1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. UMBC @ GW
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

UMBC Retrievers at George Washington Revolutionaries

Charles E. Smith Center · at G Washington
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#101GWG Washington
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMBCThis seasonGW
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 82–66 · win probability GW 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

UMBC 3, GW 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, GW the 95th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GWBig
GW offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
GWBig
UMBC offense vs GW defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings
GWBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, GW 35.8%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, GW 71.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), GW 70.2 (107th). Faster games mean more points
UMBCSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, GW 34.9. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, GW 35.0
UMBCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; GW 54.4 and allows 52.4
UMBCSmall
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 38.8% and 47.0% of their shots
GWSmall
Home court
GW at home. This season: GW 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, GW 18.1%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, GW 17.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, GW 13%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, GW 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GW -16.2—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—UMBC 65.7 · GW 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGW -9.5—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreUMBC 29.8 · GW 39.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

G Washington has the better starters

Position by position: UMBC 0, G Washington 1, even 4
UMBCBetterG Washington
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
Even
G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
GWSmall
G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
Even
G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48
UMBCBetterG Washington
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
GWBig
GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
GWBig
GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterGW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
G Washington
Guards
A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min
Forwards
A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCGW
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game80.9 #46
1.13 #85Points per possession1.15 #63
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)70.2 #107
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%54.4 #55
36.1 #553-point %35.1 #106
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate47.0 #33
34.1 #205Free throw rate34.9 #184
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate18.1 #276
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate35.8 #26
11.9 #291Assists per game15.4 #69
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed75.2 #195
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession1.08 #149
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%52.4 #234
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %33.9 #175
15.1 #283Turnovers forced17.8 #110
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate71.3 #91
4.9 #338Steals per game7.2 #103
2.4 #314Blocks per game3.5 #142
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ New Mexico61–86
  • W@ Utah Valley79–78
  • Lvs Saint Louis81–88
  • Wvs Fordham66–62
  • L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.