SE Louisiana Lions at George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 1, 12:00 AM ETCharles E. Smith Center · at G Washington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SE Louisiana and G Washington
SELA	This season	GW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 79–64 · win probability GW 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

SELA 0, GW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GWBig

SELA offense vs GW defense

Offense 315th of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings

GWBig

Three-pointers

SELA hits 28.4% and allows 36.0%; GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 39.5% and 47.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

SELA has played the 276th-hardest schedule, GW the 95th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SELA 28.6%, GW 35.8%. Defensive: SELA 68.6%, GW 71.3%

GWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SELA 46.7 and allows 52.4; GW 54.4 and allows 52.4

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SELA plays 65.9 a game (318th fastest), GW 70.2 (107th). Faster games mean more points

GWSmall

GW offense vs SELA defense

Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 177th, on the model’s ratings

GWSmall

Home court

GW at home. This season: GW 0-0 at home, SELA 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SELA 18.4%, GW 18.1%. Forced: SELA 19.1%, GW 17.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SELA 4%, GW 13%. Transfers in: SELA 10, GW 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SELA 40.3, GW 34.9. Allowed: SELA 41.2, GW 35.0

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GW -14.9	—
Total	—	142.1	—
Projected score	—	SELA 63.6 · GW 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -8.8	—
1H total	66.5	—
1H projected score	SELA 28.9 · GW 37.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SELA LLLLW	14-16	47%	7-10	—
GW LLLWL	15-19	44%	8-7	—

Venue/role: SELA away; GW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SELA UOOUO	13-17	43%	8-22
GW UUOOU	16-18	47%	18-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SELA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
GW	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SE Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs UIW	W74–62WU
Dec 7	vs HCU	W55–47WU
Dec 10	@ CAL	No recent meeting

G Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs LIU	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs AMER	W107–67WO
Dec 12	@ BC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Louisiana

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L W W L W L L L L W L L L L W L L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W L W W L W L W L L W W L L W W W L L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U U O U O O O U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MISS	L 58-88	+21.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	@UL	L 52-58	+3.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 10	@GT	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 15	@MSST	L 68-75	+27.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 26	@UNCW	L 57-70	+11.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsGWEB	W 76-68	-6.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 29	vsNAVY	W 69-65	+3.5	W +7.5	136.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsNWST	L 68-76	-7.5	L −15.5	133.5	O 144
Dec 13	@HCU	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsETAM	L 69-70	-4.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 139
Dec 19	@LSU	L 65-78	+24.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 30	@UIW	L 70-79	+6.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSFA	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 136
Jan 5	vsLAM	W 60-52	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 112
Jan 10	@MCN	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 134
Jan 12	vsNOLA	L 76-79	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 17	@AMCC	L 56-68	+5.5	L −6.5	130.5	U 124
Jan 19	@RGV	L 65-68	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsNICH	W 67-61	-2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsMCN	L 66-76	+12.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 142
Jan 31	@SFA	L 58-85	+9.5	L −17.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 2	@LAM	L 54-73	+5.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 127
Feb 7	vsHCU	W 55-47	-4.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	vsUIW	W 74-62	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 136
Feb 14	@NWST	L 66-69	+1.5	L −1.5	131.5	O 135
Feb 16	@ETAM	L 53-70	+2.5	L −14.5	136.5	U 123
Feb 21	vsRGV	L 75-96	+4.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	vsAMCC	L 68-73	+1.5	L −3.5	130.5	O 141
Feb 28	@NICH	L 60-68	+4.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	@NOLA	W 82-78	+6.5	W +10.5	143.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

−8.5

L 52-58

−2.5

L 60-70

+4.5

MSST

L 68-75

+20.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−1.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+1.5

