Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ETMcCamish Pavilion · at Georgia Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Georgia and Georgia Tech
UGA	This season	GT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UGA 86–78 · win probability UGA 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 163.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UGA has more of the edges

UGA 5, GT 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UGABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UGA 14.3%, GT 18.6%. Forced: UGA 18.4%, GT 15.6%

UGASmall

UGA offense vs GT defense

Offense 19th of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings

UGASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UGA 36.9, GT 33.3. Allowed: UGA 30.2, GT 34.2

UGASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UGA 54.2 and allows 50.6; GT 50.0 and allows 49.9

UGASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UGA 46%, GT 16%. Transfers in: UGA 4, GT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GTSmall

Three-pointers

UGA hits 33.8% and allows 33.6%; GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 44.3% and 33.1% of their shots

GTSmall

Home court

GT at home. This season: GT 0-0 at home, UGA 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

UGA has played the 52nd-hardest schedule, GT the 78th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: UGA plays 74.7 a game (8th fastest), GT 71.9 (38th). Faster games mean more points

Even

GT offense vs UGA defense

Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 75th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UGA 34.9%, GT 29.9%. Defensive: UGA 65.1%, GT 69.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UGA -7.2	—
Total	—	163.9	—
Projected score	—	UGA 85.5 · GT 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UGA -4.4	—
1H total	76.5	—
1H projected score	UGA 40.5 · GT 36.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA WWWLL	16-17	48%	6-4	—
GT LWLLW	13-18	42%	5-14	—

Venue/role: UGA away; GT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UOOUO	18-15	55%	22-11
GT OUUUO	18-13	58%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
GT	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs CIN	W84–65WU
Nov 27	vs UCF	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs BC	No recent meeting

Georgia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs SAM	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs ALCN	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MSST	L73–85LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UGA 3–2 GTUGA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UGA has won the last 3 meetings · UGA 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 14, 2025-26	GT 87 @ UGA 92	UGA -15.5	GT W
Nov 15, 2024-25	UGA 77 @ GT 69	GT +1.5	UGA W
Dec 5, 2023-24	GT 62 @ UGA 76	UGA -5.5	UGA W
Dec 6, 2022-23	UGA 77 @ GT 79	GT -4.5	UGA W
Nov 19, 2021-22	GT 88 @ UGA 78	UGA +3.5	GT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia

33 games played

Straight up

22-11

67% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-15

55% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1167%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L L L W L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W W L L L L W W W L L L L L W L W W L W L W L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1555%

O U O O U U O O O U O O U O U U O U U U O U U U O O O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBELL	W 104-59	-23.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 5	vsUMES	W 94-29	-33.5	W +31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 9	vsMORE	W 120-81	-28.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 201
Nov 14	vsGT	W 92-87	-15.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsFAMU	W 87-57	-40.5	L −10.5	170.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsXAV	W 78-77	-10.5	L −9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsCLEM	L 94-97	+1.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Nov 29	vsTNTC	W 123-81	-34.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 204
Dec 2	@FSU	W 107-73	+1.5	W +35.5	176.5	O 180
Dec 13	vsCIN	W 84-65	-5.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 18	vsWCU	W 112-82	-32.5	L −2.5	167.5	O 194
Dec 22	vsWGA	W 103-74	-36.5	L −7.5	173.5	O 177
Dec 29	vsLIU	W 89-74	-30.5	L −15.5	179.5	U 163
Jan 3	vsAUB	W 104-100	-6.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 204
Jan 6	@FLA	L 77-92	+9.5	L −5.5	172.5	U 169
Jan 10	@SC	W 75-70	-4.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 14	vsMISS	L 95-97	-10.5	L −12.5	158.5	O 192
Jan 17	vsARK	W 90-76	-2.5	W +11.5	181.5	U 166
Jan 20	@MIZ	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 146
Jan 24	@TEX	L 67-87	+3.5	L −16.5	168.5	U 154
Jan 28	vsTENN	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 31	vsTA&M	L 77-92	-4.5	L −19.5	173.5	U 169
Feb 7	@LSU	W 83-71	-1.5	W +10.5	161.5	U 154
Feb 11	vsFLA	L 66-86	+8.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 152
Feb 14	@OU	L 78-94	+1.5	L −14.5	164.5	O 172
Feb 17	@UK	W 86-78	+6.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsTEX	W 91-80	-2.5	W +8.5	162.5	O 171
Feb 25	@VAN	L 80-88	+7.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 168
Feb 28	vsSC	W 87-68	-12.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 155
Mar 3	vsALA	W 98-88	+1.5	W +11.5	179.5	O 186
Mar 7	@MSST	W 102-96	-5.5	W +0.5	167.5	O 198
Mar 12	vsMISS	L 72-76	-5.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 148
Mar 19	vsSLU	L 77-102	-1.5	L −26.5	167.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+21.5

