	PENN +7.5	JOES W
Nov 10, 2023-24	PENN 61 @ JOES 69	JOES -6.5	JOES W
Nov 30, 2022-23	JOES 85 @ PENN 80	PENN -5.5	JOES W
Dec 8, 2021-22	PENN 71 @ JOES 78	JOES -4.5	JOES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn

29 games played

Straight up

17-12

59% wins

Against the spread

20-9

69% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-21

28% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1259%

L L W W W W L L W L L W L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-969%

L L W W W W L L L W W W W W W W L L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-2128%

O O U U U U U O U U O U O O U U U U U U U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 5	@PRIN	L 76-78	+3.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRWN	W 81-73	-5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	@DART	W 84-74	+2.5	W +12.5	163.5	U 158
Jan 19	@HARV	L 63-64	+5.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsYALE	L 60-77	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 137
Jan 30	@COLU	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 31	@COR	W 91-81	+7.5	W +17.5	173.5	U 172
Feb 7	vsPRIN	W 61-60	-3.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 121
Feb 13	vsCOLU	W 76-67	-1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsCOR	W 82-76	+2.5	W +8.5	169.5	U 158
Feb 21	@YALE	L 70-74	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 27	vsDART	W 80-71	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsHARV	W 64-61	-1.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 125
Mar 6	@BRWN	W 82-61	+1.5	W +22.5	146.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsHARV	W 62-60	+3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 122
Mar 15	vsYALE	W 88-84	+9.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 172
Mar 19	vsILL	L 70-105	+25.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+1.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+2.5

DART

W 84-74

+12.5

HARV

L 63-64

+4.5

YALE

L 60-77

−10.5

COLU

L 67-72

−0.5

COR

W 91-81

+17.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−2.5

COLU

W 76-67

+7.5

COR

W 82-76

+8.5

YALE

L 70-74

+5.5

DART

W 80-71

+2.5

HARV

W 64-61

+1.5

BRWN

W 82-61

+22.5

HARV

W 62-60

+5.5

YALE

W 88-84

+13.5

ILL

L 70-105

−9.5

covered 20didn’t cover 9avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

PRIN

L 76-78

+8.5

BRWN

W 81-73

+8.5

DART

W 84-74

−5.5

HARV

L 63-64

−23.5

YALE

L 60-77

−20.5

COLU

L 67-72

−14.5

COR

W 91-81

−1.5

PRIN

W 61-60

−23.5

COLU

W 76-67

−5.5

COR

W 82-76

−11.5

YALE

L 70-74

−6.5

DART

W 80-71

−3.5

HARV

W 64-61

−13.5

BRWN

W 82-61

−3.5

HARV

W 62-60

−17.5

YALE

W 88-84

+27.5

ILL

L 70-105

+24.5

over 8under 21avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Joseph's

34 games played

Straight up

22-12

65% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-23

32% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1265%

W W L L L W W W L W L L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L W L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2332%

O O U U O U U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLAF	W 85-76	-13.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsDREX	W 76-65	-9.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 12	@VT	L 59-94	+12.5	L −22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 17	@PENN	L 74-83	-5.5	L −14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 20	@UNLV	L 85-99	+10.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 30	vsPRIN	W 60-58	-5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 6	vsTEM	W 70-69	+1.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsCOPP	W 87-65	-22.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 11	@SYR	L 63-71	+11.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 18	vsDSU	W 67-51	-17.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 22	vsCCU	L 62-68	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 130
Dec 31	@SLU	L 79-102	+19.5	L −3.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 3	vsDAV	L 56-62	+1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	vsDUQ	W 97-90	+1.5	W +8.5	149.5	O 187
Jan 11	@RICH	W 67-65	+7.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsSBU	W 68-64	+1.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 19	@VCU	L 72-79	+14.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsDAY	W 81-74	+6.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 155
Jan 27	@LUC	W 85-64	-1.5	W +19.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 31	@LAS	W 67-58	-2.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 4	vsGW	W 76-73	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	139.5	U 112
Feb 10	vsFOR	L 64-68	-3.5	L −7.5	135.5	U 132
Feb 18	@SBU	W 71-65	+5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsLUC	W 75-61	-9.5	W +4.5	142.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsGMU	W 81-63	+1.5	W +19.5	136.5	O 144
Feb 28	@URI	W 61-55	+2.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 116
Mar 4	@DAV	W 70-67	+1.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	vsLAS	W 88-76	-11.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 164
Mar 13	vsDAV	W 70-58	-2.5	W +9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 14	vsVCU	L 64-77	+6.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 141
Mar 18	@CSU	W 69-64	+5.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 133
Mar 22	@CAL	W 76-75	+5.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 151
Mar 24	@UNM	L 69-84	+10.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

