1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. CLE @ XAV
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Cleveland State Vikings at Xavier Musketeers

Cintas Center · at Xavier
#315CLECleveland St
@
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CLEThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 94–67 · win probability XAV 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 161.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

CLE 1, XAV 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
XAVBig
XAV offense vs CLE defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 356th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CLE has played the 222nd-hardest schedule, XAV the 33rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
XAVBig
CLE offense vs XAV defense
Offense 248th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
XAVBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CLE 17.9%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: CLE 15.1%, XAV 15.5%
XAVSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLE 27.0%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: CLE 63.4%, XAV 70.5%
CLESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CLE 37.9, XAV 28.1. Allowed: CLE 35.5, XAV 32.6
XAVSmall
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, CLE 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
CLE hits 37.5% and allows 36.1%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 50.8% and 40.6% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLE 0%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: CLE 7, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLE 54.2 and allows 57.2; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: CLE plays 71.4 a game (56th fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—XAV -26.8—
Total—161.4—
Projected score—CLE 67.3 · XAV 94.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadXAV -15.8—
1H total75.4—
1H projected scoreCLE 29.8 · XAV 45.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: Cleveland St 0, Xavier 5, even 0
Cleveland StBetterXavier
G O. Bronston TR10.3 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55
XAVBig
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G J. Lowery TR4.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 30
XAVBig
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G R. Griffith TR3.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 18
XAVBig
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
G C. Stinson TR1.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 14
XAVBig
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
C D. Vorst TR7.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50
XAVSmall
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
Cleveland StBetterXavier
CLE offense248th of 366 · -7.5
XAVBig
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
CLE defense356th of 366 · -10.1
XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-3.5 · 4 players
XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.2 · 1 player
XAVSmall
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench+0.0 · 2 players
XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCLE betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Cleveland St
Guards
O. Bronston21 min · TRJ. Lowery15 min · TRR. Griffith14 min · TRC. Stinson8 min · TRA. Bruskotter7 min · TRM. BaysNew
Forwards
D. Jones2 min · TRG. HeadingsNewB. McCruterNew
Centers
D. Vorst21 min · TRB. WhiteNew
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CLEXAV
Scoring
78.6 #89Points per game78.4 #91
1.10 #133Points per possession1.09 #149
71.4 #56Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
54.2 #62Effective FG%51.8 #155
37.5 #213-point %36.5 #39
50.8 #113-point attempt rate40.6 #156
37.9 #105Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
17.9 #264Turnover rate14.0 #21
27.0 #294Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
14.8 #100Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
88.6 #363Points allowed80.6 #329
1.24 #363Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
57.2 #360Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
36.1 #309Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
15.1 #279Turnovers forced15.5 #253
63.4 #356Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
5.5 #289Steals per game6.5 #181
2.6 #297Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cleveland St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wright St61–90
  • Wvs IU Indy101–93
  • L@ Robert Morris64–83
  • Lvs N Kentucky70–81
  • Lvs Purdue FW86–92

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.