1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 20
  3. SHSU @ BOIS
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 20

Sam Houston Bearkats at Boise State Broncos

ExtraMile Arena · at Boise St
#189SHSUSam Houston
@
#86BOISBoise St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SHSUThis seasonBOIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOIS 83–69 · win probability BOIS 89%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOIS has more of the edges

SHSU 2, BOIS 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BOISBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SHSU 34.4, BOIS 42.7. Allowed: SHSU 36.7, BOIS 32.1
BOISBig
BOIS offense vs SHSU defense
Offense 94th of 366 against a defense 228th, on the model’s ratings
SHSUBig
Three-pointers
SHSU hits 37.2% and allows 32.5%; BOIS hits 34.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 35.8% and 43.1% of their shots
BOISSmall
SHSU offense vs BOIS defense
Offense 154th of 366 against a defense 74th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SHSU plays 70.7 a game (88th fastest), BOIS 68.3 (215th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
SHSU has played the 138th-hardest schedule, BOIS the 82nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
SHSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SHSU 16.8%, BOIS 16.9%. Forced: SHSU 16.1%, BOIS 14.6%
BOISSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SHSU 35.9%, BOIS 33.2%. Defensive: SHSU 69.9%, BOIS 76.4%
BOISSmall
Home court
BOIS at home. This season: BOIS 0-0 at home, SHSU 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SHSU 52.5 and allows 51.4; BOIS 52.2 and allows 52.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SHSU 29%, BOIS 34%. Transfers in: SHSU 2, BOIS 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BOIS -14.1—
Total—152.1—
Projected score—SHSU 69 · BOIS 83.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBOIS -8.3—
1H total71.1—
1H projected scoreSHSU 31.4 · BOIS 39.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boise St has the better starters

Position by position: Sam Houston 0, Boise St 2, even 3
Sam HoustonBetterBoise St
G J. Begg10 pts · 2.6 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17
BOISBig
G D. Wheeler-Thomas TR14.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 67
G J. Coleman8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 41
BOISBig
G L. Washington TR9.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 5.1 ast Score 76
F E. St. Bernard TR5.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 78
Even
F D. Butka TR13.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 2.6 ast Score 66
F M. Dann2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 58
Even
F J. Stanback TR8.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 62
F R. Greppi TR0 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Carmichael7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
Sam HoustonBetterBoise St
SHSU offense154th of 366 · -4.7
BOISSmall
BOIS defense74th of 366 · +0.7
SHSU defense228th of 366 · -6.1
BOISBig
BOIS offense94th of 366 · -0.5
Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players
BOISBig
Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+1.0 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+1.3 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSHSU betterBOIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Sam Houston
Guards
J. Begg27 minJ. Coleman22 minZ. PipkinNewA. McDowellNewN. NguyenNewK. PartainNew
Forwards
E. St. Bernard18 min · TRM. Dann9 minR. Greppi1 min · TRC. Sadibou NdiayeNewY. OkeNewA. LoustauNew
Boise St
Guards
D. Wheeler-Thomas31 min · TRL. Washington29 min · TRA. Neto19 minJ. Bowie5 minR. Bergersen2 minB. Ramirez2 min
Forwards
D. Butka34 min · TRJ. Stanback25 min · TRP. Carmichael19 minS. Ahrens13 minB. Buom5 minE. Lathan2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SHSUBOIS
Scoring
80.0 #67Points per game77.4 #108
1.13 #78Points per possession1.13 #82
70.7 #88Pace (possessions)68.3 #215
Shooting
52.5 #128Effective FG%52.2 #138
37.2 #243-point %34.3 #151
35.8 #2533-point attempt rate43.1 #114
34.4 #199Free throw rate42.7 #23
Possessions
16.8 #186Turnover rate16.9 #195
35.9 #25Offensive rebound rate33.2 #85
14.9 #95Assists per game12.4 #258
Defense
76.9 #237Points allowed73.2 #137
1.09 #191Points allowed per possession1.08 #145
51.4 #180Opponent effective FG%52.6 #250
32.5 #89Opponent 3-point %34.4 #213
16.1 #220Turnovers forced14.6 #317
69.9 #168Defensive rebound rate76.4 #3
7.0 #128Steals per game4.6 #350
2.6 #288Blocks per game2.1 #339
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Sam Houston

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ New Mexico83–107
  • Lvs Kennesaw St73–79
  • Wvs New Mexico St69–61
  • L@ Liberty72–79
  • L@ Delaware80–83

A week or more of rest.

Boise St

19-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs San José St74–84
  • W@ Colorado St78–67
  • Wvs San Diego St86–77
  • W@ Fresno St69–53
  • Wvs Wyoming72–62

A week or more of rest.