−4.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−22.5

PENN

L 74-83

−14.5

UNLV

L 85-99

−3.5

PRIN

W 60-58

−3.5

TEM

W 70-69

+2.5

COPP

W 87-65

−0.5

SYR

L 63-71

+3.5

DSU

W 67-51

−1.5

CCU

L 62-68

−13.5

SLU

L 79-102

−3.5

DAV

L 56-62

−4.5

DUQ

W 97-90

+8.5

RICH

W 67-65

+9.5

SBU

W 68-64

+5.5

VCU

L 72-79

+7.5

DAY

W 81-74

+13.5

LUC

W 85-64

+19.5

LAS

W 67-58

+6.5

W 76-73

+4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

FOR

L 64-68

−7.5

SBU

W 71-65

+11.5

LUC

W 75-61

+4.5

GMU

W 81-63

+19.5

URI

W 61-55

+8.5

DAV

W 70-67

+4.5

LAS

W 88-76

+0.5

DAV

W 70-58

+9.5

VCU

L 64-77

−6.5

CSU

W 69-64

+10.5

CAL

W 76-75

+6.5

UNM

L 69-84

−4.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

+22.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−5.5

PENN

L 74-83

−6.5

UNLV

L 85-99

+22.5

PRIN

W 60-58

−28.5

TEM

W 70-69

−8.5

COPP

W 87-65

+5.5

SYR

L 63-71

−12.5

DSU

W 67-51

−19.5

CCU

L 62-68

−14.5

SLU

L 79-102

+19.5

DAV

L 56-62

−21.5

DUQ

W 97-90

+37.5

RICH

W 67-65

−18.5

SBU

W 68-64

−15.5

VCU

L 72-79

−0.5

DAY

W 81-74

+15.5

LUC

W 85-64

+5.5

LAS

W 67-58

−17.5

W 76-73

−6.5

GMU

L 52-60

−27.5

FOR

L 64-68

−3.5

SBU

W 71-65

−11.5

LUC

W 75-61

−6.5

GMU

W 81-63

+7.5

URI

W 61-55

−25.5

DAV

W 70-67

+0.5

LAS

W 88-76

+21.5

DAV

W 70-58

−5.5

VCU

L 64-77

−4.5

CSU

W 69-64

−11.5

CAL

W 76-75

−1.5

UNM

L 69-84

−2.5

over 11under 23avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Joseph's has the better starters

Position by position: Penn 2, Saint Joseph's 3, even 0

PennBetterSaint Joseph's

G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

JOESSmall

G J. Glover-Toscano15.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 80

G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61

PENNSmall

G A. Williford7.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 46

F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81

PENNSmall

G L. Carey TR9.1 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 60

F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36

JOESSmall

G K. Myers4.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 59

F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

JOESBig

F S. Logan TR3.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

PennBetterSaint Joseph's

PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1

Even

JOES defense91st of 366 · -0.3

PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1

Even

JOES offense134th of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players

JOESSmall

Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.0 · 1 player

Bench-1.5 · 5 players

JOESSmall

Bench-0.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPENN betterJOES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Penn

Guards

M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min

Forwards

T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew

Centers

M. PereiraNew

Saint Joseph's

Guards

J. Glover-Toscano32 minA. Williford26 minL. Carey26 min · TRK. Myers15 minM. Johnson4 minB. Rayer1 min

Forwards

S. Logan16 min · TRW. Lange1 minG. MarrsNewL. NonfonNewD. FlamerNewK. SaccoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PENN74.4 #181

JOES71.9 #245

Points per possession

PENN1.08 #196

JOES1.05 #244

Pace (possessions)

PENN69.3 #158

JOES68.4 #208

Shooting

Effective FG%

PENN50.4 #223

JOES49.2 #284

3-point %

PENN38.3 #13

JOES30.8 #325

3-point attempt rate

PENN35.4 #264

JOES45.1 #65

Free throw rate

PENN33.9 #212

JOES29.7 #318

Possessions

Turnover rate

PENN15.4 #93

JOES16.8 #187

Offensive rebound rate

PENN30.0 #200

JOES31.4 #147

Assists per game

PENN13.7 #171

JOES15.1 #84

Defense

Points allowed

PENN74.5 #173

JOES70.6 #68

Points allowed per possession

PENN1.07 #137

JOES1.03 #59

Opponent effective FG%

PENN52.1 #218

JOES47.6 #34

Opponent 3-point %

PENN32.2 #73

JOES31.7 #51

Turnovers forced

PENN17.3 #132

JOES15.0 #286

Defensive rebound rate

PENN68.7 #220

JOES69.4 #185

Steals per game

PENN6.5 #184

JOES5.5 #290

Blocks per game

PENN3.1 #199

JOES4.6 #30

PENN		JOES
Scoring
74.4 #181	Points per game	71.9 #245
1.08 #196	Points per possession	1.05 #244
69.3 #158	Pace (possessions)	68.4 #208
Shooting
50.4 #223	Effective FG%	49.2 #284
38.3 #13	3-point %	30.8 #325
35.4 #264	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #65
33.9 #212	Free throw rate	29.7 #318
Possessions
15.4 #93	Turnover rate	16.8 #187
30.0 #200	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #147
13.7 #171	Assists per game	15.1 #84
Defense
74.5 #173	Points allowed	70.6 #68
1.07 #137	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #59
52.1 #218	Opponent effective FG%	47.6 #34
32.2 #73	Opponent 3-point %	31.7 #51
17.3 #132	Turnovers forced	15.0 #286
68.7 #220	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #185
6.5 #184	Steals per game	5.5 #290
3.1 #199	Blocks per game	4.6 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Illinois70–105
Wvs Yale88–84
Wvs Harvard62–60
W@ Brown82–61
Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Saint Joseph's

22-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico69–84
W@ California76–75
W@ Colorado St69–64
Lvs VCU64–77
Wvs Davidson70–58

A week or more of rest.

Pennsylvania Quakers at Saint Joseph's Hawks

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn

Saint Joseph's

Saint Joseph's has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Penn

Saint Joseph's