UMBC Retrievers at Delaware State Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 12:00 AM ETMemorial Hall (DE) · at Delaware St

#264UMBCUMBC

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UMBC and Delaware St
UMBC	This season	DSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UMBC 73–67 · win probability UMBC 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

UMBC 6, DSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UMBCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; DSU 42.9 and allows 52.9

UMBCBig

Three-pointers

UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; DSU hits 28.4% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 38.8% and 28.9% of their shots

UMBCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, DSU 34.1. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, DSU 40.5

UMBCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, DSU 27.7%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, DSU 68.0%

UMBCSmall

DSU offense vs UMBC defense

Offense 354th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings

DSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, DSU 41%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, DSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UMBCSmall

UMBC offense vs DSU defense

Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 307th, on the model’s ratings

DSUSmall

Home court

DSU at home. This season: DSU 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, DSU 19.8%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, DSU 19.6%

Context

Schedule so far

UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, DSU the 354th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), DSU 66.7 (290th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UMBC -5.9	—
Total	—	140.8	—
Projected score	—	UMBC 73.4 · DSU 67.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UMBC -3.6	—
1H total	65.9	—
1H projected score	UMBC 34.8 · DSU 31.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UMBC WWWWL	19-12	61%	10-5	—
DSU LLWWL	9-18	33%	4-5	—

Venue/role: UMBC away; DSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UMBC UOOUO	14-17	45%	22-9
DSU UUUOU	8-19	30%	5-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMBC	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
DSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UMBC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs BUCK	W73–66WU
Dec 12	@ WAG	W71–70LO

Delaware St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	vs BING	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs LONG	W81–76WO
Dec 15	@ CONN	L60–95LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UMBC 1–0 DSUUMBC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UMBC 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2025-26	DSU 57 @ UMBC 71	UMBC -13.5	UMBC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMBC

31 games played

Straight up

22-9

71% wins

Against the spread

19-12

61% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-971%

L W W L W L W L L L W W W L W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1261%

W L L L W W W L L L W L L L W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

U U O U U O U O U O O U O O U O U U U O O O U U U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@DAY	L 71-77	+25.5	W +19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@MORG	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 16	vsWAG	W 71-70	-6.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 19	@GW	L 52-89	+22.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsDSU	W 71-57	-13.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	@GTWN	L 81-90	+19.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 171
Dec 6	@BUCK	W 73-66	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsBUF	L 79-83	+3.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 162
Dec 12	vsARMY	L 60-63	-7.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 21	@USF	L 69-94	+22.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 163
Dec 29	@COPP	W 93-59	-10.5	W +23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 8	vsME	W 69-62	-7.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsUNH	W 75-74	-6.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Jan 15	@BRY	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 153
Jan 19	@BING	W 78-60	-4.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 138
Jan 22	vsNJIT	W 87-74	-6.5	W +6.5	143.5	O 161
Jan 24	vsUML	W 79-56	-2.5	W +20.5	151.5	U 135
Jan 29	@UVM	L 55-64	+8.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 119
Jan 31	@UALB	W 68-65	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 133
Feb 5	vsBING	W 79-62	-11.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 141
Feb 12	@ME	W 78-62	-3.5	W +12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	@UNH	W 85-63	-2.5	W +19.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 19	vsUVM	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 137
Feb 21	vsUALB	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Feb 26	vsBRY	W 70-58	-11.5	W +0.5	138.5	U 128
Feb 28	@UML	W 84-60	-2.5	W +21.5	150.5	U 144
Mar 3	@NJIT	W 91-52	-4.5	W +34.5	143.5	U 143
Mar 7	vsUNH	W 84-69	-12.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 153
Mar 10	vsUML	W 91-69	-7.5	W +14.5	147.5	O 160
Mar 14	vsUVM	W 74-59	-1.5	W +13.5	134.5	U 133
Mar 17	vsHOW	L 83-86	+1.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

