1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. GB @ FSU
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Green Bay Phoenix at Florida State Seminoles

Tucker Center · at Florida St
#225GBGreen Bay
@
#81FSUFlorida St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GBThis seasonFSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FSU 84–68 · win probability FSU 92%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FSU has more of the edges

GB 2, FSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
GB has played the 255th-hardest schedule, FSU the 73rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
FSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GB 15.9%, FSU 15.2%. Forced: GB 13.2%, FSU 19.0%
FSUBig
FSU offense vs GB defense
Offense 73rd of 366 against a defense 227th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: GB plays 65.2 a game (339th fastest), FSU 71.8 (41st). Faster games mean more points
FSUBig
GB offense vs FSU defense
Offense 219th of 366 against a defense 98th, on the model’s ratings
GBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GB 40%, FSU 9%. Transfers in: GB 3, FSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FSUSmall
Home court
FSU at home. This season: FSU 0-0 at home, GB 0-0 away
GBSmall
Three-pointers
GB hits 36.4% and allows 36.3%; FSU hits 33.1% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 37.3% and 50.6% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: GB 54.9 and allows 53.6; FSU 52.3 and allows 52.2
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GB 41.6, FSU 34.7. Allowed: GB 37.4, FSU 32.7
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GB 25.1%, FSU 30.8%. Defensive: GB 70.4%, FSU 65.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FSU -16.1—
Total—151.8—
Projected score—GB 67.8 · FSU 83.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFSU -9.4—
1H total70.9—
1H projected scoreGB 30.8 · FSU 40.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida St has the better starters

Position by position: Green Bay 1, Florida St 2, even 2
Green BayBetterFlorida St
G O. Lovejoy TR16 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 85
Even
G K. Taylor TR19.8 pts · 5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 90
G L. Thomas4.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
FSUBig
G A. Robinson TR8.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 3 ast Score 73
G M. Wrecke2.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 8
FSUBig
F S. Rancik TR12.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 82
F M. Hall13.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 49
GBSmall
F C. Schwieger TR5.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
F A. Hadaway TR14.5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 71
Even
F S. Abaev TR7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
Green BayBetterFlorida St
GB offense219th of 366 · -6.7
FSUSmall
FSU defense98th of 366 · -0.7
GB defense227th of 366 · -6.0
FSUBig
FSU offense73rd of 366 · +1.4
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
FSUBig
Backcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+1.4 · 3 players
Bench-3.9 · 4 players
FSUBig
Bench-0.2 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestGB betterFSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Green Bay
Guards
O. Lovejoy31 min · TRL. Thomas12 minM. Wrecke11 minK. Van Kauwenberg10 minB. Fitzgerald1 minS. ErhartNew
Forwards
M. Hall35 minA. Hadaway33 min · TRI. Sutherland10 min · TRH. GruetzmacherNewT. ColnaricNew
Centers
M. Cicic11 min
Florida St
Guards
K. Taylor36 min · TRA. Robinson27 min · TRJ. Crawford1 minJ. LopezNewA. RobinsonNewB. BassNew
Forwards
S. Rancik28 min · TRC. Schwieger20 min · TRS. Abaev16 min · TRA. Swinton16 minC. PaulNew
Centers
M. PonderNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GBFSU
Scoring
73.9 #201Points per game80.4 #58
1.13 #83Points per possession1.12 #101
65.2 #339Pace (possessions)71.8 #41
Shooting
54.9 #41Effective FG%52.3 #132
36.4 #423-point %33.1 #226
37.3 #2243-point attempt rate50.6 #13
41.6 #36Free throw rate34.7 #191
Possessions
15.9 #133Turnover rate15.2 #80
25.1 #339Offensive rebound rate30.8 #170
13.7 #172Assists per game14.3 #124
Defense
75.9 #215Points allowed77.9 #264
1.17 #338Points allowed per possession1.08 #178
53.6 #287Opponent effective FG%52.2 #226
36.3 #316Opponent 3-point %34.6 #228
13.2 #350Turnovers forced19.0 #51
70.4 #140Defensive rebound rate65.9 #319
4.2 #361Steals per game7.9 #44
2.7 #282Blocks per game3.9 #84
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Green Bay

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs N Kentucky76–96
  • Wvs Purdue FW64–56
  • Wvs Youngstown St85–63
  • L@ Detroit Mercy70–74
  • W@ Oakland73–68

A week or more of rest.

Florida St

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke79–80
  • Wvs California95–89
  • Wvs SMU91–78
  • W@ Pitt75–74
  • W@ Georgia Tech80–71

A week or more of rest.