1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. CHSO @ ETSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU
#326CHSOCharleston So
@
#173ETSUETSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CHSOThis seasonETSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 81–69 · win probability ETSU 83%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

CHSO 2, ETSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ETSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHSO 18.6%, ETSU 15.2%. Forced: CHSO 12.8%, ETSU 18.4%
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: CHSO plays 75.1 a game (5th fastest), ETSU 67.0 (279th). Faster games mean more points
ETSUBig
ETSU offense vs CHSO defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 358th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUBig
CHSO offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 268th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CHSO 30.5, ETSU 35.0. Allowed: CHSO 43.3, ETSU 36.4
CHSOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CHSO 54.1 and allows 47.0; ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0
CHSOSmall
Three-pointers
CHSO hits 35.6% and allows 31.9%; ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 49.5% and 37.8% of their shots
ETSUSmall
Home court
ETSU at home. This season: ETSU 0-0 at home, CHSO 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHSO 29.4%, ETSU 28.3%. Defensive: CHSO 69.7%, ETSU 72.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHSO 22%, ETSU 29%. Transfers in: CHSO 3, ETSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
CHSO has played the 297th-hardest schedule, ETSU the 309th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ETSU -11.1—
Total—150.0—
Projected score—CHSO 69.4 · ETSU 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadETSU -6.5—
1H total70.1—
1H projected scoreCHSO 31.8 · ETSU 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ETSU has the better starters

Position by position: Charleston So 0, ETSU 1, even 4
Charleston SoBetterETSU
G J. Taylor4.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 2
ETSUSmall
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
G N. Errica TR1.3 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
F L. Olalere4.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
Even
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
F D. Brafford1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
F M. Majok TR2.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
Charleston SoBetterETSU
CHSO offense268th of 366 · -8.1
ETSUBig
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
CHSO defense358th of 366 · -10.2
ETSUBig
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players
CHSOBig
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
CHSOSmall
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestCHSO betterETSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Charleston So
Guards
J. Taylor21 minN. Errica4 min · TRJ. McLambNewJ. CrawfordNewA. RuffoloNewR. BrooksNew
Forwards
L. Olalere16 minD. Brafford7 minM. Majok5 min · TRT. Deng1 min · TRM. LeslieNew
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CHSOETSU
Scoring
80.9 #44Points per game76.8 #121
1.08 #188Points per possession1.15 #59
75.1 #5Pace (possessions)67.0 #279
Shooting
54.1 #66Effective FG%55.3 #33
35.6 #783-point %34.7 #132
49.5 #163-point attempt rate37.8 #216
30.5 #296Free throw rate35.0 #180
Possessions
18.6 #302Turnover rate15.2 #79
29.4 #223Offensive rebound rate28.3 #252
15.7 #57Assists per game13.9 #154
Defense
81.0 #332Points allowed70.1 #61
1.08 #150Points allowed per possession1.04 #77
47.0 #21Opponent effective FG%51.0 #161
31.9 #58Opponent 3-point %32.9 #110
12.8 #362Turnovers forced18.4 #79
69.7 #174Defensive rebound rate72.1 #64
4.9 #339Steals per game8.6 #16
4.9 #21Blocks per game3.3 #180
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charleston So

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Winthrop81–86
  • W@ UNC Asheville92–75
  • Wvs Winthrop86–84
  • Lvs Longwood96–107
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb75–66

A week or more of rest.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.