Eastern Illinois Panthers at Illinois Fighting Illini: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 9:00 PM ETState Farm Center · at Illinois

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: E Illinois and Illinois
EIU	This season	ILL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 98–50 · win probability ILL 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

EIU 0, ILL 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILLBig

EIU offense vs ILL defense

Offense 360th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

ILLBig

ILL offense vs EIU defense

Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 332nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

EIU has played the 314th-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ILLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: EIU 28.2%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: EIU 64.8%, ILL 73.3%

ILLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: EIU 45.7 and allows 50.8; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3

ILLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: EIU 33.5, ILL 33.2. Allowed: EIU 35.3, ILL 19.7

ILLSmall

Three-pointers

EIU hits 31.7% and allows 31.7%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 29.9% and 49.7% of their shots

ILLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: EIU 22%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: EIU 0, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ILLSmall

Home court

ILL at home. This season: ILL 0-0 at home, EIU 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: EIU 18.6%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: EIU 19.3%, ILL 11.6%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: EIU plays 67.0 a game (280th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILL -47.6	—
Total	—	147.5	—
Projected score	—	EIU 50 · ILL 97.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -28.2	—
1H total	69.0	—
1H projected score	EIU 20.4 · ILL 48.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EIU LWLWW	17-13	57%	9-7	—
ILL WWWWL	22-15	59%	10-7	—

Venue/role: EIU away; ILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EIU OUUOO	14-16	47%	10-20
ILL OUUUU	15-22	41%	28-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

E Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs NIU	W72–59WU
Dec 2	vs ILST	L61–69WU
Dec 5	@ BELL	No recent meeting

Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs WIN	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs WKU	No recent meeting
Dec 4	vs CONN	L62–71LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EIU 0–3 ILLILL leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 3 meetings · EIU 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	EIU 67 @ ILL 112	ILL -24.5	ILL W
Nov 6, 2023-24	EIU 52 @ ILL 80	ILL -30.5	EIU W
Nov 7, 2022-23	EIU 57 @ ILL 87	ILL -29.5	ILL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Illinois

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L L L L L L L W L L W W W L W L L L L W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W L L L W L W W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U O O O O U U O U U U U U O U O O U U U O O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136
Nov 14	@UK	L 53-99	+35.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 25	@CARK	L 60-81	+5.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 28	@PUR	L 62-109	+40.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 6	vsLIN	L 74-82	+8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEKU	L 59-68	+6.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 14	@ISU	L 53-78	+43.5	W +18.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 18	vsSIUE	W 76-72	+6.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 148
Jan 1	@SEMO	L 59-68	+12.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Jan 3	@UTM	L 61-65	+10.5	W +6.5	133.5	U 126
Jan 8	vsTNTC	W 71-61	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTNST	W 74-70	+3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 13	vsWIU	W 57-55	-6.5	L −4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 15	@LR	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 22	@USI	W 59-51	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 24	@MORE	L 68-73	+4.5	L −0.5	134.5	O 141
Jan 29	vsUTM	L 68-76	+3.5	L −4.5	129.5	O 144
Jan 31	vsSEMO	L 59-77	+4.5	L −13.5	138.5	U 136
Feb 5	@TNST	L 68-77	+9.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	@TNTC	W 60-54	+4.5	W +10.5	140.5	U 114
Feb 10	@WIU	L 70-79	-4.5	L −13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsLR	W 78-72	+2.5	W +8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsMORE	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 143
Feb 21	vsUSI	L 68-70	-4.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 26	@LIN	W 71-67	+7.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@SIUE	L 50-77	+5.5	L −21.5	129.5	U 127
Mar 4	vsSIUE	W 77-71	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUTM	L 63-66	+7.5	W +4.5	126.5	O 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

