1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. ILST vs SCU
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Illinois State Redbirds vs Santa Clara Broncos

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#116ILSTIllinois St
vs
#106SCUSanta Clara
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ILSTThis seasonSCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 76–74 · win probability SCU 59%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

ILST 2, SCU 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ILST 16.8%, SCU 15.3%. Forced: ILST 16.0%, SCU 20.1%
ILSTBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ILST 31.6, SCU 25.5. Allowed: ILST 32.3, SCU 38.2
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ILST plays 67.7 a game (241st fastest), SCU 69.7 (135th). Faster games mean more points
ILSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8; SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0
Context
Schedule so far
ILST has played the 135th-hardest schedule, SCU the 86th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ILST 37%, SCU 42%. Transfers in: ILST 5, SCU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
SCU offense vs ILST defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
ILST offense vs SCU defense
Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%; SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 43.3% and 45.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ILST 28.0%, SCU 36.4%. Defensive: ILST 74.6%, SCU 67.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SCU -2.6—
Total—150.3—
Projected score—ILST 73.8 · SCU 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSCU -1.4—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreILST 34.4 · SCU 35.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Santa Clara has the better starters

Position by position: Illinois St 0, Santa Clara 2, even 3
Illinois StBetterSanta Clara
G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57
Even
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51
Even
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30
SCUSmall
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24
Even
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
SCUSmall
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
Illinois StBetterSanta Clara
ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9
Even
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9
Even
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players
SCUBig
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+3.4 · 4 players
ILSTBig
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestILST betterSCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Illinois St
Guards
M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min
Forwards
C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ILSTSCU
Scoring
74.1 #191Points per game82.9 #30
1.09 #151Points per possession1.18 #37
67.7 #241Pace (possessions)69.7 #135
Shooting
53.6 #77Effective FG%54.5 #53
34.9 #1263-point %34.9 #125
43.3 #1063-point attempt rate45.0 #67
31.6 #266Free throw rate25.5 #363
Possessions
16.8 #193Turnover rate15.3 #86
28.0 #268Offensive rebound rate36.4 #20
13.5 #179Assists per game16.6 #33
Defense
69.1 #49Points allowed73.5 #141
1.02 #48Points allowed per possession1.06 #117
49.8 #90Opponent effective FG%52.0 #213
33.0 #122Opponent 3-point %33.1 #127
16.0 #221Turnovers forced20.1 #20
74.6 #13Defensive rebound rate67.9 #262
5.5 #294Steals per game8.7 #14
2.3 #326Blocks per game3.6 #125
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Auburn66–88
  • W@ Dayton61–55
  • W@ Wake Forest78–75
  • Wvs Kent State79–58
  • Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.