+19.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

−5.5

L 52-89

−14.5

DSU

W 71-57

+0.5

GTWN

L 81-90

+10.5

BUCK

W 73-66

+8.5

BUF

L 79-83

−0.5

ARMY

L 60-63

−10.5

USF

L 69-94

−2.5

COPP

W 93-59

+23.5

W 69-62

−0.5

UNH

W 75-74

−5.5

BRY

L 74-79

−6.5

BING

W 78-60

+13.5

NJIT

W 87-74

+6.5

UML

W 79-56

+20.5

UVM

L 55-64

−0.5

UALB

W 68-65

+1.5

BING

W 79-62

+5.5

W 78-62

+12.5

UNH

W 85-63

+19.5

UVM

W 75-62

+14.5

UALB

W 66-62

−3.5

BRY

W 70-58

+0.5

UML

W 84-60

+21.5

NJIT

W 91-52

+34.5

UNH

W 84-69

+2.5

UML

W 91-69

+14.5

UVM

W 74-59

+13.5

HOW

L 83-86

−1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 12avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 71-77

−6.5

MORG

W 81-79

−2.5

WAG

W 71-70

+0.5

L 52-89

−19.5

DSU

W 71-57

−10.5

GTWN

L 81-90

+21.5

BUCK

W 73-66

−4.5

BUF

L 79-83

+16.5

ARMY

L 60-63

−23.5

USF

L 69-94

+2.5

COPP

W 93-59

+3.5

W 69-62

−2.5

UNH

W 75-74

+5.5

BRY

L 74-79

+17.5

BING

W 78-60

−2.5

NJIT

W 87-74

+17.5

UML

W 79-56

−16.5

UVM

L 55-64

−22.5

UALB

W 68-65

−8.5

BING

W 79-62

+2.5

W 78-62

+4.5

UNH

W 85-63

+1.5

UVM

W 75-62

−5.5

UALB

W 66-62

−16.5

BRY

W 70-58

−10.5

UML

W 84-60

−6.5

NJIT

W 91-52

−0.5

UNH

W 84-69

+10.5

UML

W 91-69

+12.5

UVM

W 74-59

−1.5

HOW

L 83-86

+25.5

over 14under 17avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Delaware St

27 games played

Straight up

5-22

19% wins

Against the spread

9-18

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-19

30% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2219%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-1833%

L L L L L L W W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-1930%

U U U U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 15	@NHVN	L 52-65	+1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 23	@MIA	L 41-97	+34.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 29	@UMBC	L 57-71	+13.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsNAVY	L 59-66	+15.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 6	vsDEL	W 75-72	+7.5	W +10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 13	@LONG	W 81-76	+13.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 18	@JOES	L 51-67	+17.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 29	@RUTG	L 50-65	+20.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsCOPP	L 51-53	-8.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNORF	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	@HOW	L 58-84	+8.5	L −17.5	129.5	O 142
Jan 17	vsMORG	L 79-80	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 26	@SCST	L 64-70	+1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsUMES	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	128.5	U 122
Feb 7	@COPP	L 47-65	-1.5	L −19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 9	@NCCU	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	134.5	O 135
Feb 14	@NORF	L 58-75	+9.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsHOW	L 59-91	+11.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 21	@MORG	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsNCCU	L 60-74	+2.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 134
Mar 2	vsSCST	L 59-61	-3.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@UMES	W 57-56	+5.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 113
Mar 11	vsMORG	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 13	vsNCCU	L 53-59	+3.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 112

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−11.5

MIA

L 41-97

−21.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−0.5

NAVY

L 59-66

+8.5

DEL

W 75-72

+10.5

LONG

W 81-76

+18.5

JOES

L 51-67

+1.5

RUTG

L 50-65

+5.5

COPP

L 51-53

−10.5

NORF

L 64-66

+2.5

HOW

L 58-84

−17.5

MORG

L 79-80

−4.5

SCST

L 64-70

−4.5

UMES

W 65-57

+10.5

COPP

L 47-65

−19.5

NCCU

L 63-72

−1.5

NORF

L 58-75

−7.5

HOW

L 59-91

−20.5

MORG

L 68-82

−8.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−11.5

SCST

L 59-61

−5.5

UMES

W 57-56

+6.5

MORG

W 75-70

+8.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−13.5

MIA

L 41-97

−13.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−10.5

NAVY

L 59-66

−7.5

DEL

W 75-72

+17.5

LONG

W 81-76

+17.5

JOES

L 51-67

−19.5

RUTG

L 50-65

−20.5

COPP

L 51-53

−35.5

NORF

L 64-66

−2.5

HOW

L 58-84

+12.5

MORG

L 79-80

+22.5

SCST

L 64-70

−1.5

UMES

W 65-57

−6.5

COPP

L 47-65

−20.5

NCCU

L 63-72

+0.5

NORF

L 58-75

−1.5

HOW

L 59-91

+18.5

MORG

L 68-82

+6.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−1.5

SCST

L 59-61

−14.5

UMES

W 57-56

−11.5

MORG

W 75-70

+2.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−19.5

over 8under 19avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Delaware St has the better starters

