1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 2
  3. SAM @ UAB
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

Samford Bulldogs at UAB Blazers

Bartow Arena · at UAB
#184SAMSamford
@
#102UABUAB
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SAMThis seasonUAB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UAB 83–72 · win probability UAB 82%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 154.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UAB has more of the edges

SAM 2, UAB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UABBig
UAB offense vs SAM defense
Offense 82nd of 366 against a defense 224th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SAM has played the 251st-hardest schedule, UAB the 129th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UABSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SAM 25.3%, UAB 32.5%. Defensive: SAM 74.3%, UAB 72.3%
UABSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SAM 13.4%, UAB 12.6%. Forced: SAM 13.0%, UAB 16.1%
SAMSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SAM 41%, UAB 10%. Transfers in: SAM 5, UAB 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UABSmall
Home court
UAB at home. This season: UAB 0-0 at home, SAM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SAM plays 69.3 a game (163rd fastest), UAB 71.2 (61st). Faster games mean more points
SAMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SAM 53.1 and allows 51.9; UAB 48.4 and allows 50.0
Even
Three-pointers
SAM hits 35.6% and allows 36.5%; UAB hits 27.8% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 30.5% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SAM 41.9, UAB 36.4. Allowed: SAM 32.9, UAB 28.6
Even
SAM offense vs UAB defense
Offense 147th of 366 against a defense 141st, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UAB -10.4—
Total—154.6—
Projected score—SAM 72.1 · UAB 82.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUAB -6.1—
1H total72.3—
1H projected scoreSAM 33.1 · UAB 39.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UAB has the better starters

Position by position: Samford 0, UAB 4, even 1
SamfordBetterUAB
G N. George TR11.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 25
UABSmall
G J. Fernandez TR16.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 56
G C. Norris8.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 2 ast Score 34
UABSmall
G J. Elyzee TR11.1 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 61
G C. Noard TR19 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 94
Even
G D. Jones TR16.4 pts · 4 reb · 3.4 ast Score 91
G I. Campbell-Finch7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 13
UABBig
G E. Duval TR15.6 pts · 4 reb · 3.5 ast Score 74
G T. Davis TR1.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 22
UABSmall
G T. Caldwell TR9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 56
SamfordBetterUAB
SAM offense147th of 366 · -4.5
Even
UAB defense141st of 366 · -3.1
SAM defense224th of 366 · -5.9
UABBig
UAB offense82nd of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players
UABBig
Backcourt+2.8 · 5 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
UABSmall
Bench-1.4 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSAM betterUAB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Samford
Guards
N. George35 min · TRC. Norris31 minC. Noard29 min · TRI. Campbell-Finch24 minT. Davis11 min · TRW. Miller9 min · TR
Forwards
J. Bjornstad8 minB. MacVicar7 min · TRC. Harrison3 minJ. HughesNewB. KempNew
Centers
W. Shaver9 minL. LeeNew
UAB
Guards
J. Fernandez37 min · TRJ. Elyzee30 min · TRD. Jones29 min · TRE. Duval27 min · TRT. Caldwell20 min · TRS. London20 min
Forwards
A. Alston8 min · TRA. Sandlin-ElNew
Centers
M. MboleNewK. DavisNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SAMUAB
Scoring
77.8 #98Points per game78.2 #92
1.12 #99Points per possession1.10 #141
69.3 #163Pace (possessions)71.2 #61
Shooting
53.1 #101Effective FG%48.4 #305
35.6 #843-point %27.8 #364
45.7 #543-point attempt rate30.5 #350
41.9 #32Free throw rate36.4 #141
Possessions
13.4 #11Turnover rate12.6 #2
25.3 #333Offensive rebound rate32.5 #104
14.3 #128Assists per game14.2 #135
Defense
77.0 #240Points allowed74.3 #168
1.11 #251Points allowed per possession1.04 #79
51.9 #206Opponent effective FG%50.0 #98
36.5 #326Opponent 3-point %32.6 #95
13.0 #354Turnovers forced16.1 #217
74.3 #17Defensive rebound rate72.3 #53
4.4 #358Steals per game7.5 #74
2.7 #277Blocks per game3.5 #139
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Samford

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman81–86
  • Wvs UNC Greensboro87–78
  • Wvs VMI80–61
  • L@ Mercer86–89
  • W@ The Citadel78–75

A week or more of rest.

UAB

19-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Charlotte78–83
  • Wvs East Carolina90–83
  • W@ Charlotte80–74
  • Lvs North Texas58–62
  • W@ Memphis78–67

A week or more of rest.