UMES

W 94-29

+31.5

W 120-81

+10.5

W 92-87

−10.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−10.5

XAV

W 78-77

−9.5

CLEM

L 94-97

−1.5

TNTC

W 123-81

+7.5

FSU

W 107-73

+35.5

CIN

W 84-65

+13.5

WCU

W 112-82

−2.5

WGA

W 103-74

−7.5

LIU

W 89-74

−15.5

AUB

W 104-100

−2.5

FLA

L 77-92

−5.5

W 75-70

+0.5

MISS

L 95-97

−12.5

ARK

W 90-76

+11.5

MIZ

W 74-72

+3.5

TEX

L 67-87

−16.5

TENN

L 85-86

+0.5

TA&M

L 77-92

−19.5

LSU

W 83-71

+10.5

FLA

L 66-86

−11.5

L 78-94

−14.5

W 86-78

+14.5

TEX

W 91-80

+8.5

VAN

L 80-88

−0.5

W 87-68

+6.5

ALA

W 98-88

+11.5

MSST

W 102-96

+0.5

MISS

L 72-76

−9.5

SLU

L 77-102

−26.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+12.5

UMES

W 94-29

−19.5

W 120-81

+50.5

W 92-87

+23.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−26.5

XAV

W 78-77

−10.5

CLEM

L 94-97

+38.5

TNTC

W 123-81

+43.5

FSU

W 107-73

+3.5

CIN

W 84-65

−8.5

WCU

W 112-82

+26.5

WGA

W 103-74

+3.5

LIU

W 89-74

−16.5

AUB

W 104-100

+30.5

FLA

L 77-92

−3.5

W 75-70

−18.5

MISS

L 95-97

+33.5

ARK

W 90-76

−15.5

MIZ

W 74-72

−17.5

TEX

L 67-87

−14.5

TENN

L 85-86

+13.5

TA&M

L 77-92

−4.5

LSU

W 83-71

−7.5

FLA

L 66-86

−12.5

L 78-94

+7.5

W 86-78

+2.5

TEX

W 91-80

+8.5

VAN

L 80-88

+4.5

W 87-68

−3.5

ALA

W 98-88

+6.5

MSST

W 102-96

+30.5

MISS

L 72-76

−8.5

SLU

L 77-102

+11.5

over 18under 15avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia Tech

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W W W L W L W L W L W L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 31	@DUKE	L 79-85	+27.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsBC	W 65-53	-6.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsSYR	L 72-82	+2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@MIA	L 81-91	+15.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 14	vsPITT	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	@NCSU	W 78-74	+17.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 24	vsCLEM	L 63-77	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 27	@VT	L 65-71	+9.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNC	L 75-91	+9.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 4	@CAL	L 85-90	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	@STAN	L 72-95	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	vsWAKE	L 67-83	+3.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	@ND	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 18	vsUVA	L 68-94	+13.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	@LOU	L 70-87	+23.5	W +6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 28	vsFSU	L 71-80	+5.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	vsCAL	L 65-76	+2.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@CLEM	L 76-79	+15.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+21.5