L 53-99

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−15.5

PUR

L 62-109

−6.5

LIN

L 74-82

+0.5

EKU

L 59-68

−2.5

ISU

L 53-78

+18.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+10.5

SEMO

L 59-68

+3.5

UTM

L 61-65

+6.5

TNTC

W 71-61

+11.5

TNST

W 74-70

+7.5

WIU

W 57-55

−4.5

L 63-74

−4.5

USI

W 59-51

+10.5

L 68-73

−0.5

UTM

L 68-76

−4.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−13.5

TNST

L 68-77

+0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

+10.5

WIU

L 70-79

−13.5

W 78-72

+8.5

L 70-73

−1.5

USI

L 68-70

−6.5

LIN

W 71-67

+11.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−21.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+9.5

UTM

L 63-66

+4.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

L 53-99

+4.5

CARK

L 60-81

+1.5

PUR

L 62-109

+29.5

LIN

L 74-82

+10.5

EKU

L 59-68

−22.5

ISU

L 53-78

−13.5

SIUE

W 76-72

+13.5

SEMO

L 59-68

−19.5

UTM

L 61-65

−7.5

TNTC

W 71-61

−8.5

TNST

W 74-70

−0.5

WIU

W 57-55

−20.5

L 63-74

+3.5

USI

W 59-51

−25.5

L 68-73

+6.5

UTM

L 68-76

+14.5

SEMO

L 59-77

−2.5

TNST

L 68-77

−0.5

TNTC

W 60-54

−26.5

WIU

L 70-79

+15.5

W 78-72

+15.5

L 70-73

+5.5

USI

L 68-70

+2.5

LIN

W 71-67

−6.5

SIUE

L 50-77

−2.5

SIUE

W 77-71

+19.5

UTM

L 63-66

+2.5

over 14under 16avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois

37 games played

Straight up

28-9

76% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-976%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PSU	W 73-65	-14.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsRUTG	W 81-55	-22.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	@IOWA	W 75-69	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@NU	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsMINN	W 77-67	-15.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 21	vsMD	W 89-70	-18.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@PUR	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 29	vsWASH	W 75-66	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 1	@NEB	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 4	vsNU	W 84-44	-16.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 7	@MSU	L 82-85	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 10	vsWIS	L 90-92	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 15	vsIU	W 71-51	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 18	@USC	W 101-65	-8.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	@UCLA	L 94-95	-6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 27	vsMICH	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 154
Mar 3	vsORE	W 80-54	-17.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 8	@MD	W 78-72	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsWIS	L 88-91	-8.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 19	vsPENN	W 105-70	-25.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsVCU	W 76-55	-12.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Mar 26	vsHOU	W 65-55	+2.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 120
Mar 28	vsIOWA	W 71-59	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 130
Apr 4	vsCONN	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

PSU

W 73-65

−6.5

RUTG

W 81-55

+3.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+4.5

W 79-68

+1.5

MINN

W 77-67

−5.5

W 89-70

+0.5

PUR

W 88-82

+11.5

WASH

W 75-66

−3.5

NEB

W 78-69

+10.5

W 84-44

+23.5

MSU

L 82-85

−1.5

WIS

L 90-92

−11.5

W 71-51

+11.5

USC

W 101-65

+27.5

UCLA

L 94-95

−7.5

MICH

L 70-84

−12.5

ORE

W 80-54

+8.5

W 78-72

−8.5

WIS

L 88-91

−11.5

PENN

W 105-70

+9.5

VCU

W 76-55

+8.5

HOU

W 65-55

+12.5

IOWA

W 71-59

+5.5

CONN

L 62-71

−10.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

PSU

W 73-65

−18.5

RUTG

W 81-55

−13.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+1.5

W 79-68

−4.5

MINN

W 77-67

+1.5

W 89-70

+6.5

PUR

W 88-82

+17.5

WASH

W 75-66

−12.5

NEB

W 78-69

−7.5

W 84-44

−21.5

MSU

L 82-85

+24.5

WIS

L 90-92

+28.5

W 71-51

−31.5

USC

W 101-65

+14.5

UCLA

L 94-95

+42.5

MICH

L 70-84

−5.5

ORE

W 80-54

−13.5

W 78-72

+4.5

WIS

L 88-91

+20.5

PENN

W 105-70

+24.5

VCU

W 76-55

−20.5

HOU

W 65-55

−21.5

IOWA

W 71-59

−8.5

CONN

L 62-71

−6.5

over 15under 22avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: E Illinois 0, Illinois 2, even 3

