1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. CARK @ UNF
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Central Arkansas Bears at North Florida Ospreys

UNF Arena · at North Florida
#240CARKC Arkansas
@
#333UNFNorth Florida
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CARKThis seasonUNF
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CARK 81–76 · win probability CARK 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CARK has more of the edges

CARK 3, UNF 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CARK 15.4%, UNF 17.8%. Forced: CARK 19.1%, UNF 12.8%
CARKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CARK 28.8%, UNF 25.2%. Defensive: CARK 72.6%, UNF 62.4%
CARKBig
CARK offense vs UNF defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CARK has played the 241st-hardest schedule, UNF the 168th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNFSmall
Home court
UNF at home. This season: UNF 0-0 at home, CARK 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CARK 31.2, UNF 28.8. Allowed: CARK 30.1, UNF 31.4
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: CARK plays 70.2 a game (105th fastest), UNF 72.3 (31st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CARK 62%, UNF 45%. Transfers in: CARK 2, UNF 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9; UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3
Even
UNF offense vs CARK defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%; UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 48.7% and 51.7% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CARK -5.8—
Total—156.7—
Projected score—CARK 81.2 · UNF 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCARK -3.5—
1H total73.2—
1H projected scoreCARK 38.4 · UNF 34.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

C Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: C Arkansas 2, North Florida 0, even 3
C ArkansasBetterNorth Florida
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
Even
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
CARKBig
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
CARKSmall
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
Even
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
Even
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
C ArkansasBetterNorth Florida
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
CARKBig
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
Even
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
CARKBig
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
UNFSmall
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestCARK betterUNF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CARKUNF
Scoring
79.3 #77Points per game77.1 #112
1.13 #90Points per possession1.06 #218
70.2 #105Pace (possessions)72.3 #31
Shooting
54.0 #68Effective FG%52.9 #106
35.5 #893-point %35.0 #117
48.7 #213-point attempt rate51.7 #7
31.2 #278Free throw rate28.8 #333
Possessions
15.4 #92Turnover rate17.8 #261
28.8 #240Offensive rebound rate25.2 #335
16.0 #46Assists per game13.4 #185
Defense
76.0 #216Points allowed89.6 #365
1.08 #180Points allowed per possession1.24 #364
54.9 #328Opponent effective FG%56.3 #349
35.2 #262Opponent 3-point %35.1 #253
19.1 #45Turnovers forced12.8 #360
72.6 #48Defensive rebound rate62.4 #361
8.5 #18Steals per game4.6 #352
1.9 #351Blocks per game1.4 #364
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.