George Washington Revolutionaries vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: G Washington and Western KY
GW	This season	WKU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 78–74 · win probability GW 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

GW 4, WKU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

WKUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GW 18.1%, WKU 14.5%. Forced: GW 17.8%, WKU 17.2%

GWSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GW 54.4 and allows 52.4; WKU 47.5 and allows 51.2

GWSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GW 35.8%, WKU 31.8%. Defensive: GW 71.3%, WKU 70.5%

Context

Schedule so far

GW has played the 95th-hardest schedule, WKU the 160th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GWSmall

Three-pointers

GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%; WKU hits 33.4% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 47.0% and 39.5% of their shots

GWSmall

GW offense vs WKU defense

Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 169th, on the model’s ratings

WKUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GW 13%, WKU 44%. Transfers in: GW 9, WKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: GW plays 70.2 a game (107th fastest), WKU 71.5 (52nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

WKU offense vs GW defense

Offense 115th of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GW 34.9, WKU 41.2. Allowed: GW 35.0, WKU 46.8

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GW -3.7	—
Total	—	151.6	—
Projected score	—	GW 77.7 · WKU 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -2.3	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	GW 36.6 · WKU 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GW LLLWL	15-19	44%	3-4	—
WKU WWLLL	15-15	50%	3-1	—

Venue/role: GW neutral site; WKU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GW UUOOU	16-18	47%	18-16
WKU OOOUO	15-15	50%	16-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GW	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

G Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs UMBC	W89–52WU
Dec 1	vs SELA	No recent meeting
Dec 5	vs LIU	No recent meeting

Western KY

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ ILL	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs BEL	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ EVAN	W80–79LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

G Washington

34 games played

Straight up

18-16

53% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1653%

W W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L W W W W L W L L L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U O O O U O O O U O U U O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 31	@RICH	W 99-85	-2.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 3	vsLAS	W 77-55	-16.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 6	@DAY	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsLUC	W 101-66	-14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsDAV	L 79-84	-9.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 19	@GMU	L 64-69	+1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsRICH	W 85-69	-10.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@SLU	L 76-79	+10.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsFOR	L 65-79	-11.5	L −25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 4	@JOES	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@DUQ	L 86-88	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 10	vsURI	W 75-70	-5.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 13	vsGMU	W 72-53	-3.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 17	@VCU	L 75-89	+6.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 24	@LAS	W 104-77	-8.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 181
Feb 27	vsDAY	L 66-68	-2.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsSBU	W 91-82	-7.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	@LUC	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsFOR	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsSLU	L 81-88	+6.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 18	@UVU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 157
Mar 22	@UNM	L 61-86	+6.5	L −18.5	161.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

RICH

W 99-85

+11.5

LAS

W 77-55

+5.5

DAY

L 72-79

−4.5

LUC

W 101-66

+20.5

DAV

L 79-84

−14.5

GMU

L 64-69

−3.5

RICH

W 85-69

+5.5

SLU

L 76-79

+7.5

FOR

L 65-79

−25.5

JOES

L 73-76

−4.5

DUQ

L 86-88

−3.5

URI

W 75-70

−0.5

GMU

W 72-53

+15.5

VCU

L 75-89

−7.5

LAS

W 104-77

+18.5

DAY

L 66-68

−4.5

SBU

W 91-82

+1.5

LUC

L 62-68

−15.5

FOR

W 66-62

−3.5

SLU

L 81-88

−0.5

UVU

W 79-78

+2.5

UNM

L 61-86

−18.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

RICH

W 99-85

+21.5

LAS

W 77-55

−18.5

DAY

L 72-79

−3.5

LUC

W 101-66

+12.5

DAV

L 79-84

+12.5

GMU

L 64-69

−20.5

RICH

W 85-69

−5.5

SLU

L 76-79

−12.5

FOR

L 65-79

−6.5

JOES

L 73-76

−6.5

DUQ

L 86-88

+15.5

URI

W 75-70

−6.5

GMU

W 72-53

−24.5

VCU

L 75-89

+2.5

LAS

W 104-77

+34.5

DAY

L 66-68

−18.5

SBU

W 91-82

+15.5

LUC

L 62-68

−18.5

FOR

W 66-62

−16.5

SLU

L 81-88

+10.5

UVU

W 79-78

+4.5

UNM

L 61-86

−14.5

over 16under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Western KY

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

W W W L L W W L L L W W L W W L L L L W L W W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1550%