W 65-53

+5.5

SYR

L 72-82

−7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+5.5

PITT

L 66-89

−21.5

NCSU

W 78-74

+21.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−5.5

L 65-71

+3.5

UNC

L 75-91

−6.5

CAL

L 85-90

+2.5

STAN

L 72-95

−13.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−12.5

L 74-89

−9.5

UVA

L 68-94

−12.5

LOU

L 70-87

+6.5

FSU

L 71-80

−3.5

CAL

L 65-76

−8.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+10.5

W 65-53

−27.5

SYR

L 72-82

+7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+15.5

PITT

L 66-89

+9.5

NCSU

W 78-74

−2.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−2.5

L 65-71

−19.5

UNC

L 75-91

+5.5

CAL

L 85-90

+22.5

STAN

L 72-95

+15.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−8.5

L 74-89

+12.5

UVA

L 68-94

+11.5

LOU

L 70-87

−10.5

FSU

L 71-80

−7.5

CAL

L 65-76

−13.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+9.5

over 18under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia 1, Georgia Tech 0, even 4

GeorgiaBetterGeorgia Tech

G B. Cain13.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 95

Even

G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87

G F. Dilione V TR14 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93

Even

G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98

G M. Millender12 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 89

UGABig

G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

F K. Catchings11.6 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

Even

F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74

F J. Scott TR3.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

No call

F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked

GeorgiaBetterGeorgia Tech

UGA offense19th of 366 · +7.8

UGASmall

GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1

UGA defense75th of 366 · +0.7

Even

GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players

UGASmall

Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+2.4 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players

Bench+0.4 · 5 players

UGASmall

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestUGA betterGT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Georgia

Guards

B. Cain28 minF. Dilione V28 min · TRM. Millender26 minB. Klatsky2 minM. Jennings1 minK. MillenderNew

Forwards

K. Catchings23 minJ. Scott18 min · TRB. Dunlap17 min · TRK. Stagg13 minA. Osasuyi12 min · TRM. KuanyNew

Georgia Tech

Guards

N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew

Forwards

V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew

Centers

C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UGA89.4 #3

GT73.8 #208

Points per possession

UGA1.19 #18

GT1.03 #292

Pace (possessions)

UGA74.7 #8

GT71.9 #38

Shooting

Effective FG%

UGA54.2 #61

GT50.0 #234

3-point %

UGA33.8 #185

GT35.1 #109

3-point attempt rate

UGA44.3 #83

GT33.1 #313

Free throw rate

UGA36.9 #131

GT33.3 #229

Possessions

Turnover rate

UGA14.3 #31

GT18.6 #306

Offensive rebound rate

UGA34.9 #49

GT29.9 #203

Assists per game

UGA14.8 #102

GT15.8 #55

Defense

Points allowed

UGA79.8 #314

GT77.4 #247

Points allowed per possession

UGA1.07 #135

GT1.08 #148

Opponent effective FG%

UGA50.6 #134

GT49.9 #94

Opponent 3-point %

UGA33.6 #165

GT33.1 #134

Turnovers forced

UGA18.4 #82

GT15.6 #244

Defensive rebound rate

UGA65.1 #336

GT69.3 #189

Steals per game

UGA8.4 #21

GT6.1 #229

Blocks per game

UGA6.0 #3

GT3.9 #80

UGA		GT
Scoring
89.4 #3	Points per game	73.8 #208
1.19 #18	Points per possession	1.03 #292
74.7 #8	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #38
Shooting
54.2 #61	Effective FG%	50.0 #234
33.8 #185	3-point %	35.1 #109
44.3 #83	3-point attempt rate	33.1 #313
36.9 #131	Free throw rate	33.3 #229
Possessions
14.3 #31	Turnover rate	18.6 #306
34.9 #49	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #203
14.8 #102	Assists per game	15.8 #55
Defense
79.8 #314	Points allowed	77.4 #247
1.07 #135	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #148
50.6 #134	Opponent effective FG%	49.9 #94
33.6 #165	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #134
18.4 #82	Turnovers forced	15.6 #244
65.1 #336	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #189
8.4 #21	Steals per game	6.1 #229
6.0 #3	Blocks per game	3.9 #80

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia

22-11 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Saint Louis77–102
Lvs Ole Miss72–76
W@ Mississippi St102–96
Wvs Alabama98–88
Wvs South Carolina87–68

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Clemson76–79
Lvs California65–76
Lvs Florida St71–80
L@ Louisville70–87
Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

What could decide it: UGA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

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Georgia has the better starters

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Georgia

Georgia Tech