Position by position: UMBC 1, Delaware St 2, even 2

UMBCBetterDelaware St

G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63

UMBCSmall

G R. Moore6.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 33

G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

DSUSmall

G N. Muhammad TR7.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

G J. St Clair3.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 1 ast Score 14

F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24

DSUSmall

G D. Shepherd4.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 58

F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F A. Santos6.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

UMBCBetterDelaware St

UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8

Even

DSU defense307th of 366 · -7.9

UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0

UMBCSmall

DSU offense354th of 366 · -13.2

Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players

UMBCSmall

Backcourt-4.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestUMBC betterDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UMBC

Guards

F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew

Forwards

R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew

Delaware St

Guards

R. Moore22 minN. Muhammad18 min · TRJ. St Clair15 minD. Shepherd13 minN. ReedusNewI. SullivanNew

Forwards

A. Santos20 minM. Adamu13 minT. HawkinsNewG. EkukwaiNewJ. ObioraNewF. MuntariNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UMBC75.7 #149

DSU59.7 #365

Points per possession

UMBC1.13 #85

DSU0.89 #365

Pace (possessions)

UMBC67.0 #278

DSU66.7 #290

Shooting

Effective FG%

UMBC54.1 #64

DSU42.9 #364

3-point %

UMBC36.1 #55

DSU28.4 #361

3-point attempt rate

UMBC38.8 #195

DSU28.9 #357

Free throw rate

UMBC34.1 #205

DSU34.1 #204

Possessions

Turnover rate

UMBC14.1 #25

DSU19.8 #346

Offensive rebound rate

UMBC24.9 #342

DSU27.7 #277

Assists per game

UMBC11.9 #291

DSU9.7 #361

Defense

Points allowed

UMBC68.5 #41

DSU71.4 #89

Points allowed per possession

UMBC1.02 #46

DSU1.07 #143

Opponent effective FG%

UMBC49.4 #79

DSU52.9 #265

Opponent 3-point %

UMBC32.7 #98

DSU33.0 #123

Turnovers forced

UMBC15.1 #283

DSU19.6 #32

Defensive rebound rate

UMBC74.2 #18

DSU68.0 #257

Steals per game

UMBC4.9 #338

DSU7.6 #73

Blocks per game

UMBC2.4 #314

DSU1.8 #353

UMBC		DSU
Scoring
75.7 #149	Points per game	59.7 #365
1.13 #85	Points per possession	0.89 #365
67.0 #278	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #290
Shooting
54.1 #64	Effective FG%	42.9 #364
36.1 #55	3-point %	28.4 #361
38.8 #195	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #357
34.1 #205	Free throw rate	34.1 #204
Possessions
14.1 #25	Turnover rate	19.8 #346
24.9 #342	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #277
11.9 #291	Assists per game	9.7 #361
Defense
68.5 #41	Points allowed	71.4 #89
1.02 #46	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #143
49.4 #79	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #265
32.7 #98	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #123
15.1 #283	Turnovers forced	19.6 #32
74.2 #18	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #257
4.9 #338	Steals per game	7.6 #73
2.4 #314	Blocks per game	1.8 #353

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard83–86
Wvs Vermont74–59
Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
Wvs New Hampshire84–69
W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Delaware St

5-22 in 2025-26 overall · 3-13 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC Central53–59
Wvs Morgan St75–70
W@ MD Eastern57–56
Lvs SC State59–61
Lvs NC Central60–74

A week or more of rest.

UMBC Retrievers at Delaware State Hornets

What could decide it: UMBC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UMBC

Delaware St

Delaware St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UMBC

Delaware St