L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U O U O U O O O U U U O U U U U U U U O O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTNTC	W 82-70	-14.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 10	@EKU	W 87-79	-1.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 16	vsTNST	W 95-82	-12.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsVAN	L 78-83	+18.5	W +13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsUSF	L 91-97	+7.5	W +1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsWICH	W 75-70	+4.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	vsEVAN	W 80-79	-11.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 10	@MRSH	L 61-77	+1.5	L −14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsTLSA	L 81-82	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 163
Dec 29	@JXST	L 67-78	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	vsSHSU	W 102-91	-5.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 193
Jan 4	vsLT	W 66-61	-9.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	@NMSU	L 64-80	+2.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	@UTEP	W 68-56	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 124
Jan 14	vsMOST	W 87-72	-6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	vsKENN	L 65-81	-7.5	L −23.5	165.5	U 146
Jan 21	vsLIB	L 69-76	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Jan 24	@SHSU	L 58-73	+5.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 131
Jan 28	@KENN	L 69-72	+4.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 141
Jan 31	@MTSU	W 65-60	+6.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Feb 5	vsJXST	L 66-71	-4.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsFIU	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 150
Feb 14	vsMTSU	W 82-80	-3.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 18	@DEL	W 88-87	-4.5	L −3.5	139.5	O 175
Feb 21	@LIB	W 94-73	+7.5	W +28.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 26	vsNMSU	W 93-70	-4.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	vsUTEP	W 97-65	-9.5	W +22.5	145.5	O 162
Mar 5	@MOST	L 74-87	-1.5	L −14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	@FIU	L 67-92	-1.5	L −26.5	160.5	U 159
Mar 12	vsKENN	L 87-96	-1.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−2.5

EKU

W 87-79

+6.5

TNST

W 95-82

+0.5

VAN

L 78-83

+13.5

USF

L 91-97

+1.5

WICH

W 75-70

+9.5

EVAN

W 80-79

−10.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−14.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+1.5

JXST

L 67-78

−13.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+5.5

W 66-61

−4.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−13.5

UTEP

W 68-56

+8.5

MOST

W 87-72

+8.5

KENN

L 65-81

−23.5

LIB

L 69-76

−5.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−9.5

KENN

L 69-72

+1.5

MTSU

W 65-60

+11.5

JXST

L 66-71

−9.5

FIU

W 80-70

+5.5

MTSU

W 82-80

−1.5

DEL

W 88-87

−3.5

LIB

W 94-73

+28.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+18.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+22.5

MOST

L 74-87

−14.5

FIU

L 67-92

−26.5

KENN

L 87-96

−10.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TNTC

W 82-70

−1.5

EKU

W 87-79

+3.5

TNST

W 95-82

+9.5

VAN

L 78-83

−7.5

USF

L 91-97

+20.5

WICH

W 75-70

−10.5

EVAN

W 80-79

+11.5

MRSH

L 61-77

−21.5

TLSA

L 81-82

+4.5

JXST

L 67-78

+2.5

SHSU

W 102-91

+24.5

W 66-61

−18.5

NMSU

L 64-80

−10.5

UTEP

W 68-56

−20.5

MOST

W 87-72

+10.5

KENN

L 65-81

−19.5

LIB

L 69-76

−3.5

SHSU

L 58-73

−25.5

KENN

L 69-72

−19.5

MTSU

W 65-60

−15.5

JXST

L 66-71

−3.5

FIU

W 80-70

−9.5

MTSU

W 82-80

+16.5

DEL

W 88-87

+35.5

LIB

W 94-73

+19.5

NMSU

W 93-70

+11.5

UTEP

W 97-65

+16.5

MOST

L 74-87

+8.5

FIU

L 67-92

−1.5

KENN

L 87-96

+23.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western KY has the better starters