NAVY

W 69-65

+7.5

NWST

L 68-76

−15.5

HCU

W 74-71

+5.5

ETAM

L 69-70

−5.5

LSU

L 65-78

+11.5

UIW

L 70-79

−2.5

SFA

L 63-73

−6.5

LAM

W 60-52

+9.5

MCN

L 61-73

+4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

−5.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

+2.5

NICH

W 67-61

+3.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

−17.5

LAM

L 54-73

−13.5

HCU

W 55-47

+3.5

UIW

W 74-62

+10.5

NWST

L 66-69

−1.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−14.5

RGV

L 75-96

−16.5

AMCC

L 68-73

−3.5

NICH

L 60-68

−3.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+10.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MISS

L 58-88

+2.5

L 52-58

−25.5

L 60-70

−3.5

MSST

L 68-75

−7.5

UNCW

L 57-70

−10.5

GWEB

W 76-68

+2.5

NAVY

W 69-65

−2.5

NWST

L 68-76

+10.5

HCU

W 74-71

+12.5

ETAM

L 69-70

+1.5

LSU

L 65-78

−1.5

UIW

L 70-79

+13.5

SFA

L 63-73

−1.5

LAM

W 60-52

−23.5

MCN

L 61-73

−4.5

NOLA

L 76-79

+12.5

AMCC

L 56-68

−6.5

RGV

L 65-68

−2.5

NICH

W 67-61

−13.5

MCN

L 66-76

+2.5

SFA

L 58-85

+7.5

LAM

L 54-73

−5.5

HCU

W 55-47

−31.5

UIW

W 74-62

−1.5

NWST

L 66-69

+3.5

ETAM

L 53-70

−13.5

RGV

L 75-96

+32.5

AMCC

L 68-73

+10.5

NICH

L 60-68

−11.5

NOLA

W 82-78

+16.5

over 13under 17avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

34 games played

Straight up

18-16

53% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1653%

W W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L W W W W L W L L L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U O O O U O O O U O U U O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 31	@RICH	W 99-85	-2.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 3	vsLAS	W 77-55	-16.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 6	@DAY	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsLUC	W 101-66	-14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsDAV	L 79-84	-9.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 19	@GMU	L 64-69	+1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsRICH	W 85-69	-10.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@SLU	L 76-79	+10.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsFOR	L 65-79	-11.5	L −25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 4	@JOES	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@DUQ	L 86-88	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 10	vsURI	W 75-70	-5.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 13	vsGMU	W 72-53	-3.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 17	@VCU	L 75-89	+6.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 24	@LAS	W 104-77	-8.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 181
Feb 27	vsDAY	L 66-68	-2.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsSBU	W 91-82	-7.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	@LUC	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsFOR	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsSLU	L 81-88	+6.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 18	@UVU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 157
Mar 22	@UNM	L 61-86	+6.5	L −18.5	161.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

