1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. WCU @ BTLR
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Western Carolina Catamounts at Butler Bulldogs

Hinkle Fieldhouse · at Butler
#215WCUW Carolina
@
#72BTLRButler
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WCUThis seasonBTLR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BTLR 87–70 · win probability BTLR 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BTLR has more of the edges

WCU 1, BTLR 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BTLRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: WCU 31.3, BTLR 42.1. Allowed: WCU 37.8, BTLR 24.9
BTLRBig
BTLR offense vs WCU defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WCU has played the 177th-hardest schedule, BTLR the 56th. A record against a soft schedule means less
WCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WCU 35.4%, BTLR 34.5%. Defensive: WCU 73.7%, BTLR 70.0%
BTLRSmall
Three-pointers
WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%; BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 40.9% and 35.0% of their shots
BTLRSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9; BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9
BTLRSmall
WCU offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
BTLRSmall
Home court
BTLR at home. This season: BTLR 0-0 at home, WCU 0-0 away
BTLRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WCU 16.7%, BTLR 15.9%. Forced: WCU 14.6%, BTLR 15.1%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: WCU plays 69.3 a game (162nd fastest), BTLR 71.1 (69th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WCU 16%, BTLR 22%. Transfers in: WCU 6, BTLR 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BTLR -17.0—
Total—156.7—
Projected score—WCU 69.8 · BTLR 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBTLR -10.0—
1H total73.2—
1H projected scoreWCU 31.6 · BTLR 41.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Butler has the better starters

Position by position: W Carolina 1, Butler 2, even 2
W CarolinaBetterButler
G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48
BTLRSmall
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64
No call
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70
WCUSmall
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20
BTLRBig
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
Even
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
W CarolinaBetterButler
WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2
BTLRSmall
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7
BTLRBig
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players
BTLRBig
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
BTLRSmall
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
BTLRSmall
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWCU betterBTLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
W Carolina
Guards
M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min
Forwards
S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WCUBTLR
Scoring
76.3 #134Points per game79.4 #75
1.10 #140Points per possession1.12 #106
69.3 #162Pace (possessions)71.1 #69
Shooting
50.5 #218Effective FG%50.9 #199
33.5 #1983-point %32.7 #242
40.9 #1473-point attempt rate35.0 #276
31.3 #274Free throw rate42.1 #29
Possessions
16.7 #179Turnover rate15.9 #131
35.4 #36Offensive rebound rate34.5 #58
12.0 #286Assists per game15.5 #64
Defense
79.0 #299Points allowed77.5 #252
1.14 #307Points allowed per possession1.09 #195
54.9 #327Opponent effective FG%51.9 #208
36.7 #337Opponent 3-point %33.3 #142
14.6 #318Turnovers forced15.1 #272
73.7 #22Defensive rebound rate70.0 #163
5.8 #266Steals per game6.5 #178
2.4 #315Blocks per game3.2 #191
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs ETSU67–69
  • Wvs Mercer77–73
  • Wvs Furman86–67
  • Wvs Mercer78–74
  • W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.