1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. BTLR vs NEB
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

Butler Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Credit Union 1 Arena · Neutral site
#72BTLRButler
vs
#27NEBNebraska
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BTLRThis seasonNEB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 81–72 · win probability NEB 80%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

BTLR 2, NEB 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NEBBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9; NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1
BTLRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: BTLR 42.1, NEB 26.2. Allowed: BTLR 24.9, NEB 25.1
NEBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BTLR 15.9%, NEB 14.5%. Forced: BTLR 15.1%, NEB 18.9%
NEBBig
Three-pointers
BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%; NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 35.0% and 51.1% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BTLR plays 71.1 a game (69th fastest), NEB 67.3 (267th). Faster games mean more points
BTLRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BTLR 34.5%, NEB 26.7%. Defensive: BTLR 70.0%, NEB 72.6%
NEBSmall
NEB offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
NEBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BTLR 22%, NEB 48%. Transfers in: BTLR 5, NEB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
BTLR offense vs NEB defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Schedule so far
BTLR has played the 56th-hardest schedule, NEB the 59th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NEB -9.4—
Total—153.1—
Projected score—BTLR 71.8 · NEB 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNEB -5.5—
1H total71.5—
1H projected scoreBTLR 33 · NEB 38.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Butler 0, Nebraska 3, even 2
ButlerBetterNebraska
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
NEBSmall
G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
NEBSmall
F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
Even
F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
NEBSmall
F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93
ButlerBetterNebraska
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Even
NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
NEBSmall
NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
NEBBig
Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
Even
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestBTLR betterNEB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
Nebraska
Guards
T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew
Forwards
P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BTLRNEB
Scoring
79.4 #75Points per game77.0 #116
1.12 #106Points per possession1.15 #61
71.1 #69Pace (possessions)67.3 #267
Shooting
50.9 #199Effective FG%55.5 #28
32.7 #2423-point %35.5 #91
35.0 #2763-point attempt rate51.1 #9
42.1 #29Free throw rate26.2 #356
Possessions
15.9 #131Turnover rate14.5 #44
34.5 #58Offensive rebound rate26.7 #306
15.5 #64Assists per game18.0 #10
Defense
77.5 #252Points allowed66.1 #14
1.09 #195Points allowed per possession0.98 #13
51.9 #208Opponent effective FG%48.1 #40
33.3 #142Opponent 3-point %30.5 #19
15.1 #272Turnovers forced18.9 #54
70.0 #163Defensive rebound rate72.6 #47
6.5 #178Steals per game7.1 #112
3.2 #191Blocks per game2.5 #303
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa71–77
  • Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
  • Wvs Troy76–47
  • Lvs Purdue58–74
  • Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.