1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. ARK vs IU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Indiana Hoosiers

Madison Square Garden · Neutral site
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
vs
#38IUIndiana
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ARKThis seasonIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 84–79 · win probability ARK 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 162.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

ARK 4, IU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: ARK plays 73.8 a game (12th fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points
ARKSmall
Three-pointers
ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 33.0% and 50.5% of their shots
ARKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARK 35.9, IU 35.0. Allowed: ARK 31.2, IU 37.0
IUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0
ARKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARK 12.2%, IU 15.1%. Forced: ARK 15.5%, IU 15.1%
ARKSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARK 32.0%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: ARK 69.1%, IU 70.8%
Context
Schedule so far
ARK has played the 8th-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
ARK offense vs IU defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
IU offense vs ARK defense
Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARK 19%, IU 19%. Transfers in: ARK 2, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -5.0—
Total—162.3—
Projected score—ARK 83.6 · IU 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -3.1—
1H total75.8—
1H projected scoreARK 39.5 · IU 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: Arkansas 1, Indiana 0, even 4
ArkansasBetterIndiana
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
Even
G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
ARKSmall
G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
Even
F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64
ArkansasBetterIndiana
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Even
IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
Even
IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
IUSmall
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench+0.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestARK betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
Indiana
Guards
M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min
Forwards
A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew
Centers
S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARKIU
Scoring
90.2 #2Points per game78.2 #93
1.23 #3Points per possession1.16 #46
73.8 #12Pace (possessions)67.4 #260
Shooting
56.4 #16Effective FG%56.1 #22
38.2 #163-point %34.7 #138
33.0 #3153-point attempt rate50.5 #14
35.9 #155Free throw rate35.0 #179
Possessions
12.2 #1Turnover rate15.1 #71
32.0 #121Offensive rebound rate26.9 #300
17.2 #20Assists per game16.6 #34
Defense
81.0 #333Points allowed72.2 #109
1.09 #213Points allowed per possession1.07 #131
51.8 #201Opponent effective FG%49.0 #68
31.8 #54Opponent 3-point %33.1 #128
15.5 #246Turnovers forced15.1 #284
69.1 #197Defensive rebound rate70.8 #122
7.3 #96Steals per game4.7 #348
5.2 #12Blocks per game2.7 #278
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern61–74
  • L@ Ohio State78–91
  • Wvs Minnesota77–47
  • Lvs Michigan St64–77
  • Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.