1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. COLO @ PROV
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Colorado Buffaloes at Providence Friars

Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence
#65COLOColorado
@
#52PROVProvidence
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COLOThis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 83–79 · win probability PROV 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 161.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

COLO 2, PROV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLOSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COLO 14.7%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: COLO 15.2%, PROV 13.1%
PROVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: COLO 52.9 and allows 52.6; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
PROVSmall
Three-pointers
COLO hits 35.1% and allows 36.3%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 35.2% and 40.5% of their shots
PROVSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: COLO 36.6, PROV 36.7. Allowed: COLO 36.6, PROV 32.7
PROVSmall
Home court
PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, COLO 0-0 away
COLOSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COLO 40%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: COLO 4, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
PROVSmall
PROV offense vs COLO defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 80th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: COLO plays 71.0 a game (76th fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
COLO has played the 58th-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
COLO offense vs PROV defense
Offense 54th of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COLO 29.0%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: COLO 70.4%, PROV 69.2%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PROV -4.6—
Total—161.7—
Projected score—COLO 78.6 · PROV 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -2.6—
1H total75.5—
1H projected scoreCOLO 36.5 · PROV 39.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Colorado 2, Providence 2, even 1
ColoradoBetterProvidence
G B. Hargress14.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.5 ast Score 93
COLOSmall
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
F J. Neely TR17.7 pts · 11.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 96
COLOSmall
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
F I. Niagu TR4.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
PROVBig
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F D. Gomez TR5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
C N. Feddersen TR9 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 59
PROVSmall
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
ColoradoBetterProvidence
COLO offense54th of 366 · +3.2
Even
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
COLO defense80th of 366 · +0.3
Even
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt+3.6 · 1 player
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
Frontcourt+5.3 · 4 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.7 · 4 players
PROVBig
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestCOLO betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Colorado
Guards
B. Hargress33 minJ. Sanders18 minJ. Holland18 minI. Inman10 minA. JonesNewR. PortelaNew
Forwards
J. Neely33 min · TRI. Niagu21 min · TRD. Gomez20 min · TRN. Randall1 minG. MalualNewC. HillNew
Centers
N. Feddersen21 min · TRE. JacobsenNew
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COLOPROV
Scoring
80.2 #63Points per game85.3 #15
1.13 #80Points per possession1.15 #58
71.0 #76Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
52.9 #108Effective FG%55.0 #37
35.1 #1043-point %36.4 #45
35.2 #2673-point attempt rate40.5 #157
36.6 #139Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
14.7 #46Turnover rate16.7 #174
29.0 #235Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
15.4 #67Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
79.8 #313Points allowed84.0 #356
1.12 #272Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
52.6 #243Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
36.3 #319Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
15.2 #267Turnovers forced13.1 #352
70.4 #144Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
6.3 #196Steals per game5.4 #313
3.3 #170Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colorado

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Oklahoma86–90
  • Lvs Oklahoma St83–92
  • Lvs Arizona79–89
  • W@ Utah92–78
  • L@ Houston62–102

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.