1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. BALL @ FSU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Ball State Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles

Tucker Center · at Florida St
#181BALLBall State
@
#81FSUFlorida St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BALLThis seasonFSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 81–66 · win probability FSU 91%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FSU has more of the edges

BALL 0, FSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
BALL has played the 236th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: BALL plays 65.9 a game (317th fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points
FSUBig
BALL offense vs FSU defense
Offense 221st of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
FSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: BALL 47.0 and allows 52.7; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2
FSUSmall
FSU offense vs BALL defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 159th, on the model’s ratings
FSUSmall
Home court
FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, BALL 0-0 away
FSUSmall
Three-pointers
BALL hits 31.4% and allows 34.8%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 39.4% and 50.6% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BALL 16.2%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: BALL 18.7%, FSU 19.0%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BALL 25%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: BALL 9, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: BALL 31.6, FSU 34.7. Allowed: BALL 32.1, FSU 32.7
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BALL 27.1%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: BALL 69.0%, FSU 65.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FSU -15.1—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—BALL 66.2 · FSU 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFSU -8.8—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreBALL 30.1 · FSU 38.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida St has the better starters

Position by position: Ball State 1, Florida St 4, even 0
Ball StateBetterFlorida St
G Z. Collins TR11.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 73
FSUSmall
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
G S. Blake TR10.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 53
FSUSmall
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G J. Guy-King TR10 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast Score 50
FSUSmall
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
G K. Parker TR10.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
BALLBig
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
F M. Jones4.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 9
FSUBig
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
Ball StateBetterFlorida St
BALL offense221st of 366 · -6.7
FSUSmall
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
BALL defense159th of 366 · -3.5
FSUSmall
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt+0.6 · 4 players
FSUBig
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 1 player
FSUBig
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
FSUSmall
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestBALL betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Ball State
Guards
Z. Collins31 min · TRS. Blake29 min · TRJ. Guy-King23 min · TRK. Parker21 min · TRJ. Hart19 minT. Lewis18 min · TR
Forwards
M. Jones31 minB. Durodola19 min · TRK. WrightNewK. McGrewNew
Centers
J. Smith9 min · TR
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BALLFSU
Scoring
66.1 #345Points per game80.4 #58
1.00 #325Points per possession1.12 #101
65.9 #317Pace (possessions)71.8 #41
Shooting
47.0 #336Effective FG%52.3 #132
31.4 #3123-point %33.1 #226
39.4 #1863-point attempt rate50.6 #13
31.6 #263Free throw rate34.7 #191
Possessions
16.2 #151Turnover rate15.2 #80
27.1 #290Offensive rebound rate30.8 #170
12.4 #259Assists per game14.3 #124
Defense
71.4 #88Points allowed77.9 #264
1.09 #184Points allowed per possession1.08 #178
52.7 #253Opponent effective FG%52.2 #226
34.8 #239Opponent 3-point %34.6 #228
18.7 #60Turnovers forced19.0 #51
69.0 #204Defensive rebound rate65.9 #319
7.5 #88Steals per game7.9 #44
2.7 #286Blocks per game3.9 #84
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Ball State

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs C Michigan85–69
  • W@ W Michigan74–71
  • W@ N Illinois79–43
  • Wvs UMass74–73
  • Lvs Akron65–78

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.