Sacred Heart Pioneers at Providence Friars: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETAmica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Sacred Heart and Providence
SHU	This season	PROV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 93–66 · win probability PROV 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

SHU 0, PROV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SHU has played the 340th-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less

PROVBig

PROV offense vs SHU defense

Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 334th, on the model’s ratings

PROVBig

SHU offense vs PROV defense

Offense 281st of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings

PROVSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SHU 52.0 and allows 53.5; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: SHU plays 68.6 a game (201st fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points

PROVSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SHU 28.6%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: SHU 69.1%, PROV 69.2%

PROVSmall

Home court

PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, SHU 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SHU 17.6%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: SHU 14.6%, PROV 13.1%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SHU 31.0, PROV 36.7. Allowed: SHU 27.0, PROV 32.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SHU 18%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: SHU 3, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

SHU hits 35.7% and allows 34.9%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 50.7% and 40.5% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PROV -27.0	—
Total	—	158.7	—
Projected score	—	SHU 65.8 · PROV 92.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PROV -15.9	—
1H total	74.1	—
1H projected score	SHU 29.1 · PROV 45	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHU LWWWL	15-17	47%	8-10	—
PROV WLWWL	19-14	58%	9-7	—

Venue/role: SHU away; PROV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHU UUUOU	15-17	47%	13-19
PROV UUOOU	22-11	67%	15-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PROV	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Sacred Heart

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ RUTG	L50–88LU
Nov 29	vs NJIT	W65–49WU
Dec 4	@ MRST	L63–65WU

Providence

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs VCU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs STO	W76–49WU
Dec 5	@ URI	W90–71WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SHU 0–2 PROVPROV leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · PROV has won the last 2 meetings · SHU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2023-24	SHU 64 @ PROV 78	PROV -19.5	SHU W
Nov 11, 2021-22	SHU 64 @ PROV 92	PROV -16.5	PROV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacred Heart

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L W L L W L W L W L L L L L L W W W W W L L L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L W W L W L W L W L L L L W L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O U U U O U O U U O U U O U O O U O O U O O U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DUQ	L 80-92	+12.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	@VILL	L 60-94	+19.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	@QUC	L 64-81	+5.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsHC	W 79-66	-7.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	@CCSU	L 106-108	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 214
Nov 29	@PSU	L 59-90	+14.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 3	@MSM	W 87-80	-1.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 7	vsIONA	L 69-81	-1.5	L −13.5	163.5	U 150
Dec 13	@NJIT	W 65-49	-6.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 114
Dec 16	@UML	L 82-87	-2.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 169
Dec 19	vsDART	W 85-63	+1.5	W +23.5	155.5	U 148
Dec 22	@TOW	L 47-72	+13.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 119
Dec 29	vsMRMK	L 72-80	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	@NIA	L 61-64	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 4	@CAN	L 78-82	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	vsMRST	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 148
Jan 11	vsQUIN	L 60-70	+5.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Jan 14	@SIE	W 86-80	+8.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 166
Jan 19	@RID	W 105-85	-4.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 190
Jan 22	vsCAN	W 69-66	-10.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 24	vsNIA	W 71-70	-9.5	L −8.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 30	@QUIN	W 98-91	+8.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 189
Feb 1	@MRMK	L 58-75	+5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	vsFAIR	L 87-92	-1.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 179
Feb 7	@MAN	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	161.5	U 148
Feb 13	vsSPU	W 78-71	+1.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Feb 15	vsRID	W 86-75	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 20	@FAIR	L 68-78	+4.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 22	@MRST	L 63-65	+7.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 27	vsMSM	W 77-69	-2.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 5	vsIONA	W 91-80	+3.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 171
Mar 6	vsMRMK	L 48-70	+6.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+0.5

