Samford Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETMcCamish Pavilion · at Georgia Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Samford and Georgia Tech
SAM	This season	GT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GT 84–71 · win probability GT 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SAM 3, GT 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

SAM has played the 251st-hardest schedule, GT the 78th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GTBig

GT offense vs SAM defense

Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 224th, on the model’s ratings

SAMBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAM 41.9, GT 33.3. Allowed: SAM 32.9, GT 34.2

SAMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAM 13.4%, GT 18.6%. Forced: SAM 13.0%, GT 15.6%

GTSmall

Three-pointers

SAM hits 35.6% and allows 36.5%; GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 45.7% and 33.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: SAM plays 69.3 a game (163rd fastest), GT 71.9 (38th). Faster games mean more points

GTSmall

Home court

GT at home. This season: GT 0-0 at home, SAM 0-0 away

SAMSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAM 41%, GT 16%. Transfers in: SAM 5, GT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SAM offense vs GT defense

Offense 147th of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAM 25.3%, GT 29.9%. Defensive: SAM 74.3%, GT 69.3%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAM 53.1 and allows 51.9; GT 50.0 and allows 49.9

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GT -12.8	—
Total	—	155.5	—
Projected score	—	SAM 71.4 · GT 84.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GT -7.5	—
1H total	72.7	—
1H projected score	SAM 32.6 · GT 40.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAM LWWWL	18-12	60%	8-7	—
GT LWLLW	13-18	42%	5-14	—

Venue/role: SAM away; GT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAM OOUOO	19-11	63%	16-14
GT OUUUO	18-13	58%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAM	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
GT	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Samford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	@ UAB	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ TNTC	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ PRES	No recent meeting

Georgia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs ALCN	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ MSST	L73–85LO
Dec 6	vs MUR	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Samford

30 games played

Straight up

16-14

53% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1453%

L W W L W L L W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

L L W W W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O U O U O U O U U U O U O O O O O O U O O U U O O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183
Nov 14	@ARK	L 75-79	+24.5	W +20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 16	@CARK	W 84-77	-6.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 19	vsFGCU	L 62-77	-5.5	L −20.5	154.5	U 139
Nov 21	@NMSU	L 72-81	+8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsGAST	W 78-63	-5.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUVU	L 45-89	+7.5	L −36.5	148.5	U 134
Dec 5	@VCU	L 57-83	+19.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 140
Dec 7	vsCOR	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	166.5	O 183
Jan 1	@VMI	W 78-58	-6.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	@UNCG	L 82-89	-2.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsWCU	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 10	@UTC	L 79-88	+1.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsFUR	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 17	vsETSU	L 75-76	+3.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 21	@WOF	L 78-88	+3.5	L −6.5	154.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsUTC	W 75-64	-4.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 139
Jan 29	@FUR	L 73-78	+5.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 151
Feb 1	@WCU	W 88-74	-1.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 162
Feb 5	vsCIT	W 78-64	-13.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 142
Feb 7	vsMER	W 69-49	+1.5	W +21.5	160.5	U 118
Feb 11	vsWOF	W 97-80	-6.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 177
Feb 14	@ETSU	W 82-72	+7.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 19	@CIT	W 78-75	-10.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 21	@MER	L 86-89	+3.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 175
Feb 26	vsVMI	W 80-61	-17.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	vsUNCG	W 87-78	-8.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 7	vsFUR	L 81-86	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