Position by position: G Washington 1, Western KY 3, even 1

G WashingtonBetterWestern KY

G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

WKUBig

G T. Moore19.2 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 99

G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34

GWSmall

G N. Norgaard TR7.8 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11

G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70

Even

G A. Boone10.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 61

G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37

WKUSmall

G L. Hackman8.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 64

F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

WKUSmall

F E. Erkins-Ford TR8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 71

G WashingtonBetterWestern KY

GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9

GWSmall

WKU defense169th of 366 · -3.9

GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5

Even

WKU offense115th of 366 · -2.4

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

WKUBig

Backcourt+3.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

WKUSmall

Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

GWBig

Bench-3.8 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGW betterWKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

G Washington

Guards

A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min

Forwards

A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew

Western KY

Guards

T. Moore30 minN. Norgaard25 min · TRA. Boone25 minL. Hackman22 minS. Young19 min · TRK. Unseld11 min

Forwards

E. Erkins-Ford22 min · TRE. Walker16 min · TRM. KonareNewG. WeisNewJ. AdebayoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GW80.9 #46

WKU77.9 #95

Points per possession

GW1.15 #63

WKU1.09 #163

Pace (possessions)

GW70.2 #107

WKU71.5 #52

Shooting

Effective FG%

GW54.4 #55

WKU47.5 #327

3-point %

GW35.1 #106

WKU33.4 #205

3-point attempt rate

GW47.0 #33

WKU39.5 #184

Free throw rate

GW34.9 #184

WKU41.2 #42

Possessions

Turnover rate

GW18.1 #276

WKU14.5 #42

Offensive rebound rate

GW35.8 #26

WKU31.8 #134

Assists per game

GW15.4 #69

WKU12.9 #215

Defense

Points allowed

GW75.2 #195

WKU77.0 #241

Points allowed per possession

GW1.08 #149

WKU1.08 #155

Opponent effective FG%

GW52.4 #234

WKU51.2 #169

Opponent 3-point %

GW33.9 #175

WKU34.3 #205

Turnovers forced

GW17.8 #110

WKU17.2 #134

Defensive rebound rate

GW71.3 #91

WKU70.5 #135

Steals per game

GW7.2 #103

WKU7.4 #90

Blocks per game

GW3.5 #142

WKU2.3 #327

GW		WKU
Scoring
80.9 #46	Points per game	77.9 #95
1.15 #63	Points per possession	1.09 #163
70.2 #107	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #52
Shooting
54.4 #55	Effective FG%	47.5 #327
35.1 #106	3-point %	33.4 #205
47.0 #33	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #184
34.9 #184	Free throw rate	41.2 #42
Possessions
18.1 #276	Turnover rate	14.5 #42
35.8 #26	Offensive rebound rate	31.8 #134
15.4 #69	Assists per game	12.9 #215
Defense
75.2 #195	Points allowed	77.0 #241
1.08 #149	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #155
52.4 #234	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #169
33.9 #175	Opponent 3-point %	34.3 #205
17.8 #110	Turnovers forced	17.2 #134
71.3 #91	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #135
7.2 #103	Steals per game	7.4 #90
3.5 #142	Blocks per game	2.3 #327

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico61–86
W@ Utah Valley79–78
Lvs Saint Louis81–88
Wvs Fordham66–62
L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.

Western KY

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Kennesaw St87–96
L@ FIU67–92
L@ Missouri St74–87
Wvs UTEP97–65
Wvs New Mexico St93–70

A week or more of rest.

George Washington Revolutionaries vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

G Washington

Western KY

Western KY has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

G Washington

Western KY