VILL

L 60-94

−14.5

QUC

L 64-81

−11.5

W 79-66

+5.5

CCSU

L 106-108

+1.5

PSU

L 59-90

−16.5

MSM

W 87-80

+5.5

IONA

L 69-81

−13.5

NJIT

W 65-49

+9.5

UML

L 82-87

−7.5

DART

W 85-63

+23.5

TOW

L 47-72

−11.5

MRMK

L 72-80

−9.5

NIA

L 61-64

−4.5

CAN

L 78-82

−9.5

MRST

L 72-76

+1.5

QUIN

L 60-70

−4.5

SIE

W 86-80

+14.5

RID

W 105-85

+15.5

CAN

W 69-66

−7.5

NIA

W 71-70

−8.5

QUIN

W 98-91

+15.5

MRMK

L 58-75

−11.5

FAIR

L 87-92

−6.5

MAN

L 68-80

−13.5

SPU

W 78-71

+8.5

RID

W 86-75

+1.5

FAIR

L 68-78

−5.5

MRST

L 63-65

+5.5

MSM

W 77-69

+5.5

IONA

W 91-80

+14.5

MRMK

L 48-70

−15.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+14.5

VILL

L 60-94

−6.5

QUC

L 64-81

−20.5

W 79-66

−7.5

CCSU

L 106-108

+70.5

PSU

L 59-90

−11.5

MSM

W 87-80

+14.5

IONA

L 69-81

−13.5

NJIT

W 65-49

−37.5

UML

L 82-87

+17.5

DART

W 85-63

−7.5

TOW

L 47-72

−26.5

MRMK

L 72-80

+7.5

NIA

L 61-64

−14.5

CAN

L 78-82

+18.5

MRST

L 72-76

+4.5

QUIN

L 60-70

−22.5

SIE

W 86-80

+26.5

RID

W 105-85

+45.5

CAN

W 69-66

−10.5

NIA

W 71-70

+1.5

QUIN

W 98-91

+32.5

MRMK

L 58-75

−14.5

FAIR

L 87-92

+23.5

MAN

L 68-80

−13.5

SPU

W 78-71

+1.5

RID

W 86-75

+14.5

FAIR

L 68-78

−12.5

MRST

L 63-65

−18.5

MSM

W 77-69

−4.5

IONA

W 91-80

+21.5

MRMK

L 48-70

−25.5

over 15under 17avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Providence

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-11

67% overs · avg +8.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W L W L W W L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1458%

L L W L W W L W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L W W L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1167%

O O O O O U O U U O O O U U O O O O O U O O O O O U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHC	W 89-79	-23.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsVT	L 101-107	-2.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 11	vsPENN	W 106-81	-19.5	W +5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 14	@COLO	L 88-97	+1.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 18	vsUNH	W 98-66	-29.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPSU	W 77-65	-3.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 27	vsWIS	L 83-104	+6.5	L −14.5	166.5	O 187
Nov 28	vsFLA	L 78-90	+12.5	W +0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	vsFDU	W 94-64	-26.5	W +3.5	162.5	U 158
Dec 6	vsURI	W 90-71	-7.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 161
Dec 9	vsBRWN	W 86-79	-19.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 165
Dec 13	@BTLR	L 110-113	+3.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 223
Dec 19	vsHALL	L 67-72	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 3	@SJU	W 77-71	+14.5	W +20.5	166.5	U 148
Jan 7	vsCONN	L 98-103	+9.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 10	@XAV	L 84-97	-1.5	L −14.5	165.5	O 181
Jan 13	vsVILL	L 82-88	+2.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 170
Jan 16	vsCREI	W 93-88	+2.5	W +7.5	161.5	O 181
Jan 19	@MARQ	L 104-105	+2.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 209
Jan 24	vsGTWN	L 78-81	-5.5	L −8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 27	@CONN	L 81-87	+15.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 30	@VILL	L 73-87	+8.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 160
Feb 4	vsBTLR	W 97-87	-2.5	W +7.5	168.5	O 184
Feb 7	vsDEP	W 90-72	-4.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 11	@HALL	L 80-87	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 167
Feb 14	vsSJU	L 69-79	+6.5	L −3.5	167.5	U 148
Feb 21	@DEP	W 71-68	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 25	vsXAV	W 94-84	-5.5	W +4.5	170.5	O 178
Feb 28	@CREI	W 79-76	+3.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 155
Mar 4	vsMARQ	L 56-78	-3.5	L −25.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 7	@GTWN	L 79-80	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Mar 11	vsBTLR	W 91-81	-1.5	W +8.5	162.5	O 172
Mar 12	@SJU	L 72-85	+11.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 89-79