E IllinoisBetterIllinois

G J. Elder8 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86

G M. Blackwell4.4 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 7

ILLBig

G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95

F A. Austin2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 1

ILLBig

F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94

F D. Burton NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

C T. Vogel NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

E IllinoisBetterIllinois

EIU offense360th of 366 · -14.1

ILLBig

ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4

EIU defense332nd of 366 · -8.7

ILLBig

ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

ILLBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players

ILLBig

Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+2.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestEIU betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

E Illinois

Guards

J. Elder17 minM. Blackwell16 minD. DavenportNewJ. MillerNewJ. CallowayNewS. SimsNew

Forwards

A. Austin10 minD. BurtonNewG. WelchNewD. NtambweNewE. HillsmanNew

Centers

T. VogelNew

Illinois

Guards

S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew

Centers

T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

EIU64.6 #351

ILL83.2 #24

Points per possession

EIU0.96 #350

ILL1.25 #1

Pace (possessions)

EIU67.0 #280

ILL66.5 #292

Shooting

Effective FG%

EIU45.7 #353

ILL54.7 #46

3-point %

EIU31.7 #292

ILL34.5 #142

3-point attempt rate

EIU29.9 #352

ILL49.7 #15

Free throw rate

EIU33.5 #224

ILL33.2 #232

Possessions

Turnover rate

EIU18.6 #301

ILL13.1 #9

Offensive rebound rate

EIU28.2 #256

ILL39.2 #3

Assists per game

EIU11.1 #336

ILL14.2 #133

Defense

Points allowed

EIU72.2 #111

ILL68.8 #45

Points allowed per possession

EIU1.08 #152

ILL1.03 #61

Opponent effective FG%

EIU50.8 #146

ILL47.3 #26

Opponent 3-point %

EIU31.7 #50

ILL31.3 #38

Turnovers forced

EIU19.3 #37

ILL11.6 #365

Defensive rebound rate

EIU64.8 #343

ILL73.3 #28

Steals per game

EIU7.5 #78

ILL3.7 #365

Blocks per game

EIU2.9 #251

ILL4.6 #28

EIU		ILL
Scoring
64.6 #351	Points per game	83.2 #24
0.96 #350	Points per possession	1.25 #1
67.0 #280	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #292
Shooting
45.7 #353	Effective FG%	54.7 #46
31.7 #292	3-point %	34.5 #142
29.9 #352	3-point attempt rate	49.7 #15
33.5 #224	Free throw rate	33.2 #232
Possessions
18.6 #301	Turnover rate	13.1 #9
28.2 #256	Offensive rebound rate	39.2 #3
11.1 #336	Assists per game	14.2 #133
Defense
72.2 #111	Points allowed	68.8 #45
1.08 #152	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #61
50.8 #146	Opponent effective FG%	47.3 #26
31.7 #50	Opponent 3-point %	31.3 #38
19.3 #37	Turnovers forced	11.6 #365
64.8 #343	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #28
7.5 #78	Steals per game	3.7 #365
2.9 #251	Blocks per game	4.6 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

E Illinois

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Martin63–66
Wvs SIUE77–71
L@ SIUE50–77
W@ Lindenwood Lions71–67
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles68–70

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn62–71
Wvs Iowa71–59
Wvs Houston65–55
Wvs VCU76–55
Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.

Eastern Illinois Panthers at Illinois Fighting Illini

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Illinois

Illinois

Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

E Illinois

Illinois