1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. WIN @ ILL
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Winthrop Eagles at Illinois Fighting Illini

State Farm Center · at Illinois
#205WINWinthrop
@
#4ILLIllinois AP #3
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
WINThis seasonILL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 97–61 · win probability ILL 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 158.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

WIN 1, ILL 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ILLBig
ILL offense vs WIN defense
Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 298th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
WIN has played the 206th-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ILLBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: WIN 49.7 and allows 51.5; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: WIN plays 72.0 a game (35th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points
ILLBig
WIN offense vs ILL defense
Offense 135th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
ILLSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: WIN 13%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: WIN 5, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
ILLSmall
Three-pointers
WIN hits 33.2% and allows 32.9%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 44.1% and 49.7% of their shots
WINSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: WIN 14.7%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: WIN 16.6%, ILL 11.6%
ILLSmall
Home court
ILL at home. This season: ILL 0-0 at home, WIN 0-0 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: WIN 34.1%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: WIN 72.3%, ILL 73.3%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: WIN 44.0, ILL 33.2. Allowed: WIN 39.0, ILL 19.7
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ILL -36.1—
Total—158.5—
Projected score—WIN 61.2 · ILL 97.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadILL -21.4—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreWIN 26.3 · ILL 47.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: Winthrop 0, Illinois 5, even 0
WinthropBetterIllinois
G M. Davis TR9.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 12
ILLBig
G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86
G S. Sims TR9.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
ILLBig
G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95
G A. Smith TR7.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 60
ILLSmall
F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94
G S. Hendawy5.2 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast Score 30
ILLSmall
F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58
F G. Natsvlishvili TR7.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 1 ast Score 43
ILLBig
C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
WinthropBetterIllinois
WIN offense135th of 366 · -3.9
ILLBig
ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4
WIN defense298th of 366 · -7.6
ILLBig
ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7
Backcourt-5.8 · 4 players
ILLBig
Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
ILLBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Bench-1.7 · 4 players
ILLBig
Bench+2.9 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestWIN betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Winthrop
Guards
M. Davis26 min · TRS. Sims25 min · TRA. Smith18 min · TRS. Hendawy16 minK. Fisher11 min · TRH. Harrison2 min
Forwards
G. Natsvlishvili20 min · TRT. Hamilton7 minT. HarrisNewJ. CwikNew
Illinois
Guards
S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew
Forwards
D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew
Centers
T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
WINILL
Scoring
81.5 #40Points per game83.2 #24
1.13 #79Points per possession1.25 #1
72.0 #35Pace (possessions)66.5 #292
Shooting
49.7 #250Effective FG%54.7 #46
33.2 #2173-point %34.5 #142
44.1 #883-point attempt rate49.7 #15
44.0 #10Free throw rate33.2 #232
Possessions
14.7 #52Turnover rate13.1 #9
34.1 #63Offensive rebound rate39.2 #3
13.6 #177Assists per game14.2 #133
Defense
77.7 #261Points allowed68.8 #45
1.08 #154Points allowed per possession1.03 #61
51.5 #182Opponent effective FG%47.3 #26
32.9 #113Opponent 3-point %31.3 #38
16.6 #174Turnovers forced11.6 #365
72.3 #55Defensive rebound rate73.3 #28
6.6 #161Steals per game3.7 #365
2.7 #281Blocks per game4.6 #28
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Winthrop

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-4 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point76–91
  • Wvs Presbyterian73–71
  • Wvs Charleston So86–81
  • Wvs Presbyterian74–70
  • L@ Charleston So84–86

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn62–71
  • Wvs Iowa71–59
  • Wvs Houston65–55
  • Wvs VCU76–55
  • Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.