ARK

L 75-79

+20.5

CARK

W 84-77

+0.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−20.5

NMSU

L 72-81

−0.5

GAST

W 78-63

+9.5

UVU

L 45-89

−36.5

VCU

L 57-83

−6.5

COR

W 93-90

+0.5

VMI

W 78-58

+13.5

UNCG

L 82-89

−9.5

WCU

W 82-77

+0.5

UTC

L 79-88

−7.5

FUR

L 73-77

−2.5

ETSU

L 75-76

+2.5

WOF

L 78-88

−6.5

UTC

W 75-64

+6.5

FUR

L 73-78

+0.5

WCU

W 88-74

+12.5

CIT

W 78-64

+0.5

MER

W 69-49

+21.5

WOF

W 97-80

+10.5

ETSU

W 82-72

+17.5

CIT

W 78-75

−7.5

MER

L 86-89

+0.5

VMI

W 80-61

+1.5

UNCG

W 87-78

+0.5

FUR

L 81-86

−6.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

ARK

L 75-79

−4.5

CARK

W 84-77

+9.5

FGCU

L 62-77

−15.5

NMSU

L 72-81

+7.5

GAST

W 78-63

−5.5

UVU

L 45-89

−14.5

VCU

L 57-83

−14.5

COR

W 93-90

+16.5

VMI

W 78-58

−18.5

UNCG

L 82-89

+19.5

WCU

W 82-77

+5.5

UTC

L 79-88

+18.5

FUR

L 73-77

+0.5

ETSU

L 75-76

+2.5

WOF

L 78-88

+11.5

UTC

W 75-64

−13.5

FUR

L 73-78

+1.5

WCU

W 88-74

+7.5

CIT

W 78-64

−4.5

MER

W 69-49

−42.5

WOF

W 97-80

+26.5

ETSU

W 82-72

+8.5

CIT

W 78-75

+9.5

MER

L 86-89

+18.5

VMI

W 80-61

−14.5

UNCG

W 87-78

+8.5

FUR

L 81-86

+19.5

over 19under 11avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia Tech

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W W W L W L W L W L W L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 31	@DUKE	L 79-85	+27.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsBC	W 65-53	-6.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsSYR	L 72-82	+2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@MIA	L 81-91	+15.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 14	vsPITT	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	@NCSU	W 78-74	+17.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 24	vsCLEM	L 63-77	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 27	@VT	L 65-71	+9.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNC	L 75-91	+9.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 4	@CAL	L 85-90	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	@STAN	L 72-95	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	vsWAKE	L 67-83	+3.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	@ND	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 18	vsUVA	L 68-94	+13.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	@LOU	L 70-87	+23.5	W +6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 28	vsFSU	L 71-80	+5.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	vsCAL	L 65-76	+2.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@CLEM	L 76-79	+15.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+21.5

W 65-53

+5.5

SYR

L 72-82

−7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+5.5

PITT

L 66-89

−21.5

NCSU

W 78-74

+21.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−5.5

L 65-71

+3.5

UNC

L 75-91

−6.5

CAL

L 85-90

+2.5

STAN

L 72-95

−13.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−12.5

L 74-89

−9.5

UVA

L 68-94

−12.5

LOU

L 70-87

+6.5

FSU

L 71-80

−3.5

CAL

L 65-76

−8.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+10.5

W 65-53

−27.5

SYR

L 72-82

+7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+15.5

PITT

L 66-89

+9.5

NCSU

W 78-74

−2.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−2.5

L 65-71

−19.5

UNC

L 75-91

+5.5

CAL

L 85-90

+22.5

STAN

L 72-95

+15.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−8.5

L 74-89

+12.5

UVA

L 68-94

+11.5

LOU

L 70-87

−10.5

FSU

L 71-80

−7.5

CAL

L 65-76

−13.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+9.5

over 18under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Samford 1, Georgia Tech 3, even 1

SamfordBetterGeorgia Tech

G N. George TR11.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25

GTBig

G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87

G C. Norris8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2 ast Score 34

GTBig

G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98

G C. Noard TR19 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 94

SAMBig

G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

G I. Campbell-Finch7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13

GTBig

F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74

G T. Davis TR1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 22

No call

F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked

SamfordBetterGeorgia Tech

SAM offense147th of 366 · -4.5

Even

GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1

SAM defense224th of 366 · -5.9

GTBig

GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

GTBig

Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players

Bench-3.6 · 5 players

GTSmall

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSAM betterGT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Samford

Guards

N. George35 min · TRC. Norris31 minC. Noard29 min · TRI. Campbell-Finch24 minT. Davis11 min · TRW. Miller9 min · TR

Forwards

J. Bjornstad8 minB. MacVicar7 min · TRC. Harrison3 minJ. HughesNewB. KempNew

Centers

W. Shaver9 minL. LeeNew

Georgia Tech

Guards

N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew

Forwards

V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew

Centers

C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAM77.8 #98

GT73.8 #208

Points per possession

SAM1.12 #99

GT1.03 #292

Pace (possessions)

SAM69.3 #163

GT71.9 #38

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAM53.1 #101

GT50.0 #234

3-point %

SAM35.6 #84

GT35.1 #109

3-point attempt rate

SAM45.7 #54

GT33.1 #313

Free throw rate

SAM41.9 #32

GT33.3 #229

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAM13.4 #11

GT18.6 #306

Offensive rebound rate

SAM25.3 #333

GT29.9 #203

Assists per game

SAM14.3 #128

GT15.8 #55

Defense

Points allowed

SAM77.0 #240

GT77.4 #247

Points allowed per possession

SAM1.11 #251

GT1.08 #148

Opponent effective FG%

SAM51.9 #206

GT49.9 #94

Opponent 3-point %

SAM36.5 #326

GT33.1 #134

Turnovers forced

SAM13.0 #354

GT15.6 #244

Defensive rebound rate

SAM74.3 #17

GT69.3 #189

Steals per game

SAM4.4 #358

GT6.1 #229

Blocks per game

SAM2.7 #277

GT3.9 #80

SAM		GT
Scoring
77.8 #98	Points per game	73.8 #208
1.12 #99	Points per possession	1.03 #292
69.3 #163	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #38
Shooting
53.1 #101	Effective FG%	50.0 #234
35.6 #84	3-point %	35.1 #109
45.7 #54	3-point attempt rate	33.1 #313
41.9 #32	Free throw rate	33.3 #229
Possessions
13.4 #11	Turnover rate	18.6 #306
25.3 #333	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #203
14.3 #128	Assists per game	15.8 #55
Defense
77.0 #240	Points allowed	77.4 #247
1.11 #251	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #148
51.9 #206	Opponent effective FG%	49.9 #94
36.5 #326	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #134
13.0 #354	Turnovers forced	15.6 #244
74.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #189
4.4 #358	Steals per game	6.1 #229
2.7 #277	Blocks per game	3.9 #80

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Samford

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman81–86
Wvs UNC Greensboro87–78
Wvs VMI80–61
L@ Mercer86–89
W@ The Citadel78–75

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Clemson76–79
Lvs California65–76
Lvs Florida St71–80
L@ Louisville70–87
Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Samford Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Samford

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Samford

Georgia Tech