RICH

W 99-85

+11.5

LAS

W 77-55

+5.5

DAY

L 72-79

−4.5

LUC

W 101-66

+20.5

DAV

L 79-84

−14.5

GMU

L 64-69

−3.5

RICH

W 85-69

+5.5

SLU

L 76-79

+7.5

FOR

L 65-79

−25.5

JOES

L 73-76

−4.5

DUQ

L 86-88

−3.5

URI

W 75-70

−0.5

GMU

W 72-53

+15.5

VCU

L 75-89

−7.5

LAS

W 104-77

+18.5

DAY

L 66-68

−4.5

SBU

W 91-82

+1.5

LUC

L 62-68

−15.5

FOR

W 66-62

−3.5

SLU

L 81-88

−0.5

UVU

W 79-78

+2.5

UNM

L 61-86

−18.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

RICH

W 99-85

+21.5

LAS

W 77-55

−18.5

DAY

L 72-79

−3.5

LUC

W 101-66

+12.5

DAV

L 79-84

+12.5

GMU

L 64-69

−20.5

RICH

W 85-69

−5.5

SLU

L 76-79

−12.5

FOR

L 65-79

−6.5

JOES

L 73-76

−6.5

DUQ

L 86-88

+15.5

URI

W 75-70

−6.5

GMU

W 72-53

−24.5

VCU

L 75-89

+2.5

LAS

W 104-77

+34.5

DAY

L 66-68

−18.5

SBU

W 91-82

+15.5

LUC

L 62-68

−18.5

FOR

W 66-62

−16.5

SLU

L 81-88

+10.5

UVU

W 79-78

+4.5

UNM

L 61-86

−14.5

over 16under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

G Washington has the better starters

Position by position: SE Louisiana 1, G Washington 3, even 1

SE LouisianaBetterG Washington

G Q. Allen TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 62

Even

G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

G J. Furman TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

GWSmall

G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34

G T. Bailey TR6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 12

GWBig

G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70

G T. Rolison TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 58

SELASmall

G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37

F A. Sims TR7.2 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 28

GWSmall

F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

SE LouisianaBetterG Washington

SELA offense315th of 366 · -10.2

GWBig

GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5

SELA defense177th of 366 · -4.0

GWSmall

GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9

Backcourt-5.3 · 4 players

GWSmall

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.9 · 1 player

GWSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-3.3 · 5 players

GWSmall

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSELA betterGW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SE Louisiana

Guards

Q. Allen25 min · TRJ. Furman24 min · TRT. Bailey23 min · TRT. Rolison17 min · TRG. Sanford12 min · TRJ. Nyam1 min · TR

Forwards

A. Sims32 min · TRJ. Massaquoi17 min · TRY. Ndjonga10 min · TRG. Shoemaker7 min

Centers

D. Akoue12 min · TR

G Washington

Guards

A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min

Forwards

A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SELA64.8 #350

GW80.9 #46

Points per possession

SELA0.98 #339

GW1.15 #63

Pace (possessions)

SELA65.9 #318

GW70.2 #107

Shooting

Effective FG%

SELA46.7 #343

GW54.4 #55

3-point %

SELA28.4 #362

GW35.1 #106

3-point attempt rate

SELA39.5 #183

GW47.0 #33

Free throw rate

SELA40.3 #56

GW34.9 #184

Possessions

Turnover rate

SELA18.4 #291

GW18.1 #276

Offensive rebound rate

SELA28.6 #245

GW35.8 #26

Assists per game

SELA11.4 #319

GW15.4 #69

Defense

Points allowed

SELA71.3 #86

GW75.2 #195

Points allowed per possession

SELA1.08 #172

GW1.08 #149

Opponent effective FG%

SELA52.4 #233

GW52.4 #234

Opponent 3-point %

SELA36.0 #301

GW33.9 #175

Turnovers forced

SELA19.1 #47

GW17.8 #110

Defensive rebound rate

SELA68.6 #225

GW71.3 #91

Steals per game

SELA6.8 #145

GW7.2 #103

Blocks per game

SELA2.7 #272

GW3.5 #142

SELA		GW
Scoring
64.8 #350	Points per game	80.9 #46
0.98 #339	Points per possession	1.15 #63
65.9 #318	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #107
Shooting
46.7 #343	Effective FG%	54.4 #55
28.4 #362	3-point %	35.1 #106
39.5 #183	3-point attempt rate	47.0 #33
40.3 #56	Free throw rate	34.9 #184
Possessions
18.4 #291	Turnover rate	18.1 #276
28.6 #245	Offensive rebound rate	35.8 #26
11.4 #319	Assists per game	15.4 #69
Defense
71.3 #86	Points allowed	75.2 #195
1.08 #172	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #149
52.4 #233	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #234
36.0 #301	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #175
19.1 #47	Turnovers forced	17.8 #110
68.6 #225	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #91
6.8 #145	Steals per game	7.2 #103
2.7 #272	Blocks per game	3.5 #142

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SE Louisiana

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ LSU N Orleans82–78
L@ Nicholls60–68
Lvs Texas A&M-CC68–73
Lvs UT Rio Grande75–96
L@ East Texas A&M53–70

A week or more of rest.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico61–86
W@ Utah Valley79–78
Lvs Saint Louis81–88
Wvs Fordham66–62
L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.

SE Louisiana Lions at George Washington Revolutionaries

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Louisiana

G Washington

G Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SE Louisiana

G Washington