−13.5

L 101-107

−8.5

PENN

W 106-81

+5.5

COLO

L 88-97

−7.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

+8.5

WIS

L 83-104

−14.5

FLA

L 78-90

+0.5

FDU

W 94-64

+3.5

URI

W 90-71

+11.5

BRWN

W 86-79

−12.5

BTLR

L 110-113

+0.5

HALL

L 67-72

−6.5

SJU

W 77-71

+20.5

CONN

L 98-103

+4.5

XAV

L 84-97

−14.5

VILL

L 82-88

−3.5

CREI

W 93-88

+7.5

MARQ

L 104-105

+1.5

GTWN

L 78-81

−8.5

CONN

L 81-87

+9.5

VILL

L 73-87

−5.5

BTLR

W 97-87

+7.5

DEP

W 90-72

+13.5

HALL

L 80-87

−2.5

SJU

L 69-79

−3.5

DEP

W 71-68

+5.5

XAV

W 94-84

+4.5

CREI

W 79-76

+6.5

MARQ

L 56-78

−25.5

GTWN

L 79-80

+0.5

BTLR

W 91-81

+8.5

SJU

L 72-85

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 89-79

+15.5

L 101-107

+50.5

PENN

W 106-81

+14.5

COLO

L 88-97

+21.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

−23.5

WIS

L 83-104

+20.5

FLA

L 78-90

−1.5

FDU

W 94-64

−4.5

URI

W 90-71

+1.5

BRWN

W 86-79

+19.5

BTLR

L 110-113

+58.5

HALL

L 67-72

−13.5

SJU

W 77-71

−18.5

CONN

L 98-103

+48.5

XAV

L 84-97

+15.5

VILL

L 82-88

+13.5

CREI

W 93-88

+19.5

MARQ

L 104-105

+41.5

GTWN

L 78-81

−0.5

CONN

L 81-87

+15.5

VILL

L 73-87

+2.5

BTLR

W 97-87

+15.5

DEP

W 90-72

+8.5

HALL

L 80-87

+16.5

SJU

L 69-79

−19.5

DEP

W 71-68

−13.5

XAV

W 94-84

+7.5

CREI

W 79-76

−11.5

MARQ

L 56-78

−27.5

GTWN

L 79-80

+0.5

BTLR

W 91-81

+9.5

SJU

L 72-85

−1.5

over 22under 11avg +8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Sacred Heart 0, Providence 5, even 0

Sacred HeartBetterProvidence

G J. Van Buggenhout TR6.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.1 ast Score 42

PROVSmall

G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

G J. Slaughter5.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

PROVBig

G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80

G S. Reilly TR3.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 47

PROVBig

G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89

F A. Yadd6 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5

PROVBig

G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90

F J. Robinson TR2.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 26

PROVBig

G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81

Sacred HeartBetterProvidence

SHU offense281st of 366 · -8.7

PROVBig

PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3

SHU defense334th of 366 · -8.8

PROVBig

PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

PROVBig

Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

PROVBig

Bench+4.2 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestSHU betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Sacred Heart

Guards

J. Van Buggenhout21 min · TRJ. Slaughter21 minS. Reilly9 min · TRM. Sheppard1 minG. BarroukNewJ. WallaceNew

Forwards

A. Yadd15 minJ. Robinson10 min · TRK. CurtisNewL. KrygierNew

Providence

Guards

R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR

Forwards

A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew

Centers

S. Aletan26 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SHU74.3 #186

PROV85.3 #15

Points per possession

SHU1.08 #180

PROV1.15 #58

Pace (possessions)

SHU68.6 #201

PROV74.2 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

SHU52.0 #145

PROV55.0 #37

3-point %

SHU35.7 #73

PROV36.4 #45

3-point attempt rate

SHU50.7 #12

PROV40.5 #157

Free throw rate

SHU31.0 #281

PROV36.7 #138

Possessions

Turnover rate

SHU17.6 #249

PROV16.7 #174

Offensive rebound rate

SHU28.6 #246

PROV31.7 #135

Assists per game

SHU14.6 #112

PROV14.0 #146

Defense

Points allowed

SHU77.6 #253

PROV84.0 #356

Points allowed per possession

SHU1.13 #296

PROV1.13 #292

Opponent effective FG%

SHU53.5 #283

PROV51.4 #179

Opponent 3-point %

SHU34.9 #241

PROV35.3 #265

Turnovers forced

SHU14.6 #320

PROV13.1 #352

Defensive rebound rate

SHU69.1 #199

PROV69.2 #195

Steals per game

SHU5.4 #305

PROV5.4 #313

Blocks per game

SHU3.0 #223

PROV3.9 #86

SHU		PROV
Scoring
74.3 #186	Points per game	85.3 #15
1.08 #180	Points per possession	1.15 #58
68.6 #201	Pace (possessions)	74.2 #10
Shooting
52.0 #145	Effective FG%	55.0 #37
35.7 #73	3-point %	36.4 #45
50.7 #12	3-point attempt rate	40.5 #157
31.0 #281	Free throw rate	36.7 #138
Possessions
17.6 #249	Turnover rate	16.7 #174
28.6 #246	Offensive rebound rate	31.7 #135
14.6 #112	Assists per game	14.0 #146
Defense
77.6 #253	Points allowed	84.0 #356
1.13 #296	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #292
53.5 #283	Opponent effective FG%	51.4 #179
34.9 #241	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #265
14.6 #320	Turnovers forced	13.1 #352
69.1 #199	Defensive rebound rate	69.2 #195
5.4 #305	Steals per game	5.4 #313
3.0 #223	Blocks per game	3.9 #86

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sacred Heart

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-12 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Merrimack48–70
Wvs Iona91–80
Wvs Mount St Marys77–69
L@ Marist63–65
L@ Fairfield68–78

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ St John's72–85
Wvs Butler91–81
L@ Georgetown79–80
Lvs Marquette56–78
W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at Providence Friars

What could decide it: PROV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacred Heart

Providence

Providence has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Sacred Heart

Providence